Modelling and Simulation of Significant Wave Height in the Monsoon Area

作     者：Nasir, Faerah Taib, Che Mohd Imran Che Ariffin, Effi Helmy Padlee, Siti Falindah Mohd Akhir, Mohd Fadzil Ahmad, Mohammad Fadhli Yusoff, Binyamin 

作者机构：Faculty of Science and Marine Environment Universiti Malaysia Terengganu Kuala Terengganu21300 Malaysia Faculty of Ocean Engineering Technology and Informatics Universiti Malaysia Terengganu Kuala Terengganu21030 Malaysia Institute of Oceanography and Environment Universiti Malaysia Terengganu Kuala Terengganu21300 Malaysia Faculty of Business Economics and Social Development Universiti Malaysia Terengganu Kuala Terengganu21300 Malaysia 

出 版 物：《SSRN》 

年 卷 期：2022年

核心收录：

主　　题：Time series 

摘      要：The aims of this paper are to model and simulate the dynamics of significant wave height for both long term (decadal) and northeast monsoon using a discrete-time stochastic process. We take the data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) database at particular point of offshore Terengganu, Malaysia at the south-western of the South China Sea as our empirical case. The data are decomposed into non-stationary and stationary component. We model the non-stationary component for both long term and northeast monsoon data using Fourier series, while the stationary component is modelled using an autoregressive process of order 2 with stationary white noise residuals are fitted to the t location-scale distribution. Finally, the model is used to simulate the significant wave height dynamics which well-represents the behaviour of the time series. The simulated time series can act as one of the inputs to the coastal response study, including both long term prediction of coastal response, investigation of coastal response during Northeast monsoon season and further development of other seasonal component model for South China Sea. © 2022, The Authors. All rights reserved.