An epidemiological analysis of the Beijing 2008 Hand-Foot-Mouth epidemic

作     者：CAO ZhiDong ZENG DaJun WANG QuanYi ZHENG XiaoLong WANG FeiYue 

作者机构：Key Laboratory of Complex Systems and Intelligence Science Institute of Automation Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100190 China Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention Beijing 100013 China 

出 版 物：《Chinese Science Bulletin》 (中国科学通报)

年 卷 期：2010年第55卷第12期

页      面：1142-1149页

核心收录：

学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 100202[医学-儿科学] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：supported by US NSF (Grant Nos. IIS-0839990 and IIS-0428241) US DHS (Grant No. 2008-ST-061-BS0002) the Ministry of Health of the People’s Republic of China (Grant No. 2009ZX10004-315100) the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant Nos. 2F07C01 and 2F08N03) the National Natural Science Fundation of China (Grant Nos. 40901219 and 60621001) China Postdoctoral Science Fund (Grant No. 20080440559) 

主　　题：流行病学分析 疫情 北京 Weibull分布模型 作者 对数正态分布 季节变化 平均年龄 

摘      要：This paper presents an empirical analysis of the epidemiological data concerning the 18445 HFMD-infected cases in Beijing in *** main findings are as follows.(i) Seasonal variations in incidence were observed,with a peak observed during the summer season,especially in *** patients outnumber female patients by 1.57:1.(ii) Most cases occurred in children 4 years old or *** Weibull distribution and Gamma distribution as to model fitness when analyzing patient ages,log-normal distribution indicates that the estimated mean age is 3.4 years.(iii) The age distribution seems to indicate cyclic peaks with roughly one-year intervals.(iv) Correlation analyses (ρ=0.9864) show that time of birth in different months has an impact on the chance of being infected by *** month seems to present a high risk factor on infants and young children.(v) The morbidity rate is 132.7/100000 during the HFMD epidemic in Beijing in *** morbidity map shows that the risks of HFMD infection in areas close to the city center and suburbans are much lower than those in the urban-rural transition *** risks inferred from the morbidity map demonstrate a clear circular pattern.(vi) The prevention and control measures taken by the public health departments seem to be effective during the summer season,resulting in the early ending of the epidemic (one month earlier than the natural season) and reduced outbreak size.