A noisy-input generalized additive model for relative sea-level change along the Atlantic coast of North America

作     者：Upton, Maeve Parnell, Andrew Kemp, Andrew Ashe, Erica Mccarthy, Gerard Cahill, Niamh 

作者机构：Maynooth Univ Hamilton Inst Dept Math & Stat ICARUS Maynooth Ireland Tufts Univ Dept Earth & Climate Sci Boston MA USA Rutgers State Univ Dept Earth & Planetary Sci New Brunswick NJ USA Maynooth Univ ICARUS Maynooth Ireland Maynooth Univ Dept Math & Stat ICARUS Maynooth Ireland 

出 版 物：《JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES C-APPLIED STATISTICS》 (J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C Appl. Stat.)

年 卷 期：2024年第74卷第1期

页      面：34-82页

核心收录：

学科分类：0202[经济学-应用经济学] 02[经济学] 020208[经济学-统计学] 07[理学] 0714[理学-统计学（可授理学、经济学学位）] 

基　　金：Irish Marine Institute [PBA/CC/18/01] Science Foundation Ireland [17/CDA/4695, 16/IA/4520, 12/RC/2289P2] U.S. National Science Foundation CAREER award [OCE-1942563] U.S. National Science Foundation [OCE-2002437, OCE-2103754] Geological Survey Ireland [20/FFP-P/8610] Science Foundation Ireland (SFI) [16/IA/4520] Funding Source: Science Foundation Ireland (SFI) 

主　　题：Bayesian sea-level generalized additive models uncertainty 

摘      要：We propose a Bayesian, noisy-input, spatial-temporal generalized additive model to examine regional relative sea-level (RSL) changes over time. The model provides probabilistic estimates of component drivers of regional RSL change via the combination of a univariate spline capturing a common regional signal over time, random slopes and intercepts capturing site-specific (local), long-term linear trends and a spatial-temporal spline capturing residual, non-linear, local variations. Proxy and instrumental records of RSL and corresponding measurement errors inform the model and a noisy-input method accounts for proxy temporal uncertainties. Results highlight the decomposition of regional RSL changes over 3,000 years along North America s Atlantic coast. The physical process glacial isostatic adjustment prevailed before 1800 CE, with anthropogenic forcing dominating after 1900 CE.