版权所有:内蒙古大学图书馆 技术提供:维普资讯• 智图
内蒙古自治区呼和浩特市赛罕区大学西街235号 邮编: 010021
作者机构:Univ Western Ontario Western Sci Ctr Dept Stat & Actuarial Sci London ON N6A 5B7 Canada Brunel Univ Sch Informat Syst Comp & Math CARISMA Uxbridge Middx England Univ British Columbia Dept Chem & Biol Engn Vancouver BC V5Z 1M9 Canada
出 版 物:《INFORMATION SCIENCES》 (信息科学)
年 卷 期:2008年第178卷第1期
页 面:203-219页
核心收录:
学科分类:12[管理学] 1201[管理学-管理科学与工程(可授管理学、工学学位)] 08[工学] 0812[工学-计算机科学与技术(可授工学、理学学位)]
基 金:British Academy, (OCG-41559) Marie Curie
主 题:Hidden Markov model optimal parameter estimation regime-switching model gold price
摘 要:In this paper we illustrate the optimal filtering of log returns of commodity prices in which both the mean and volatility are modulated by a hidden Markov chain with finite state space. The optimal estimate of the Markov chain and the parameters of the price model are given in terms of discrete-time recursive filters. We provide an application on a set of high frequency gold price data for the period 1973-2006 and analyse the h-step ahead price predictions against the Diebold-Kilian metric. Within the modelling framework where the mean and volatility are switching regimes, our findings suggest that a two-state hidden Markov model is sufficient to describe the dynamics of the data and the gold price is predictable up to a certain extent in the short term but almost impossible to predict in the long term. The proposed model is also bench-marked with ARCH and GARCH models with respect to price predictability and forecasting errors. (C) 2007 Published by Elsevier Inc.