A new approach for evaluating regional permafrost changes:A case study in the Hoh Xil on the interior Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau

作     者：Yu-Xin ZHANG Lin ZHAO Chang-Wei XIE Guo-Jie HU Shu-Hua YANG De-Fu ZOU Yong-Ping QIAO Xiang-Fei LI Jia-Jie PENG Yu-Xin ZHANG;Lin ZHAO;Chang-Wei XIE;Guo-Jie HU;Shu-Hua YANG;De-Fu ZOU;Yong-Ping QIAO;Xiang-Fei LI;Jia-Jie PENG

作者机构：School of Geographical SciencesNanjing University of Information Science&Technology(NUIST)Nanjing 210044China Cryosphere Research Station on the Qinghai‒Tibet PlateauKey Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil EngineeringNorthwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China School of Environmental SciencesNanjing Xiaozhuang UniversityNanjing 211171China 

出 版 物：《Advances in Climate Change Research》 (气候变化研究进展(英文版))

年 卷 期：2024年第15卷第6期

页      面：1040-1056页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 0705[理学-地理学] 070501[理学-自然地理学] 

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41931180 and 42322608) the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)Program,China(2019QZKK0201) 

主　　题：Numerical modelling Permafrost change Forcing data Hoh Xil 

摘      要：The current spatial atmospheric forcing data cannot accurately depict the actual conditions of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau(QTP),where monitoring stations are scarce and unevenly *** deficiency in atmospheric data hinders accurate simulation of plateau permafrost changes on the *** this study,we develop a new approach to evaluate regional permafrost changes,which does not rely on spatially distributed meteorological data but instead uses the regional climate change processes or temperature change *** on a transient heat conduction permafrost model,this approach was applied to the Qinghai Hoh Xil National Nature Reserve(referred to as Hoh Xil)within the QTP from 1960 to 2015,using the rate of air temperature change provided by the Wudaoliang Meteorological Station,the only national station in Hoh *** results showed that the difference between the simulated and observed change rates of mean annual ground temperature(MAGT)was less than 0.04℃ per decade from 2001 to 2015 at five long-term monitoring *** simulated ground temperature profiles in four boreholes from various permafrost zones revealed an error of less than 0.7℃ below 5 m in *** validation demonstrates the reliability of this approach for predicting long-term permafrost *** regional permafrost changes were further simulated based on the latest warming scenarios(BCC-CSM2-MR)from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase *** revealed significant differences in the regional permafrost degradation rate under different climate warming *** the most severe warming scenario(SSP5-8.5),permafrost in the study area is projected to still cover 72.2%of the total area by 2100,with most of the Hoh Xil s permafrost becoming warm(MAGT−1℃)*** approach not only facilitates the simulation of frozen ground changes in areas with few meteorological monitoring stations but also provides a new perspective for using coarse-resolutio