Bottleneck prediction and data-driven discrete-event simulation for a balanced manufacturing line

作     者：Eugénio M. Rocha Maria J. Lopes 

作者机构：Department of Mathematics University of Aveiro 3810 Portugal Center for Research and Development in Mathematics and Applications (CIDMA) Aveiro 3810 Portugal Bosch Termotecnologia S.A. 3800 Portugal 

出 版 物：《Procedia Computer Science》 

年 卷 期：2022年第200卷

页      面：1145-1154页

主　　题：data-driven discrete-event simulation bottleneck prediction machine learning manufacturing lines 

摘      要：Bottleneck identification is a relevant tool for continuous optimization of production lines. In this work, we implement a data-driven discrete-event simulator (DDS) based on experimental distributions, obtained from real historical data. The DDS allows to analyse the behavior of a balanced manufacturing line at Bosch Thermotechnology, under different hypotheses. It shows that some scenarios perceived as likely to increase output may actually decrease production metrics, reveals the importance of line injection rates, and leads to the need for adequate real time bottleneck forecasting tools, which allow shift managers intervention in a useful time frame. Eleven prediction models are tested, where a random forest and a multi-layer perceptron attain the best performances (above 95% in all metrics). This data flow is operationalized through a micro-services pipeline which is briefly discussed.