基于变系数Cox模型分析影响电商平台用户的决策时长的因素

作     者：毛围 汪韫頔 

作者机构：贵州大学数学与统计学院贵州 贵阳 

出 版 物：《电子商务评论》 (E-Commerce Letters)

年 卷 期：2025年第14卷第1期

页      面：3362-3373页

学科分类：08[工学] 0812[工学-计算机科学与技术（可授工学、理学学位）] 

主　　题：比例风险模型 参数估计 电商平台 下单时长 

摘      要：本文将比例风险模型应用于用户下单时长的研究,揭示影响下单时长的变量及其对用户下单决策的影响。利用比例风险模型识别影响用户下单时长的变量并对其进行参数估计,如商品价格、用户情况、促销信息、用户个体差异等。并通过实例分析评估各因素的影响程度,量化各个因素对用户下单时长的影响,并分析这些因素如何提高或延缓用户的下单决策。基于模型结果,提出优化建议,帮助电商平台改善用户体验和转化率。This paper applies the proportional hazards model to the study of the time it takes for users to place orders, revealing the variables that influence the time and their impact on users’ ordering decisions. The proportional hazards model is used to identify the variables that influence the time it takes for users to place orders and to estimate their parameters, such as product prices, user conditions, promotional information, and individual differences of users. The paper also analyzes the degree of influence of each factor through an example and quantifies the impact of each factor on the time it takes for users to place orders. It further analyzes how these factors can enhance or delay users’ ordering decisions. Based on the results of the model, the paper proposes optimization suggestions to help e-commerce platforms improve user experience and conversion rates.