Modeling Uncertainty with Fuzzy Logic

丛 书 名：Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing

版本说明：1

作     者：Asli Celikyilmaz I. Burhan Türksen 

I S B N：(纸本) 9783540899235;9783642100635 

出 版 社：Springer Berlin  Heidelberg 

出 版 年：1000年

页      数：XLVIII, 400页

主 题 词：Computer-Aided Engineering (CAD, CAE) and Design Mathematical and Computational Engineering Artificial Intelligence 

摘      要：The world we live in is pervaded with uncertainty and imprecision. Is it likely to rain this afternoon? Should I take an umbrella with me? Will I be able to find parking near the campus? Should I go by bus? Such simple questions are a c- mon occurrence in our daily lives. Less simple examples: What is the probability that the price of oil will rise sharply in the near future? Should I buy Chevron stock? What are the chances that a bailout of GM, Ford and Chrysler will not s- ceed? What will be the consequences? Note that the examples in question involve both uncertainty and imprecision. In the real world, this is the norm rather than exception. There is a deep-seated tradition in science of employing probability theory, and only probability theory, to deal with uncertainty and imprecision. The mon- oly of probability theory came to an end when fuzzy logic made its debut. H- ever, this is by no means a widely accepted view. The belief persists, especially within the probability community, that probability theory is all that is needed to deal with uncertainty. To quote a prominent Bayesian, Professor Dennis Lindley, “The only satisfactory description of uncertainty is probability.