Mechanism-based model of a mass rapid transit system: A perspective

作     者：Erika Fille Legara Lee Kee Khoon Hung Gih Guang Christopher Monterola 

作者机构：Complex Systems Group Institute of High Performance Computing Computing Science Agency for Science Technology and Research 1 Fusionopolis Way Connexis (North Tower) Singapore 138632 Singapore 

出 版 物：《International Journal of Modern Physics: Conference Series》 

年 卷 期：2015年第ijmpcs卷第36期

学科分类：07[理学] 0702[理学-物理学] 

主　　题：Agent-based modelling transport dynamics power law rail transport system 

摘      要：In this paper, we discuss our findings on the spatiotemporal dynamics within the mass rapid transit (MRT) system of Singapore. We show that the trip distribution of Origin-Destination (OD) station pairs follows a power-law, implying the existence of critical OD pairs. We then present and discuss the empirically validated agent-based model (ABM) we have developed. The model allows recreation of the observed statistics and the setting up of various scenarios and their effects on the system, such as increasing the commuter population and the propagation of travel delays within the transportation network. The proposed model further enables identification of bottlenecks that can cause the MRT to break down, and consequently provide foresight on how such disruptions can possibly be managed. This can potentially provide a versatile approach for transport planners and government regulators to make quantifiable policies that optimally balance cost and convenience as a function of the number of the commuting public.