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Analysis of environmental and economic efficiency using a farm population micro-simulation model

Analysis of environmental and economic efficiency using a fa...

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IMACS world Congress/Modelling and simulation Society-of-Australia-and-New-Zealand (MSSANZ)/18th MODSIM09 Biennial conference on Modelling and simulation

作者： Ramilan, Thiagarajah Scrimgeour, Frank Marsh, Dan Univ Waikato Dept Econ Hamilton New Zealand Univ Melbourne Melbourne Sch Land & Environm Melbourne Vic 3010 Australia

New Zealand's success in raising agricultural productivity has been accompanied by higher input use, leading to adverse effects on the environment. Until recently, analysis of farm performance has tended to ignore such negative externalities. The current emphasis on environmental issues has led dairy farmers to target improvements in both environmental performance and productivity. Therefore, measuring the environmental performance of farms and integrating this information into farm productivity calculations should assist in making informed policy decisions which promote sustainable development. However, this is a challenging process since conventional environmental efficiency measures are usually based on simple input and output flows but nitrogen discharge is a complex process affected by climate, pasture composition, cow physiology and geophysical variability. Furthermore, the outdoor pastoral nature of New Zealand farming means that it is difficult to control input and output flows, particularly of nitrogen. We present a novel approach to measure the environmental and economic efficiency of farms, using the Overseer nutrient budget model and spatially micro-simulated virtual population data. The empirical analysis is based on dairy farms in the Karapiro catchment, where nitrogen discharge from dairy farming is a major source of nonpoint pollution. (c) 2010 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Data Envelopment Analysis Economic efficiency Environmental efficiency Dairy farming Micro-simulation

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Limitations In The Use Of Mathematical Models To Support Investment decisions 07

Limitations In The Use Of Mathematical Models To Support Inv...

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simulation winter conference

作者： Mario Jorge Lima Guilherme de Aquino Barbosa Rio de Janeiro RJ Petrόleo Brasileiro S.A. Rio de Janeiro Brazil

ISBN: (纸本)9781424413065

Summary form only given. Decision making is a complex job, especially when it involves millions of dollars. Experience, intuition and other personal features are essential, but the support of a mathematical tool can help avoiding errors. This paper presents a summary of the experience acquired by the Petrobras refinery simulation team in using mathematical models to support investment decisions in tank farm problems. Real situations will be presented where limitations and risks came up along with recommendations to avoid similar problems in the future.

关键词： Mathematical model Investments Decision making

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Introduction to SAS simulation studio 13

Introduction to SAS simulation studio

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Proceedings of the 2013 winter simulation conference: simulation: making decisions in a complex world

作者： Ed Hughes Emily Lada Phillip Meanor Hong Chen SAS Institute Inc. Cary NC

ISBN: (纸本)9781479920778

An overview is presented of SAS simulation Studio, an object-oriented, Java-based application for building and analyzing discrete-event simulation models. Emphasis is given to simulation Studio's hierarchical, entity-based approach to resource modeling, which facilitates the creation of realistic simulation models for systems with complicated resource requirements, such as preemption. Also discussed are the various ways that simulation Studio integrates with SAS and JMP for data management, distribution fitting, and experimental design.

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Modeling of complex decision making using forward simulation 16

Modeling of complex decision making using forward simulation

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simulation winter conference

作者： Thomas Winkler Paul Barthel Ralf Sprenger GLOBALFOUNDRIES Dresden Module One LLC & Co. KG Dresden GERMANY

ISBN: (纸本)9781509044849

The complexity of simulation models has increased during the last years in semiconductor foundries. Manual and automated decisions have to be modeled in detail to make the right conclusions from them. We describe an approach that uses forward simulation to minimize modeling effort and mimics fab behavior to a high degree. The approach is applied to the problem of controlling time link chains. Results are presented and other applications are discussed.

关键词： Data models Predictive models Decision making complexity theory Computational modeling Foundries

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simulation based optimization for supply chain configuration design

Simulation based optimization for supply chain configuration...

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simulation winter conference

作者： Truong Azadivar School for Marine Science and Technology University of Massachusetts Dartmouth New Bedford MA USA College of Engineering University of Massachusetts Dartmouth North Dartmouth MA USA

The design of a supply chain network as an integrated system with several tiers of suppliers is a difficult task. It consists of making strategic decisions on the facility location, stocking location, production policy, production capacity, distribution and transportation modes. This research develops a hybrid optimization approach to address the supply chain configuration design problem. The new approach combines simulation, mixed integer programming and genetic algorithm. The genetic algorithm provides a mechanism to optimize qualitative and policy variables. The mixed integer programming model reduces computing efforts by manipulating quantitative variables. Finally simulation is used to evaluate performance of each supply chain configuration with nonlinear, complex relationships and under more realistic assumptions. The approach is designed to be robust and could handle the large scale of the real world problems.

关键词： Supply chains Design optimization Analytical models Manufacturing Transportation Production Computer languages Graphical user interfaces Databases Libraries

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MULTIPLE worldS IN simulation GAMES FOR SPATIAL DECISION making: CONCEPT AND ARCHITECTURE 08

MULTIPLE WORLDS IN SIMULATION GAMES FOR SPATIAL DECISION MAK...

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winter simulation conference (WSC 2008)

作者： Michele Fumarola Alexander Verbraeck Delft University of Technology Delft The Netherlands

ISBN: (纸本)9781424427086

In this paper we present the use of "what-if"-analysis in simulation games for spatial decision making by introducing the concept of multiple worlds. We expect that "what-if"-analysis in games enables the trainees to achieve more robust results, which is defined as the ability to achieve the required goals given different scenarios. Scenarios are defined as exogenous variables on the multiple-worlds. Viable decisions for a particular world are assessed by splitting the given world into multiple ones and running simulations for these new worlds. This assessment is performed by a) comparing the alternatives represented by each world and b) exploring the timeline of each world by selecting specific time instants. The navigation both through multiple worlds and through time should provide the users the possibility to formulate a robust answer for the specified problem. We will present a viable architecture and 4 distinct modes of game-play for the simulation game.

关键词： simulation game ARCHITECTURE Building construction decision making simulating navigation Trainees Game theory

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Advances in Cross-Cultural Decision making 1

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丛书名： Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing

1000年

作者： Mark Hoffman

ISBN: (数字)9783319607474

ISBN: (纸本)9783319607467

This book reports on the latest advances in understanding cross-cultural decision and human cognition with respect to various cultural constructs, such as geographical, historical, sociological, and organizational cultures. It addresses researchers, scholars, and industry practitioners from diverse fields, including sociology, linguistics, business, military science, psychology, human factors research, neuroscience, and education. The book covers a wealth of topics, including: analyses of historical events and intercultural competence; commercial applications of social-cultural science; the study of decision-making similarities (and differences) across cultures; cultural behavioral modeling and simulation technology; and social networks and studies on group communication alike. It also reports on real-world case studies relevant to cross-cultural decision-making. The book’s main goal is to combine studies from other relevant disciplines such as causal analysis in complex environments, team decision making and social changes to develop a more holistic understanding of the decisions that people, groups, and societies make, so as to improve our ability to forecast and plan for the future. Based on the AHFE 2017 International conference on Cross-Cultural Decision making (CCDM), held on July 17–21, 2017, in Los Angeles, California, USA, this book offers a multidisciplinary view on the impact of culture on people’s cognition and behavior, and a timely reference guide to new applications and future challenges.

关键词： Computational Intelligence Cross-Cultural Management Global/International Culture simulation and Modeling

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simulation versus constraint-based graphical modeling of construction processes 13

Simulation versus constraint-based graphical modeling of con...

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Proceedings of the 2013 winter simulation conference: simulation: making decisions in a complex world

作者： Ian Flood Valeh Nowrouzian University of Florida Gainesville FL

ISBN: (纸本)9781479920778

The paper introduces a new constraint-based graphical approach to modeling construction processes, Foresight, designed to combine the versatility of discrete-event simulation, the ease-of-use of the Critical Path Method, and the visual insight of linear scheduling. The usability of Foresight is compared with Stroboscope (a construction-specific simulation system) in a case study of the classic earthmoving problem. The Foresight model is shown, first, to be visually more insightful than its Stroboscope equivalent, and second, to require a fraction of the number of modeling terms and modeling concepts in its definition.

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AutoMod®: modeling complex manufacturing, distribution, and logisitics systems for over 30 years 13

AutoMod®: modeling complex manufacturing, distribution, and...

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Proceedings of the 2013 winter simulation conference: simulation: making decisions in a complex world

作者： Dan Muller Applied Materials Salt Lake City UT

ISBN: (纸本)9781479920778

Decision making in industry continues to become more complicated. Customers are more demanding, competition is more fierce, and costs for labor and raw materials continue to rise. Managers need state-of-the-art tools to help in planning, design, and operations of their facilities. simulation provides a virtual factory where ideas can be tested and performance improved. The AutoMod product suite from Applied Materials has been used on thousands of projects to help engineers and managers make the best decisions possible. AutoMod supports hierarchical model construction. This architecture allows users to reuse model components in other models, decreasing the time required to build a model. In addition, recent enhancements to AutoMod's material handling template systems have in-creased modeling accuracy and ease-of-use. These latest advances have helped make AutoMod one of the most widely used simulation software packages.

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Bootstrapping and conditional simulation in kriging: better confidence interval and optimization? 13

Bootstrapping and conditional simulation in kriging: better ...

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Proceedings of the 2013 winter simulation conference: simulation: making decisions in a complex world

作者： Ehsan Mehdad Tilburg University AB Tilburg Netherlands

ISBN: (纸本)9781479920778

This paper investigates two related questions: (1) How to derive a confidence interval for the output of a combination of simulation inputs not yet simulated? (2) How to select the next combination to be simulated when searching for the optimal combination? To answer these questions, the paper uses parametric bootstrapped Kriging and "conditional simulation", whereas classic Kriging estimates the variance of its predictor by plugging-in the estimated GP parameters so this variance is biased. The main conclusion is that classic Kriging seems quite robust; i.e., classic Kriging gives acceptable confidence intervals and estimates of the optimal solution.

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