Strategy under uncertainty

作     者：Courtney, H Kirkland, J Viguerie, P 

作者机构：McKinsey & Co Washington DC USA McKinsey Pittsburgh PA USA McKinsey Atlanta GA USA 

出 版 物：《HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW》 (Harv Bus Rev)

年 卷 期：1997年第75卷第6期

页      面：66-+页

核心收录：

学科分类：0202[经济学-应用经济学] 02[经济学] 1202[管理学-工商管理] 1201[管理学-管理科学与工程(可授管理学、工学学位)] 

摘      要：At the heart of the traditional approach to strategy Lies the assumption that by applying a set of powerful analytic tools, executives can predict the future of any business accurately enough to allow them to choose a clear strategic direction. But what happens when the environment is so uncertain that no amount of analysis will allow us to predict the future! What makes for a good strategy in highly uncertain business environments? The authors, consultants at McKinsey & Company, argue that uncertainty requires a new way of thinking about strategy. AU too often, they say, executives take a binary view: either they underestimate uncertainty to come up with the forecasts required by their companies planning or capital-budging processes, or they overestimate it, abandon all analysis, and go with their gut instinct. The authors outline a new approach that begins by making a crucial distinction among four discrete levels of uncertainty that any company might face. They then explain how a set of generic strategies-shaping the market, adapting to it, or reserving the right to play at a later time - can be used in each of the four levels. And they illustrate how these strategies can be implemented through a combination of three basic types of actions: big bets, options, and no-regrets moves. The framework can help managers determine which analytic tools can inform decision making under uncertainty - and which cannot. At a broader level, it offers executives a discipline for thinking rigorously and systematically about uncertainty and its implications for strategy.