Short-term photovoltaic power prediction based on RF-SGMD-GWO-BiLSTM hybrid models

作     者：Yang, Shaomei Luo, Yuman 

作者机构：North China Elect Power Univ Dept Econ & Management 689 Huadian Rd Baoding 071000 Peoples R China 

出 版 物：《ENERGY》 (Energy)

年 卷 期：2025年第316卷

核心收录：

学科分类：0820[工学-石油与天然气工程] 08[工学] 0807[工学-动力工程及工程热物理] 

主　　题：Power prediction Feature selection Gray wolf optimization algorithm Bidirectional long and short-term memory networks 

摘      要：Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power prediction can support optimal scheduling and decision-making in energy systems. An innovative hybrid prediction model efficiently predicts complex time series data by integrating multiple advanced algorithms in a deep fusion approach. First, Random Forest (RF) is employed for feature screening and optimization to eliminate redundant features, thereby enhancing model training efficiency and prediction accuracy when dealing with complex environmental data. Subsequently, the symplectic geometry model decomposition (SGMD) technique was utilized to break down historical power signals, extracting information from various frequency components and enhancing the input features for the Bidirectional Long and Short-Term Memory Network (BiLSTM) model. Thereafter, aiming at the problem of hyperparameter tuning of the BiLSTM model, the Gray Wolf Optimization Algorithm (GWO) was used for automatic optimization to improve prediction stability. In the case studies, the proposed model exhibited impressive performance metrics: in Case Study 1, it achieved an RMSE of 1.351, an MAE of 0.666, and a MAPE of 3.786, while in Case Study 2, it recorded an RMSE of 0.487, an MAE of 0.265, and a MAPE of 6.304. The model also shows scalability and robustness across diverse climatic conditions and PV technologies, confirming its applicability to real-world scenarios.