Simulating the uptake of electric motorized two-wheelers in Italy. An agent-based model parametrized with a discrete choice experiment

作     者：Scorrano, Mariangela Danielis, Romeo 

作者机构：Univ Trieste Dipartimento Sci Econ Aziendali Matemat & Stat Bru Via A Valerio 4-1 I-34127 Trieste Italy 

出 版 物：《CASE STUDIES ON TRANSPORT POLICY》 (Case Stud. Transp. Policy)

年 卷 期：2025年第19卷

学科分类：12[管理学] 0202[经济学-应用经济学] 02[经济学] 1201[管理学-管理科学与工程(可授管理学、工学学位)] 020205[经济学-产业经济学] 08[工学] 082303[工学-交通运输规划与管理] 0823[工学-交通运输工程] 

主　　题：Mopeds/scooters Agent-based model Discrete choice experiment 

摘      要：Electric motorized two-wheelers (e-M2Ws) have the potential to reduce noise and air quality in urban environments. The paper develops an agent-based model, parametrized with a discrete choice experiment, to forecast e-M2Ws uptake in Italy. The application considers two market segments: mopeds and (seated) scooters. A scenario analysis is performed assessing the e-M2Ws prospects in different technological and policy scenarios. We find that electric mopeds enjoy a higher consumers acceptance than electric scooters. Our model predicts that they might play a relevant role in most scenarios, achieving in 2030 a market share ranging between 21.1 % and 44.2 %. On the contrary, electric scooters have much poorer prospects, achieving in 2030 a maximum of 5.5 % market share.