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The impacts of simultaneous disease intervention decisions on epidemic outcomes

JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY 2016年 395卷 1-10页

作者： Andrews, Michael A. Bauch, Chris T. Univ Guelph 50 Stone Rd E Guelph ON N1G 2W1 Canada Univ Waterloo 200 Univ Ave W Waterloo ON N2L 3G1 Canada

mathematical models of the interplay between disease dynamics and human behavioural dynamics can improve our understanding of how diseases spread when individuals adapt their behaviour in response to an epidemic. Accounting for behavioural mechanisms that determine uptake of infectious disease interventions such as vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can significantly alter predicted health outcomes in a population. However, most previous approaches that model interactions between human behaviour and disease dynamics have modelled behaviour of these two interventions separately. Here, we develop and analyze an agent based network model to gain insights into how behaviour toward both interventions interact adaptively with disease dynamics (and therefore, indirectly, with one another) during the course of a single epidemic where an SIRV infection spreads through a contact network. In the model, individuals decide to become vaccinated and/or practice NPIs based on perceived infection prevalence (locally or globally) and on what other individuals in the network are doing. We find that introducing adaptive NPI behaviour lowers vaccine uptake on account of behavioural feedbacks, and also decreases epidemic final size. When transmission rates are low, NPIs alone are as effective in reducing epidemic final size as NPIs and vaccination combined. Also, NPIs can compensate for delays in vaccine availability by hindering early disease spread, decreasing epidemic size significantly compared to the case where NPI behaviour does not adapt to mitigate early surges in infection prevalence. We also find that including adaptive NPI behaviour strongly mitigates the vaccine behavioural feedbacks that would otherwise result in higher vaccine uptake at lower vaccine efficacy as predicted by most previous models, and the same feedbacks cause epidemic final size to remain approximately constant across a broad range of values for vaccine efficacy. Finally, when individual

关键词： Epidemic modelling Vaccinating behaviour Nonpharmaceutical interventions Adaptive networks Econophysics

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Rock burst mechanics as a time dependent event

Rock burst mechanics as a time dependent event

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1st International conference on Underground Spaces - Design, engineering and Environmental Aspects

作者： Vacek, J. Hrachova-Sedlackova, S. Czech Tech Univ CR-16635 Prague Czech Republic

ISBN: (纸本)9781845641252

This paper deals with the behaviour of open rock that occurs, for example, during long wall mining in coal mines, in deep tunnel, or shaft excavation. Long wall instability leads to extrusion of rock mass into an open space. This effect is mostly referred to as a bump, or a rock burst. For bumps to occur, the rock has to possess certain particular rock burst properties leading to accumulation of energy and the potential to release this energy. Such materials may be brittle, or the bumps may arise at the interfacial zones of two parts of the rock, which have principally different material properties. The solution is based on experimental and mathematical modelling. These two methods have to allow the problem to be studied on the basis of three presumptions: the solution must be time dependent the solution must allow the creation of crack in the rock mass the solution must allow an extrusion of rock into an open space (bump effect) A part of the presentation will be bump video from mathematical and experimental tests.

关键词： rock burst bump mining rock mechanics mathematical and physical modelling

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Therapy strategy in tumour cells and immune system interaction mathematical model

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APPLICABLE ANALYSIS 2016年第7期95卷 1548-1559页

作者： Rozova, V. S. Bratus, A. S. Lobachevsky State Univ Nizhni Novgorod Inst Biol & Biomed Nizhnii Novgorod Russia Moscow MV Lomonosov State Univ Fac Computat Math & Cybernet Moscow Russia

In this paper, we propose a method to optimise a theoretical control on a mathematical model of interactions between cancer cells and the immune system. The model consists of five ordinary differential equations describing the behaviour of a tumour cell population interacting with populations of immune cells, all cells being submitted to the effects of chemotherapy. Two constraints were added to reflect the biological specificity of the problem. The first one asserts that the number of cytotoxic T lymphocytes must remain above a given threshold at the terminal point in time. The second one keeps the drug concentration in the bloodstream below a threshold to reduce toxic side effects resulting from the damages of chemotherapy to healthy cells. Using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle and approximation methods for optimal control, we obtain bang-bang solutions for different scenarios.

关键词： mathematical modelling tumour immune system chemotherapy optimal control

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mathematical modelling in Matlab of the experimental results shows the electrochemical potential difference - temperature of the WC coatings immersed in a NaCl solution

Mathematical modelling in Matlab of the experimental results...

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International conference on Applied Sciences (ICAS)

作者： Benea, M. L. Benea, O. D. Politehn Univ Timisoara Dept Engn & Management Hunedoara Romania Inst Natl Sci Appl Dept Informat Lyon France

The method used for purchasing the corrosion behaviour the WC coatings deposited by plasma spraying, on a martensitic stainless steel substrate consists in measuring the electrochemical potential of the coating, respectively that of the substrate, immersed in a NaCl solution as corrosive agent. The mathematical processing of the obtained experimental results in Matlab allowed us to make some correlations between the electrochemical potential of the coating and the solution temperature is very well described by some curves having equations obtained by interpolation order 4.

关键词： Sodium chloride

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Process data visualisation with biplots

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MINERALS engineering 2005年第9期18卷 955-968页

作者： Gardner, S Le Roux, NJ Aldrich, C Univ Stellenbosch Dept Proc Engn ZA-7602 Stellenbosch South Africa Univ Stellenbosch Dept Stat & Actuarial Sci ZA-7602 Stellenbosch South Africa

In this paper a modem methodology of biplots is introduced as a means for monitoring the behaviour of process systems. This sophisticated methodology allows for the projection of high-dimensional data to a low-dimensional subspace that can be visualised by a human operator. The projections are highly graphical in nature, and rich in information regarding variation in process variables, correlations among these variables, as well as class separation, taking into account the multivariate character of the data. Moreover, as is shown by way of two case studies, process disturbances can be visualised and explored quantitatively by superimposing alpha-bags on biplots. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： process control modelling hydrometallurgy froth flotation

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Supporting conceptual product design by hybrid simulation of use processes with scenario structures

Supporting conceptual product design by hybrid simulation of...

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16th International conference on engineering Design, ICED 2007

作者： Van Der Vegte, Wilhelm F. Horváth, Imre Delft University of Technology Faculty of Industrial Design Engineering Landbergstraat 15 2628 CE Delft Netherlands

ISBN: (纸本)1904670024

The approach described in this paper aims to offer designers a new way to investigate use processes of products by integrating scenarios of expected user behaviour with simulations of physical artefact behaviour. Use is considered a key process in the life cycle of a product, being the phase in which an instance of a product is put into service or applied for its purpose. Our approach aims at resolving three issues: (i) dealing with the diversity of use processes in behavioural simulations, (ii) the integration of simulation and modelling approaches and (iii) extending the deployability of behavioural simulations towards conceptual design. Currently, options for behavioural simulation of the use process of a product are limited. Performing complete-picture behavioural simulation in which the product and the human user react on each other's behaviours is not practicable. To make this possible, a hybrid approach is proposed. behaviour that is commonly modelled based on the laws of physics is simulated as continuous behaviour, while information-processing behaviour is simulated as discrete behaviour. This paper elaborates on modelling and simulation of discrete behaviour and linking it to continuous-behaviour simulation. Scenario structures are introduced to represent knowledge about different human decision-making patterns that influence the courses of a use process. Depending on what is available to the designer, these can be based on observations from real users or on conjecture. The objective is to make what-if studies possible to compare different scenarios of product use. This is demonstrated with a pilot study of a basic use process.

关键词： Conceptual design

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Three-dimensional modelling of steel/concrete composite connection behaviour in fire

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Journal of Constructional Steel Research 1998年第1-3期46卷 319-320页

作者： Liu, T.C.H. Manchester School of Engineering University of Manchester Oxford Road Manchester M13 9PL UK

A three-dimensional mathematical model `FEAST' was developed to simulate the response of steel structures in the event of a fire. It has been further developed to model the behaviour of steel/concrete composite connection at elevated temperatures. This paper summarizes the proposed theoretical background of the model which was dedicated for the analysis of the semi-rigid composite connection. The composite connection comprises not only the main beam and the column, but also a reinforced concrete slab supported by cold-formed profiled steel sheeting which in turn is connected to the top flange of the main beam by shear studs. The analytical methods is based on a finite element procedure with special consideration of bolts, shear studs and concrete behaviour. The advantage of using `FEAST' described here is that, by taking into account a realistic non-linear differential temperature profile, it allows automatic interaction between the bolts, shear studs and the reinforcement which are the main components contributed to the moment capacity of the composite connection. The temperature-rotation characteristic of the connections is produced at various applied bending moments. The mathematical model was compared with a series of fire tests carried out recently at the Building Research Establishment, UK. The comparison was found encouraging. Further comparison between the behaviour of composite and non-composite connections is also presented in this paper. As expected, there has been substantial enhancement in the limiting temperature by the composite connection. The tool developed here would therefore be very useful for further study of the behaviour of steel frame with composite action in the course of a fire.

关键词： Steel structures

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Diagrammatic Models in the engineering Sciences

Diagrammatic Models in the Engineering Sciences

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International conference Model-Based Reasoning in Science and engineering - Abduction, Visualization, Simulation (MBR04)

作者： Boon, Mieke Univ Twente Dept Philosophy NL-7500 AE Enschede Netherlands

This paper is concerned with scientific reasoning in the engineering sciences. engineering sciences aim at explaining, predicting and describing physical phenomena occurring in technological devices. The focus of this paper is on mathematical description. These mathematical descriptions are important to computer-aided engineering or design programs (CAE and CAD). The first part of this paper explains why a traditional view, according to which scientific laws explain and predict phenomena and processes, is problematic. In the second part, the reasons of these methodological difficulties are analyzed. Ludwig Prandtl's method of integrating a theoretical and empirical approach is used as an example of good scientific practice. Based on this analysis, a distinction is made between different types of laws that play a role in constructing mathematical descriptions of phenomena. A central assumption in understanding research methodology is that, instead of scientific laws, knowledge of capacities and mechanisms are primary in the engineering sciences. Another important aspect in methodology of the engineering sciences is that in explaining a phenomenon or process spatial regions are distinguished in which distinct physical behaviour occur. The mechanisms in distinct spatial regions are represented in a so-called diagrammatic model. The construction of a mathematical description of the phenomenon or process is based on this diagrammatic model.

关键词： engineering science Diagrammatic models Methodology Prandtl mathematical modelling Scientific practice Experiments

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modelling of Nonlinear Creep and Recovery behaviour of Cortical Bone

Modelling of Nonlinear Creep and Recovery Behaviour of Corti...

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10th International conference on Fracture and Damage Mechanics (FDM 2011)

作者： Lovrenio-Jugovic, Martina Tonkovic, Zdenko Skozrit, Ivica Univ Zagreb Fac Mech Engn & Naval Architecture Zagreb 10000 Croatia

ISBN: (纸本)9783037852187

A new one-dimensional constitutive model for human cortical bone is proposed to simulate the viscoelastic-viscoplastic behaviour occurring during creep-recovery tests. The material parameters are determined by fitting experimental results of creep-recovery tests reported in the published literature. An efficient computational algorithm for the integration of the proposed constitutive model at the material point level is derived. The derived algorithm in conjunction with the Jacobian matrix is implemented in the finite element code ABAQUS. The model predictions are found to be in good agreement with the experimental data presented in literature.

关键词： cortical bone viscoelasticity viscoplastcity creep recovery finite element modelling

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Bicycle Rider Control modelling for Path Tracking 8

Bicycle Rider Control Modelling for Path Tracking

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8th Vienna International conference on mathematical modelling

作者： Edelmann, Johannes Haudinn, Martin Plochl, Manfred Vienna Univ Technol Inst Mech & Mechatron A-1040 Vienna Austria

Rider models are employed to gain insight into bicycle rider steering behaviour and to improve characteristic properties of bicycles. In this paper, stability properties as well as basic dynamic characteristics of the passive (uncontrolled) bicycle rider system and consequences on the rider control modelling are addressed. In particular, the unstable motion of the system at low velocities and bandwidth limitations caused by non-minimum phase dynamics are emphasized. To analyse the effectiveness of the steering torque and the lean torque as possible rider's inputs to control the dynamics of the bicycle, a controllability analysis of the bicycle rider system has been performed. It turns out that lean torque input, in contrast to steering torque input, has marginal impact on the dynamics of the system Finally, a bicycle rider control model considering human rider properties is presented, and its capabilities are demonstrated by performing a curve entering manoeuvre. (C) 2015, IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Hosing by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Bicycle Bicycle stability Bicycle rider Steering control Controllability Non-minimum phase systems

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