Urban Air Mobility demand forecasting: modeling evidence from the case study of Milan (Italy)

作     者：Coppola, Pierluigi De Fabiis, Francesco Silvestri, Fulvio 

作者机构：Politecn Milan Dept Mech Engn Via G La Masa 1 I-20156 Milan Italy 

出 版 物：《EUROPEAN TRANSPORT RESEARCH REVIEW》 (Eur. Transp. Res. Rev.)

年 卷 期：2025年第17卷第1期

页      面：1-17页

核心收录：

学科分类：12[管理学] 0202[经济学-应用经济学] 02[经济学] 1201[管理学-管理科学与工程(可授管理学、工学学位)] 020205[经济学-产业经济学] 08[工学] 082303[工学-交通运输规划与管理] 0823[工学-交通运输工程] 

基　　金：The authors would like to acknowledge Eng. Luca Barbierato and Eng. Davide Floridi for having contributed to the data analysis and modeling carried out in the present study 

主　　题：UAM eVTOL Vertiports Discrete choice analysis Mode choice models Urban mobility Airport shuttles 

摘      要：This paper presents the results of a demand forecasting study about the introduction of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) services in the metropolitan area of Milan (Italy). Demand forecasting is based on random utility mode choice models, which include factors related to the individuals perception of vertical take-off/landing and low altitude flying over urbanized areas. The use cases of UAM services include airport shuttles, intercity air connections, and air-taxis, i.e., UAM services for short-trips within the metropolitan area. Several scenarios have been considered based on the number of access points (vertiports) and UAM fare levels. The results indicate that airport shuttles have a modal share of trips to/from airports (for both business and leisure) in a range of 2-5%. They resulted to be more attractive than air-taxis, which have a modal share in a range of 1-3%. Furthermore, the probability of choosing UAM services for intercity travels decreases with the distance and the time required for access/egress to/from the vertiports, whose catchment areas are dependent on the level of service provided by competing modes (notably the presence of good railway and highway connections).