Perceived vs. Objective Human Performance in Diagnostic Tasks: Under-Confidence or Over-Confidence?

作     者：Lyu, Xi Li, Zhizhong Ma, Quan She, Manrong 

作者机构：Science and Technology on Reactor System Design Technology Laboratory Nuclear Power Institute of China Chengdu610213 China Department of Industrial Engineering Tsinghua University Beijing100084 China 

出 版 物：《SSRN》 

年 卷 期：2022年

核心收录：

主　　题：Information retrieval 

摘      要：Humans are not very good at assessing their own performance, and usually exhibit over-confidence. Little effort has been done to investigate how and how well diagnosticians perceive their performance of sub-processes of diagnosis, for example information seeking and information integration. This study analyzed the performance data of an experiment of diagnosing an accident in a simulated nuclear power plant. The objective performance was measured by eight indicators and the perceived performance was measured by three indicators. Difference relations and correlations between these indictors were explored. Results showed that on one hand there were systematic deviations between perceived and objective performance, on the other hand the perceptions did have some validity. Perceptions of information seeking manifested under-confidence while perceptions of information integration and the overall diagnosis manifested over-confidence. The authors argue that these two biases were mutually complementary and facilitating rather than contradictory. The findings could be used to help diagnosis-related training, operation and decision making. © 2022, The Authors. All rights reserved.