Noncooperative dynamics in election interference

作     者：David Rushing Dewhurst Christopher M. Danforth Peter Sheridan Dodds 

作者机构：MassMutual Center of Excellence in Complex Systems and Data Science Computational Story Lab Vermont Complex Systems Center and Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of Vermont Burlington Vermont 05405 USA 

出 版 物：《Physical Review E》 (物理学评论E辑：统计、非线性和软体物理学)

年 卷 期：2020年第101卷第2期

页      面：022307-022307页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070203[理学-原子与分子物理] 0702[理学-物理学] 

基　　金：Amerisure Mutual Insurance Company 

主　　题：Econophysics Brownian dynamics Data analysis Fokker–Planck equation Monte Carlo methods 

摘      要：Foreign power interference in domestic elections is an existential threat to societies. Manifested through myriad methods from war to words, such interference is a timely example of strategic interaction between economic and political agents. We model this interaction between rational game players as a continuous-time differential game, constructing an analytical model of this competition with a variety of payoff structures. All-or-nothing attitudes by only one player regarding the outcome of the game lead to an arms race in which both countries spend increasing amounts on interference and counterinterference operations. We then confront our model with data pertaining to the Russian interference in the 2016 United States presidential election contest. We introduce and estimate a Bayesian structural time-series model of election polls and social media posts by Russian Twitter troll accounts. Our analytical model, while purposefully abstract and simple, adequately captures many temporal characteristics of the election and social media activity. We close with a discussion of our model s shortcomings and suggestions for future research.