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检索条件"任意字段=Winter Simulation Conference on Simulation - Making Decisions in a Complex World"

共 418 条记录，以下是101-110 订阅

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Towards a simulation and visualization portal to support multi-actor decision making in mainports

Towards a simulation and visualization portal to support mul...

引用

2005 winter simulation conference (WSC 05)

作者： Chin, RTH van Houten, SPA Verbraeck, A Delft Univ Technol Fac Technol Policy & Management NL-2628 BX Delft Netherlands

ISBN: (纸本)0780395190

Decision makers in ports and airports are working in an extremely complex environment. decisions involve multiple actors, who all have a different view on the system under investigation, and on the effectiveness and desirability of possible outcomes of the decision making process. simulation and visualization are two core technologies to support these complex decision making processes. One of the major challenges is to provide the variety of involved actors with visualizations that fit their view on the system. Two case studies show that the visualizations should be able to provide two views on decision making: a view on the system under investigation and a view on the multi-actor decision making process itself. This paper presents the requirements for a service-oriented and web-based simulation and visualization portal, which integrates both views. In cooperation with the Port of Rotterdam we are currently developing and testing a prototype implementation of the portal.

关键词： Ports and harbors

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AN EMPIRICALLY-GROUNDED simulation OF BANK DEPOSITORS

AN EMPIRICALLY-GROUNDED SIMULATION OF BANK DEPOSITORS

引用

winter simulation conference on simulation - making decisions in a complex world

作者： Zandbergen, Wayne George Mason Univ Fairfax VA 22030 USA

ISBN: (纸本)9781479939503;9781479920778

There is a wide range of opinion regarding historical and theoretical causes of bank panics and financial crises. Current theory, and theory-based models, find little support in the historical record. This paper examines previous empirical findings based in detailed banking records and offers several new results based on detailed bank data from 1893 Helena, Montana. These findings suggest modeling bank panics as psycho-social events. The Bank Depositor Model (BDM) builds upon a model previously designed to examine emotions within a group (Bosse et al., 2009). BDM represents bank depositor behavior as resulting from a combination of heterogeneous agent (depositor) attributes, views expressed by those in an agents social network and exogenous events that may alter an agents receptiveness to positive or negative views. Initial results conform with the described empirical facts.

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MULTIPLE worldS IN simulation GAMES FOR SPATIAL DECISION making: CONCEPT AND ARCHITECTURE

MULTIPLE WORLDS IN SIMULATION GAMES FOR SPATIAL DECISION MAK...

引用

2008 winter simulation conference

作者： Fumarola, Michele Verbraeck, Alexander Delft Univ Technol Syst Engn Grp Fac Technol Policy & Management NL-2628 BX Delft Netherlands

ISBN: (纸本)9781424427079

In this paper we present the use of "what-if"-analysis in simulation games for spatial decision making by introducing the concept of multiple worlds. We expect that "what-if"-analysis in games enables the trainees to achieve more robust results, which is defined as the ability to achieve the required goals given different scenarios. Scenarios are defined as exogenous variables on the multiple worlds. Viable decisions for a particular world are assessed by splitting the given world into multiple ones and running simulations for these new worlds. This assessment is performed by a) comparing the alternatives re resented by each world and b) exploring the timeline of each world by selecting specific time instants. The navigation both through multiple worlds and through time should provide the users the possibility to formulate a robust answer for the specified problem. We will present a viable architecture and 4 distinct modes of game-play for the simulation game.

关键词： Decision making

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A HYBRID simulation MODEL FOR LARGE-SCALED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SYSTEMS

A HYBRID SIMULATION MODEL FOR LARGE-SCALED ELECTRICITY GENER...

引用

winter simulation conference on simulation - making decisions in a complex world

作者： Pruckner, Marco German, Reinhard Univ Erlangen Nurnberg D-91058 Erlangen Germany

ISBN: (纸本)9781479939503;9781479920778

Due to the transition towards a sustainable energy supply, many electricity generation systems are faced with great challenges worldwide. Highly volatile renewable energy sources play an important role in the future electricity generation mix and should help compensate the phase-out of nuclear power in countries such as Germany. simulation-based energy system analyses can support the conversion into a sustainable future energy system and are intended to find risks and miscalculations. In this paper we present models for the main components of the electricity generation system. We use a hybrid simulation approach with system dynamics and discrete event modules. This modular design allows quick model adoptions for different scenarios. simulation results show the development of the future annual electricity balance, CO2 emission balance, electricty imports and exports, and the wholesale price of electricity.

关键词： Renewable energy resources

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CHARACTERISTICS OF A simulation MODEL OF THE NATIONAL KIDNEY TRANSPLANTATION SYSTEM

CHARACTERISTICS OF A SIMULATION MODEL OF THE NATIONAL KIDNEY...

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winter simulation conference on simulation - making decisions in a complex world

作者： Davis, Ashley Mehrotra, Sanjay Friedewald, John Ladner, Daniela Northwestern Univ Ctr Engn & Hlth Evanston IL 60208 USA Northwestern Univ Transplant Outcomes Res Collaborat Chicago IL 60611 USA

ISBN: (纸本)9781479939503;9781479920778

The United Network for Organ Sharing is planning to resolve the ever-growing geographic disparities in kidney transplantation. Currently available simulation techniques are limited in their ability to analyze the impact of policy changes at the system level. This paper discusses the development of a discrete event simulation of the kidney transplantation system, KSIM. KSIM design is discussed and can easily be adapted to test alternative geographic organ allocation policies. Input analysis employing actual transplantation system data was conducted to best represent patient and organ arrival processes. After discussing our model, we briefly describe how KSIM was verified and validated against twenty years of actual transplantation system information. We also describe the potential usability of KSIM in organ allocation policy development.

关键词： Discrete event simulation

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RELATIVE VALUE ITERATION FOR AVERAGE REWARD SEMI-MARKOV CONTROL VIA simulation

RELATIVE VALUE ITERATION FOR AVERAGE REWARD SEMI-MARKOV CONT...

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winter simulation conference on simulation - making decisions in a complex world

作者： Gosavi, Abhijit Missouri Univ Sci & Technol Dept Engn Management & Syst Engn Rolla MO 65409 USA

ISBN: (纸本)9781479939503;9781479920778

This paper studies the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) under the long-run average reward criterion in the simulation-based context. Using dynamic programming, a straightforward approach for solving this problem involves policy iteration;a value iteration approach for this problem involves a transformation that induces an additional computational burden. In the simulation-based context, however, where one seeks to avoid the transition probabilities needed in dynamic programming, value iteration forms a more convenient route for solution purposes. In this paper, hence, we present (to the best of knowledge for the first time) a relative value iteration algorithm for solving average reward SMDPs via simulation. The algorithm is a semi-Markov extension of an algorithm in the literature for the Markov decision process. Our numerical results with the new algorithm are very encouraging.

关键词： Algorithm design and analysis Context Dynamic programming Equations Markov processes Mathematical model Modeling

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AN AGENT-BASED simulation APPROACH TO EXPERIENCE MANAGEMENT IN THEME PARKS

AN AGENT-BASED SIMULATION APPROACH TO EXPERIENCE MANAGEMENT ...

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winter simulation conference on simulation - making decisions in a complex world

作者： Cheng, Shih-Fen Lin, Larry Du, Jiali Lau, Hoong Chuin Varakantham, Pradeep Singapore Management Univ Sch Informat Syst Singapore 178902 Singapore

ISBN: (纸本)9781479939503;9781479920778

In this paper, we illustrate how massive agent-based simulation can be used to investigate an exciting new application domain of experience management in theme parks, which covers topics like congestion control, incentive design, and revenue management. Since all visitors are heterogeneous and self-interested, we argue that a high-quality agent-based simulation is necessary for studying various problems related to experience management. As in most agent-base simulations, a sound understanding of micro-level behaviors is essential to construct high-quality models. To achieve this, we designed and conducted a first-of-its-kind real-world experiment that helps us understand how typical visitors behave in a theme-park environment. From the data collected, visitor behaviors are quantified, modeled, and eventually incorporated into a massive agent-based simulation where up to 15,000 visitor agents are modeled. Finally, we demonstrate how our agent-based simulator can be used to understand the crowd build-up and the impacts of various control policies on visitor experience.

关键词： Circuit simulation

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simulation AND OPTIMIZATION FOR AN EXPERIMENTAL ENVIRONMENT TO WILDFIRE RESOURCE MANAGEMENT AND PLANNING: FIREFIGHT PROJECT MODELLING AND ARCHITECTURE

SIMULATION AND OPTIMIZATION FOR AN EXPERIMENTAL ENVIRONMENT ...

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winter simulation conference on simulation - making decisions in a complex world

作者： Figueras i Jove, Jaume Guasch i Petit, Antoni Fonseca i Casas, Pau Casanovas i Garcia, Josep Univ Politecn Cataluna Terrassa 08222 Spain Univ Politecn Cataluna Barcelona 08025 Spain

ISBN: (纸本)9781479939503;9781479920778

Firefighting resource management is crucial to contain and extinguish wildfires. Resource optimization in wildfire containment can help to reduce the dangers and risks to both human (firemen and area inhabitants) and natural environment. The use of simulation to predict wildfire evolution combined with optimization techniques can lead to an optimal resource deployment and management to minimize natural and human risks. This article proposes a simulation and optimization architecture;a well-defined data format to represent firefighting resources and an experimental platform to simulate wildfire spread, wildfire containment, resource dispatching and management and resource optimization. The simulation and optimization environment will be tested in the Catalonia region (Spain) in collaboration with Catalan Firefight Department.

关键词： Resource allocation

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Upsizing manufacturing line in Vietnamese industrial plants: A simulation approach

Upsizing manufacturing line in Vietnamese industrial plants:...

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2013 43rd winter simulation conference - simulation: making decisions in a complex world, WSC 2013

作者： Dang Minh, Nguyen Dang Toan, Nguyen University of Economics and Business Vietnam National University Hanoi Xuan Thuy Road Cau Giay Dist Hanoi Viet Nam Media Tenor International Hanoi Trung Tien Street Dong Da District Hanoi Viet Nam

ISBN: (纸本)9781479939503

Vietnamese industrialists have understood that simulation studies can help to form a more reliable manufacturing line than conventional methods that for the most based upon engineering experiences. However, the use of simulation has not been applied in designing the manufacturing line, and a confident method of designing a new manufacturing line or modifying the capacity of a current manufacturing line (CML) has remained a task in Vietnamese industrial plants. The main purpose of this research is to propose a new perspective of a simulation study in Vietnamese industry from an empirical point of view to implement the framework for designing a manufacturing line. The second purpose is to introduce the method and analytical procedures of modifying a CML utilized by a linear programming (LP) model for selecting. The proposed method was applied in an actual design project to confirm the feasibility of the framework. © 2013 IEEE.

关键词： Industrial plants

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AGILE LOGISTICS simulation AND OPTIMIZATION FOR MANAGING DISASTER RESPONSES

AGILE LOGISTICS SIMULATION AND OPTIMIZATION FOR MANAGING DIS...

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winter simulation conference on simulation - making decisions in a complex world

作者： Barahona, Francisco Ettl, Markus Petrik, Marek Rimshnick, Peter M. IBM Corp TJ Watson Res Ctr Yorktown Hts NY 10520 USA

ISBN: (纸本)9781479939503;9781479920778

Catastrophic events such as hurricanes, earthquakes or floods require emergency responders to rapidly distribute emergency relief supplies to protect the health and lives of victims. In this paper we develop a simulation and optimization framework for managing the logistics of distributing relief supplies in a multi-tier supply network. The simulation model captures optimized stocking of relief supplies, distribution operations at federal or state-operated staging facilities, demand uncertainty, and the dynamic progression of disaster response operations. We apply robust optimization techniques to develop optimized stocking policies and dispatch of relief supplies between staging facilities and points of distribution. The simulation framework accommodates a wide range of disaster scenarios and stressors, and helps assess the efficacy of response plans and policies for better disaster response.

关键词： Emergency services

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