Incremental Propensity Score Effects for Criminology: An Application Assessing the Relationship Between Homelessness, Behavioral Health Problems, and Recidivism

作     者：Jacobs, Leah A. McClean, Alec Branson, Zach Kennedy, Edward Fixler, Alex 

作者机构：School of Social Work University of Pittsburgh PittsburghPA United States Statistics and Data Science Department Dietrich School of Humanities and Social Sciences Carnegie Mellon University PittsburghPA United States School of Social Work 2217D Cathedral of Learning 4200 Fifth Avenue PittsburghPA15260 United States 

出 版 物：《arXiv》 (arXiv)

年 卷 期：2023年

核心收录：

摘      要：Objectives: This study examines the relationship between homelessness and recidivism among people on probation with and without behavioral health problems. The study also illustrates a new way to summarize the effect of an exposure on an outcome, the Incremental Propensity Score (IPS) effect, which avoids pitfalls of other approaches commonly used in criminology. Methods: We assessed the impact of homelessness at probation start on rearrest within one year among a cohort of people on probation (n = 2,453). We estimated IPS effects, considering general and crime-specific recidivism if subjects were more or less likely to be unhoused, and assessed effect variation by behavioral health problem status. We used a doubly robust machine learning estimator to flexibly but efficiently estimate effects. Results: A substantial intervention – reducing homelessness by roughly 65% – corresponded to a 9% reduction in the estimated average rate of recidivism (p © 2023, CC BY.