Projection of droughts and their socioeconomic exposures based on terrestrial water storage anomaly over China

作     者：Jiabo YIN Shenglian GUO Yan YANG Jie CHEN Lei GU Jun WANG Shaokun HE Boyang WU Jinghua XIONG 

作者机构：State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering ScienceWuhan UniversityWuhan 430072China Key Laboratory of Surveying and Mapping Science and Geospatial Information Technology of MNRChinese Academy of Surveying and MappingBeijing 100830China School of Civil and Hydraulic EngineeringHuazhong University of Science and TechnologyWuhan 430074China School of Environmental Science and EngineeringSouthern University of Science and TechnologyShenzhen 518055China Department of GeoCivil and Environmental EngineeringTechnical University of MunichMunich 80333Germany 

出 版 物：《Science China Earth Sciences》 (中国科学（地球科学英文版）)

年 卷 期：2022年第65卷第9期

页      面：1772-1787页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 08[工学] 081501[工学-水文学及水资源] 0815[工学-水利工程] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 52009091) the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. 2042022kf1221) 

主　　题：Climate change Terrestrial water storage Drought Gravity satellite Socioeconomic 

摘      要：Global warming has altered the thermodynamic and dynamic environments of the climate system, thus affecting the energy budget and water cycle process of the land-atmosphere system. Under changes in key hydrological elements such as precipitation, runoff, and terrestrial water storage, future drought variation remains a complex question. Existing studies have utilized terrestrial water storage anomaly(TWSA) in drought monitoring and assessment, but they usually focused on either drought duration or intensity, overlooking the multi-faced attributes of droughts as well as their socioeconomic impacts under a non-stationary condition. In this study, we first identify dry/wet conditions over China using GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite observations, and then evaluate the feedback effects of humidity and energy factors(e.g., sensible heat flux, latent heat flux,atmospheric relative humidity, and convective available potential energy) to drought events. Future changes in TWSA and dry/wet conditions are projected by eight Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) global climate models(GCMs)under three shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs), with their biases corrected by a trend-preserving quantile mapping *** time-varying Copula function of drought duration and intensity is constructed by a moving windows method, and future bivariate drought risks are quantified with the most likely realization method. The population and GDP affected by increasing drought risks are finally quantified based on the SSPs data. It is found that the land-atmosphere coupling effects closely interact with drought evolution, and the uneven distribution of water resources is projected to be further aggravated, with most areas of China will be threatened by continuous drying tendency. By the end of the century, the duration of moderate, severe and exceptional droughts in some regions of China will double, and the drought intensity will increase by over 80%. For the 50-year bivariate droughts