Bayesian data assimilation for estimating epidemic evolution: A COVID-19 study

作     者：Yang, Xian Wang, Shuo Xing, Yuting Li, Ling Xu, Richard Yi Da Friston, Karl J. Guo, Yike 

作者机构：Department of Computer Science Hong Kong Baptist University Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Hong Kong Data Science Institute Imperial College London United Kingdom Digital Medical Research Center School of Basic Medical Sciences Fudan University China Shanghai Key Laboratory of Medical Image Computing and Computer Assisted Intervention China School of Computing University of Kent United Kingdom Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology University of Technology Sydney Australia Institute of Neurology University College London United Kingdom 

出 版 物：《arXiv》 (arXiv)

年 卷 期：2020年

核心收录：

主　　题：Cell proliferation 

摘      要：The evolution of epidemiological parameters, such as instantaneous reproduction number Rt, is important for understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Current estimates of time-varying epidemiological parameters often face problems such as lagging observations, averaging inference, and improper quantification of uncertainties. To address these problems, we propose a Bayesian data assimilation framework for time-varying parameter estimation. Specifically, this framework is applied to Rt estimation, resulting in the state-of-the-art DARt system. With DARt, time misalignment caused by lagging observations is tackled by incorporating observation delays into the joint inference of infections and Rt;the drawback of averaging is overcome by instantaneously updating upon new observations and developing a model selection mechanism that captures abrupt changes;the uncertainty is quantified and reduced by employing Bayesian smoothing. We validate the performance of DARt and demonstrate its power in revealing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. The proposed approach provides a promising solution for accurate and timely estimating transmission dynamics from reported data. Copyright © 2020, The Authors. All rights reserved.