Monitoring epidemic processes under political measures

作     者：Chukhrova, Nataliya Plate, Oskar Johannssen, Arne 

作者机构：Univ Southern Denmark Maersk Mc Kinney Moller Inst Fac Engn Odense Denmark Univ Hamburg Fac Business Adm Hamburg Germany Univ Southern Denmark Maersk Mc Kinney Moller Inst Fac Engn DK-5230 Odense Denmark 

出 版 物：《STATISTICS IN MEDICINE》 (医学统计学)

年 卷 期：2024年第43卷第11期

页      面：2122-2160页

核心收录：

学科分类：0710[理学-生物学] 1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1001[医学-基础医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 0714[理学-统计学（可授理学、经济学学位）] 10[医学] 

主　　题：control charts coronavirus pandemic COVID-19 epidemiological curve infection rate prescriptive analytics 

摘      要：Statistical modeling of epidemiological curves to capture the course of epidemic processes and to implement a signaling system for detecting significant changes in the process is a challenging task, especially when the process is affected by political measures. As previous monitoring approaches are subject to various problems, we develop a practical and flexible tool that is well suited for monitoring epidemic processes under political measures. This tool enables monitoring across different epochs using a single statistical model that constantly adapts to the underlying process, and therefore allows both retrospective and on-line monitoring of epidemic processes. It is able to detect essential shifts and to identify anomaly conditions in the epidemic process, and it provides decision-makers a reliable method for rapidly learning from trends in the epidemiological curves. Moreover, it is a tool to evaluate the effectivity of political measures and to detect the transition from pandemic to endemic. This research is based on a comprehensive COVID-19 study on infection rates under political measures in line with the reporting of the Robert Koch Institute covering the entire period of the pandemic in Germany.