Long-term electricity contract optimization with demand uncertainties

作     者：Chan, Pang Hui, Chi-Wai Li, Wenkai Sakamoto, Haruo Hirata, Kentaro Li, Pu 

作者机构：Hong Kong Univ Sci & Technol Dept Chem Engn Hong Kong Hong Kong Peoples R China Mitsubishi Chem Grp Proc Syst Engn & Prod Technol Res & Technol Dev Div Proc Dev & Design LabProc Syst Engn & Prod Techn Yokaichi Mie 5108530 Japan Tech Univ Berlin Inst Prozess & Anlagentech KWT9 D-10623 Berlin Germany 

出 版 物：《ENERGY》 (能源杂志)

年 卷 期：2006年第31卷第13期

页      面：2469-2485页

核心收录：

学科分类：0820[工学-石油与天然气工程] 08[工学] 0807[工学-动力工程及工程热物理] 

基　　金：Research Grant Council of Hong Kong, (DAG00/01) National Natural Science Foundation of China, NSFC, (79931000) Major State Basic Research Development Program of China, (G2000026308) 

主　　题：electricity contract optimization uncertainty probabilistic programming confidence level 

摘      要：This paper presents a study on selecting electricity contracts for a large-scale chemical production plant, which requires electricity importation, under demand uncertainty. Two common types of electricity contracts are considered, time zone (TZ) contract and loading curve (LC) contract. A multi-period linear probabilistic programming model is adopted for the contract selection and optimization. Hence, by using the probabilistic programming, a solution procedure is proposed that allow users to determine the best electricity contract according to their desired confident level of the uncertainties. In addition, due to the fact that the demand of product is uncertain, if one considers the overage and shortage of the products in the market as well, an interesting result can be obtained. The methodology is explained in the paper. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.