Developing a rapid assessment framework for China earthquake disaster losses: insights from physical simulations of the Yangbi earthquake

作     者：Yilong Li Zhenguo Zhang Xiaofei Chen 

作者机构：Joint International Research Laboratory of Catastrophe Simulation and Systemic Risk Governance Beijing Normal University Zhuhai China School of National Safety and Emergency Management Beijing Normal University Zhuhai China Department of Earth and Space Sciences Southern University of Science and Technology Shenzhen China Institute of Risk Analysis Prediction and Management Southern University of Science and Technology Shenzhen China Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Geophysical High-resolution Imaging Technology Southern University of Science and Technology Shenzhen China 

出 版 物：《npj Natural Hazards》 

年 卷 期：2024年第1卷第1期

页      面：1-9页

摘      要：Earthquakes remain unpredictable and pose significant challenges to disaster preparedness. This study develops a rapid assessment framework for earthquake disaster losses based on physical simulations, demonstrated through analysis of the 2021 Ms 6.4 Yangbi earthquake. A finite fault source based on observed data is employed on a GPU-accelerated 3D strong ground motion simulation platform. The computational process considers the effects of 3D heterogeneous velocity structure and terrain. Subsequently, this data is incorporated into a mathematical model for earthquake disaster loss assessment derived from historical statistics, evaluating emergency response levels, fatalities, and economic losses. The inclusion of teleseismic data into this framework underscores its extensive applicability for rapid loss assessments, even in regions lacking local seismic data. Through comparisons with station observation waveforms and government-reported loss, the validity and practicality of the framework were substantiated. It plays a vital role in assisting emergency decisions, optimizing resource allocation, and further mitigating losses.