Adaptive real-time forecasting method of airdrome flight delay based on fuzzy immunization strategy

作     者：Ding, Jianli Yang, Haitong Gu, Bin 

作者机构：College of Computer Science and Technology Civil Aviation University of China Tianjin 300300 China Tianjin Key Lab. for Advanced Signal Processing Civil Aviation University of China Tianjin 300300 China College of Information Science and Technology Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics Nanjing 210016 China 

出 版 物：《Nanjing Hangkong Hangtian Daxue Xuebao/Journal of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics》 (Nanjing Hangkong Hangtian Daxue Xuebao)

年 卷 期：2011年第43卷第2期

页      面：257-261页

核心收录：

主　　题：Antibodies 

摘      要：To make an accurate and real-time prediction for flight delays, referring to the thought of fuzzy membership grade, a fuzzy immune prediction method is proposed. The concepts of self, nonself, antibody, antigen and a membership degree function for antibody to the delayed flight set are defined. During the prediction process, through real-time monitoring changes of the environment and self-adaptive adjusting λ-cut sets, the paper chooses detectors according with the current confidence level, and overcome the limitations of the deterministic model. The simulation experiment on a domestic airport shows that the method is adaptive and can accurately predict delayed flight numbers of each period all day.