双碳政策下中国能源消耗的转型与国际贸易的相互影响研究

作     者：谢晓青 

作者机构：贵州大学数学与统计学院贵州 贵阳 

出 版 物：《电子商务评论》 (E-Commerce Letters)

年 卷 期：2025年第14卷第1期

页      面：1672-1681页

学科分类：0202[经济学-应用经济学] 02[经济学] 020205[经济学-产业经济学] 

主　　题：线性回归模型 能源消耗 国际贸易 碳排放量预测 能源消耗量预测 

摘      要：本文探讨了双碳政策实施背景下,中国能源消耗结构转型与国际贸易的相互影响。随着全球对可持续发展的重视,中国正加速向可再生能源转型,逐步降低对化石燃料的依赖。这一转型不仅改善了国内能源安全,也重塑了国际能源贸易格局。文章基于线性回归模型预测了中国的碳排放量,并分析了近十年来的能源消耗模式和结构变化。同时,通过相关性分析揭示了能源消耗与国际贸易之间的内在联系,指出两者在全球绿色经济中的互动关系。中国的转型不仅有助于改善环境状况,还为国际市场带来了新的机遇与挑战。随着可再生能源比重的提升,中国在全球能源供应链中的地位也在发生变化。这一变化促使中国企业在技术创新和国际合作方面不断提升,从而推动国际贸易向更高标准和更环保的方向发展。总的来说,本文为理解中国在全球能源转型中的角色提供了重要洞见,强调了可持续发展与国际贸易之间的密切联系。This paper examines the relationship between the structural transformation of China’s energy consumption and international trade, with a particular focus on the implementation of peak carbon and carbon-neutral policy policies. In light of the global emphasis on sustainable development, China is accelerating its transition to renewable energy sources and gradually reducing its dependence on fossil fuels. This transition has the additional benefit of enhancing domestic energy security while simultaneously influencing the configuration of international energy trade patterns. The article employs a linear regression model to predict China’s carbon emissions and conducts an in-depth analysis of the shifts in energy consumption patterns and structures that have occurred over the past decade. Concurrently, correlation analyses elucidate the intrinsic interconnections between energy consumption and international trade, underscoring the interplay between the two in the global green economy. China’s transition not only has positive implications for environmental conditions, but also presents new opportunities and challenges for the international market. As the proportion of renewable energy sources increases, China’s role in the global energy supply chain is evolving. This shift has prompted Chinese companies to enhance their technological innovation and international collaboration, thereby propelling international trade towards higher standards and a more environmentally conscious approach. Overall, this paper offers valuable insights into China’s role in the global energy transition, underscoring the intrinsic link