Assimilation of All-sky Geostationary Satellite Infrared Radiances for Convection-Permitting Initialization and Prediction of Hurricane Joaquin(2015)

作     者：Lei ZHU Zhiyong MENG Yonghui WENG Fuqing ZHANG Lei ZHU;Zhiyong MENG;Yonghui WENG;and Fuqing ZHANG

作者机构：Key Laboratory of Meteorological DisasterMinistry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Laboratory for Climate and Ocean–Atmosphere StudiesDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China I.M.System Group(IMSG)at Environmental Modeling Center(EMC)NCEPNWSNOAACollege ParkMD 20740USA Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Scienceand Center for Advanced Data Assimilation and Predictability TechniquesThe Pennsylvania State UniversityUniversity ParkPennsylvania 16802USA 

出 版 物：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 (大气科学进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2022年第39卷第11期

页      面：1859-1872页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41905096) supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42030604, 41875051, and 41425018) 

主　　题：all-sky infrared radiance TC intensity EnKF inner-core structure 

摘      要：Intensity forecasting is one of the most challenging aspects of tropical cyclone(TC) forecasting. This work examines the impact of assimilating high-resolution all-sky infrared radiance observations from geostationary satellite GOES-13 on the convection-permitting initialization and prediction of Hurricane Joaquin(2015) with an ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)based on the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. Given that almost all operational global and regional models struggled to capture Hurricane Joaquin(2015) s intensity, this study examines the potential in improving Joaquin s prediction when assimilating all-sky infrared radiances from GOES-13 s water vapor channel. It is demonstrated that, after a few 3-hour cycles assimilating all-sky radiance, the WRF model was able to forecast reasonably well Joaquin s intensity,including its rapid intensification(RI). The improvement was largely due to a more realistic initial hurricane structure with a stronger, warmer, and more compact inner-core. Ensemble forecasts were used to further explore the important physical mechanisms driving the hurricane s RI. Results showed that the RI forecasts were greatly impacted by the initial inner-core vortex structure.