Evaluation of Seasonal Climate Predictability Considering the Duration of Climate Indices

作     者：Kim, Chul-Gyum Lee, Jeongwoo Lee, Jeong Eun Kim, Hyeonjun 

作者机构：Korea Inst Civil Engn & Bldg Technol Dept Hydro Sci & Engn Res 283 Goyang Daero Goyang Si 10223 South Korea 

出 版 物：《WATER》 (水)

年 卷 期：2023年第15卷第18期

页      面：3291页

核心收录：

学科分类：0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 08[工学] 081501[工学-水文学及水资源] 0815[工学-水利工程] 

基　　金：Korea Environment Industry amp Technology Institute(KEITI) through the Water Management Program for Drought Project Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) 

主　　题：seasonal forecasting teleconnection multiple linear regression model climate indices 

摘      要：This study examines the long-term climate predictability in the Seomjin River basin using statistical methods, and explores the effects of incorporating the duration of climate indices as predictors. A multiple linear regression model is employed, utilizing 44 climate indices as predictors, including global climate patterns and local meteorological factors specific to the area. The analysis focuses on teleconnections between the target variables and climate indices, considering the value of each index, not only for the corresponding month, but also for an average value over a duration of 2 and 3 months. The correlation analysis reveals that considering the duration of climate indices allows for the inclusion of predictors with higher correlation, leading to improved forecasting accuracy. The goodness of fit analysis, which compares predicted mean values with observed values on a monthly basis, indicates that neither precipitation nor temperature is significantly affected by the duration. However, the tercile hit rate analysis, comparing the results with historical data, shows a 34.7% hit rate for precipitation, both before and after, reflecting the duration of indices. Notably, for long lead times (10-12 months), the hit rate improves after incorporating the duration. In contrast, for temperature, the tercile hit rate is higher before considering the duration. Nonetheless, both precipitation and temperature exhibit hit rates higher than the baseline probability of 33.3%, affirming the reliability of long-term forecasts in the Seomjin River basin. Incorporating the duration of climate indices enhances the selection of predictors with higher correlation, resulting in a notable impact on long-lead precipitation forecasting. However, since temperature demonstrates little irregularity and displays a consistent pattern according to the month and season, the effect of considering the duration is relatively insignificant compared to precipitation. Future research will explo