Optimal dynamic allocation of mobile plants to monetize associated or stranded natural gas, part II: Dealing with uncertainty

作     者：Tan, Siah Hong Barton, Paul I. 

作者机构：MIT Proc Syst Engn Lab 77 Massachusetts Ave Cambridge MA 02139 USA 

出 版 物：《ENERGY》 (能源杂志)

年 卷 期：2016年第96卷

页      面：461-467页

核心收录：

学科分类：0820[工学-石油与天然气工程] 08[工学] 0807[工学-动力工程及工程热物理] 

基　　金：MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI) under the MITEI Seed Fund Program 

主　　题：Natural gas monetization Mobile modular plants Mixed-integer linear programming Two-stage stochastic programming Parametric uncertainty Bakken shale play 

摘      要：Using the Bakken shale play as a case study, the previous part of this two-part series demonstrated how small-scale mobile plants could be used to monetize associated or stranded gas effectively. Here, we address the issue of uncertainty in future supply, demand and price conditions. To this end, we modified our multi-period optimization framework to a stochastic programming framework to account for various scenarios with different parameter realizations in the future. The maximum ENPV (expected net present value) obtained was $2.01 billion, higher than the NPV obtained in the previous part. In addition, the value of the stochastic solution was 0.11% of the optimal ENPV, indicating that the flexible nature of mobile plants affords them a great advantage when dealing with uncertainty. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.