A screening methodology for building multiple energy retrofit measures package considering economic and risk aspects

作     者：Zheng, Donglin Yu, Lijun Wang, Lizhen Tao, Jiangang 

作者机构：Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ Sch Mech Engn Shanghai 200240 Peoples R China Shanghai Res Inst Bldg Sci Shanghai 201108 Peoples R China Shanghai Energy Conservat Supervis Ctr Shanghai 200083 Peoples R China 

出 版 物：《JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION》 (清洁器生产杂志)

年 卷 期：2019年第208卷

页      面：1587-1602页

核心收录：

学科分类：0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 08[工学] 

基　　金：World Bank GEF Fund Shanghai Changning District, the project for the Shanghai Green Energy Construction Low-carbon Urban Project "Changning District, both building energy audit and energy-saving program preparation funding" [TF014205-CN] 

主　　题：Building energy retrofit measures package Energy saving potential Life-cycle cost Monte Carlo simulation Value-at-Risk 

摘      要：In recent years, more and more existing building has an ever increasing requirement of retrofit, which has been developed from individual measure to combination package of multiple measures. It has become the challenging task for screening building multiple energy retrofit measures package (BMERMP). In this paper, a stepwise screening methodology for BMERMP is proposed considering economic and risk aspects, which integrates Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) and Monte Carlo (MC) analysis. First of all, this paper puts forward a calculation reference table for energy saving retrofit potential. In addition, this paper also uses unit energy saving incremental cost (UESIC) to screen technology and suggests economic internal rate of return ( EIRR) as cost-benefit analysis index of BMERMP. Furthermore, the authors propose the concept of Value-at-Risk (VaR) as an effective measure to control the risk. The VaR for EIRR is determined by risk variation and can be obtained through MC simulation. Meanwhile, the study takes a commercial building for example, this building comprises 19 measures in initial BMERMP by energy diagnosis and the VaR of initial BMERMP is 97.6%, which has a high risk. According to the ranking of UESIC value, when 4 high cost technologies are reduced, the VaR can be reduced to 0.07%, then the economy of BMERMP is feasible and the risk is controllable. This paper provides a new perspective for the decision maker to select BMERMP. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.