The value of considering autocorrelation between inflows in the stochastic planning of water resource systems

作     者：Rangarajan, S Simonovic, SP 

作者机构：Limno Tech Inc Washington DC 20036 USA Univ Manitoba Nat Resources Inst Winnipeg MB R3T 5V6 Canada 

出 版 物：《WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT》 (水资源管理)

年 卷 期：1999年第13卷第6期

页      面：427-442页

核心收录：

学科分类：08[工学] 0815[工学-水利工程] 0814[工学-土木工程] 

基　　金：Research and Development committee of Manitoba Hydro Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, NSERC 

主　　题：chance-constrained programming correlation analysis hydropower planning Manitoba Hydro reliability programming reservoir operation stochastic hydrology 

摘      要：Reliability programming formulations offer a family of explicit stochastic models for planning the operation of complex water resources systems. These models use cumulative probability distributions of the sum of inflows to characterize their variability in the planning period. Applicability of these models for a variety of problems has been limited, mainly due to the assumption of independence between inflows in different time periods that leads to the derivation of conservative operating policies. This paper presents three new approaches to overcome this limitation. The performance of the proposed approaches is demonstrated through comparison of the operating policies derived from these approaches and the Independent Approach. Operational planning of the Manitoba Hydro energy generation system, a predominantly hydro-based utility company in Manitoba (Canada), is used as the case study.