Tropical Indian Ocean drives Hadley circulation change in a warming climate

作     者：Yong Sun Gilles Ramstein Alexey V.Fedorov Lin Ding Bo Liu Yong Sun;Gilles Ramstein;Alexey V.Fedorov;Lin Ding;Bo Liu

作者机构：State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Environment and Resources (TPESER) Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement LSCE/IPSL CEA-CNRS-UVSQ Université Paris-Saclay Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Yale University LOCEAN/IPSL Sorbonne University Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province School of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information Technology 

出 版 物：《National Science Review》 (国家科学评论(英文版))

年 卷 期：2025年第12卷第1期

页      面：91-98页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (2019QZKK0708) the National Natural Science Foundation of China Basic Science Center for Tibetan Plateau Earth System (41988101) supported by the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure Project ‘Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility’(Earth Lab) supported by NASA(80NSSC21K0558) NOAA (NA20OAR4310377) DOE (DESC0024186) the ARCHANGE Project (ANR-18-MPGA-0001, France) 

主　　题：Hadley circulation Paris Agreement tropical Indian Ocean tropical Pacific Ocean Robust responses and sources of uncertainty 

摘      要：The weakening and poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation(HC) are considered robust responses of atmospheric meridional circulation to anthropogenic warming. Climate impacts arising from these changes enhance drought conditions and reduce food production in the affected regions. Therefore, understanding the mechanisms of HC changes is critical to anticipating the resultant climate risks. First, we demonstrate that robust future HC changes in boreal winter, and the uncertainty in their future projections, are both largely related to sea surface temperature(SST) warming. Next, we investigate the impact of anthropogenic regional ocean warming on the future HC. Accordingly, we conduct a large ensemble of individual ocean basin perturbation experiments at 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C warming thresholds(as in the Paris Agreement).These experiments highlight(i) the leading role of tropical Indian Ocean warming in HC changes and(ii) inter-model differences in tropical Pacific warming as a source of uncertainty in HC projections.