A Cost-Oriented Score Evaluation Index to Align Probabilistic Forecasting and Uncertain Decision-Making in Power Systems

作     者：Yan, Xinyue Zhang, Haipeng Li, Ran Wan, Can Nengling, Tai Sun, Yongchao 

作者机构：Shanghai Jiao Tong University Key Laboratory of Control of Power Transmission and Conversion Ministry of Education Shanghai200240 China Shanghai Jiao Tong University College of Smart Energy Shanghai200240 China Ministry of Education Shanghai Jiao Tong University Key Laboratory of Control of Power Transmission and Conversion Shanghai200240 China Shanghai Non-Carbon Energy Conversion and Utilization Institute Shanghai200240 China Zhejiang University College of Electrical Engineering Hangzhou310027 China Southwest Branch of State Grid Corporation of China Chengdu610095 China 

出 版 物：《IEEE Transactions on Power Systems》 (IEEE Trans Power Syst)

年 卷 期：2025年第40卷第2期

页      面：1981-1984页

核心收录：

学科分类：0808[工学-电气工程] 08[工学] 

基　　金：This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 52107114  Grant 52477111  and Grant 52422706 

主　　题：Costs Probabilistic logic Forecasting Uncertainty Decision making Standards Indexes Optimization Predictive models Real-time systems 

摘      要：Existing research has shown the inconsistency between point forecasting and deterministic optimization, yet the consistency between probabilistic forecast indices and uncertain optimization has not been investigated. This letter fills this gap by undertaking scenario-based tests to reveal the mismatch and proposing a new cost-oriented score (COS) to indicate whether a probabilistic forecast can lead to a betterdecision-making performance in unit commitment and economic dispatch. © 1969-2012 IEEE.