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Analysis of environmental and economic efficiency using a farm population micro-simulation model

Analysis of environmental and economic efficiency using a fa...

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IMACS world Congress/Modelling and simulation Society-of-Australia-and-New-Zealand (MSSANZ)/18th MODSIM09 Biennial conference on Modelling and simulation

作者： Ramilan, Thiagarajah Scrimgeour, Frank Marsh, Dan Univ Waikato Dept Econ Hamilton New Zealand Univ Melbourne Melbourne Sch Land & Environm Melbourne Vic 3010 Australia

New Zealand's success in raising agricultural productivity has been accompanied by higher input use, leading to adverse effects on the environment. Until recently, analysis of farm performance has tended to ignore such negative externalities. The current emphasis on environmental issues has led dairy farmers to target improvements in both environmental performance and productivity. Therefore, measuring the environmental performance of farms and integrating this information into farm productivity calculations should assist in making informed policy decisions which promote sustainable development. However, this is a challenging process since conventional environmental efficiency measures are usually based on simple input and output flows but nitrogen discharge is a complex process affected by climate, pasture composition, cow physiology and geophysical variability. Furthermore, the outdoor pastoral nature of New Zealand farming means that it is difficult to control input and output flows, particularly of nitrogen. We present a novel approach to measure the environmental and economic efficiency of farms, using the Overseer nutrient budget model and spatially micro-simulated virtual population data. The empirical analysis is based on dairy farms in the Karapiro catchment, where nitrogen discharge from dairy farming is a major source of nonpoint pollution. (c) 2010 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Data Envelopment Analysis Economic efficiency Environmental efficiency Dairy farming Micro-simulation

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Factory flow design and analysis using internet-enabled simulation-based optimization and automatic model generation 11

Factory flow design and analysis using internet-enabled simu...

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simulation winter conference

作者： Amos H.C. Ng Jacob Bernedixen Matias Urenda Moris Mats Jägstam Virtual Systems Research Centre University of Skövde Skovde Sweden

Despite simulation offers tremendous promise for designing and analyzing complex production systems, manufacturing industry has been less successful in using it as a decision support tool, especially in the early conceptual phase of factory flow design. If simulation is used today for system design, it is more of-ten used in later phases when important design decisions have already been made and costs are locked. With an aim to advocate the use of simulation in early phases of factory design and analysis, this paper introduces FACTS Analyzer, a toolset developed based on the concept of integrating model abstraction, automatic model generation and simulation-based optimization under an innovative Internet-based plat-form. Specifically, it addresses a novel model aggregation and generation method, which when combined together with other system components, like optimization engines, can synthetically enable simulation to become much easier to use and speed up the time-consuming model building, experimentation and optimization processes, in order to support optimal decision making.

关键词： Optimization Analytical models Computational modeling Servers Object oriented modeling Data models Internet

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MDSS - Management Decision Simulating System - for Solving Conflicted Situations

MDSS - Management Decision Simulating System - for Solving C...

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14th world Multi-conference on Systemics, Cybernetics and Informatics

作者： Ophir, Dan Ariel Univ Ctr Samaria Ariel Israel

ISBN: (纸本)9781936338009

The process of making complex and controversial decisions, for example, dealing with moral or ethical dilemmas, have intrigued people and inspired writers from time immemorial. Dilemmas give both color and depth to characters in good literary works. But beyond literary fiction, dilemmas occupy society in every day issues such as in solving current competition problems either at the corporate or individual level. An example of such a problem is balancing free market approaches, optimal service and government subsidies when legislating public transportation issues. Such an issue arose when a mini-bus company entered the market which was up till then controlled by two bus corporations. The methods for solving such compound problems are known in principle. The AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) [1] is one such method. There are other decomposition approaches, related to and-or trees, for evaluating complex problems [2] and [3], or related to the State-Chart method [4], where the system structure is static and defined a priori in the processing. Our proposed methodology comprises two modes: simulation one and the operating one - changing the graphical development of the problem-solution and its management involving several teams participating in it. If it were possible to assess and quantify each of the alternative solutions for a given problem, the process of decision making would be much easier. If a problem involves only two optional solutions, game theory ([5], [6], [7] and [8]) techniques can be used. However, real life problems are usually multi-unit, multi-optional problems, as in the bus-lines competition problem (Figs. 1(a) and 1(b)).

关键词： Support-Decision tools Game theory Questionnaires analysis simulation

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Simplification: ethical implications for modelling and simulation 18

Simplification: ethical implications for modelling and simul...

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IMACS world Congress/Modelling and simulation Society-of-Australia-and-New-Zealand (MSSANZ)/18th MODSIM09 Biennial conference on Modelling and simulation

作者： Barlow, John Australian Catholic Univ Sydney NSW 2059 Australia

ISBN: (纸本)9780975840078

Put simply a model is a representation of 'something else'. Models may take many forms ranging from scaled models used to represent real world physical objects, such as buildings and new consumer products, to sophisticated computer models used to represent quite complex and often abstract systems, such as financial and investment strategies. However since individuals perceive and interpret situations differently, the same can be said for their perceptions and interpretations of what a model might represent. In the case of a model this could include the model builder, users and even members of the public. Fundamental to the model building process, is the selection and use of various abstraction techniques used by model builders to simplify the 'something else' they are seeking to represent. One of the major issues concerned with simplifying 'something else', be it a relatively simple or complex situation, is determining which factors can be confidently removed from the situation without impacting on the reliability and validity of a model that is subsequently built to emulate or represent it. In essence, once a factor or series of factors are removed from a situation, the situation itself is changed. Further, models are often deliberately built and used specifically to form the basis for analysis and investigation over time using simulation techniques, the results of which are then used to support individual and organisational decision making the consequences of which may even impact on innocent third parties. In this context, this paper will provide a brief examination of the concept of simplification and various approaches to simplification utilised by model builders and simulationists. It will then attempt to provide an ethical analysis of the implications associated with how much and what kind of information should model and simulation builders be reasonably required to disclose to potential users of their products so that any decisions these users make on the ba

关键词： disclosure ethics model simplification simulation

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making results of complex systems-based landscape models more accessible to non-expert users 18

Making results of complex systems-based landscape models mor...

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Combined IMACS world Congress/Modelling and simulation Society-of-Australia-and-New-Zealand (MSSANZ)/18th Biennial conference on Modelling and simulation

作者： Lowell, K. Christy, B. Pelizaro, C. Day, G. Barlow, K. O'Leary, G. Pettit, C. Dept. of Primary Industries VIC Australia Cooperative Research Centre for Spatial Information University of Melbourne Carlton VIC Australia

ISBN: (纸本)9780975840078

Current approaches to landscape management have seen an increasing use of complex models based on an integrated systems approach to describe landscape dynamics. The availability and use of such models provides greater flexibility for informing policy decisions than do single issue approaches. However, model complexity precludes their direct use by all but the most technically savvy. The issue of modellers providing access to results of complex models to non-experts in a flexible way was addressed in this study. The government of Victoria (Australia) needed to be able to assess potential impacts of different land use changes on a variety of factors related to water availability and quality in two priority catchments. The Forest Policy branch of the Department of Primary Industries Victoria (DPI-Vic) who commissioned this work wanted flexibility in the presentation of results of a complex spatial model with particular emphasis on making them intuitive and interactive for end users. To respond to these needs, a GIS-like Spatial Viewer was developed to allow non-experts to query model-based estimates of impacts of land-use change. The land-use changes of interest were the conversion of pasture or cropland to forest and vice versa. The catchment characteristics of interest were recharge, evapotranspiration, total flow to stream, above-ground vegetative carbon, water quality (in-stream nutrients), soil erosion (that also impacts water quality), depth to water table, and in-stream salt. Underlying the Spatial Viewer is a series of spatial layers/outputs from a sophisticated hydrological model CAT (Catchment Analysis Tools)-that describes interacting landscape processes. CAT was calibrated for both areas using long-term climate records, on-ground measurements of surface and sub-surface water, and local expert knowledge of the hydrological system. The raw spatial layers are composed of 1ha cells/pixels that indicate the amount of above-ground vegetative carbon, for example,

关键词： Spatial data land-use conversion hydrological models landscape models decision-making

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MULTIPLE worldS IN simulation GAMES FOR SPATIAL DECISION making: CONCEPT AND ARCHITECTURE

MULTIPLE WORLDS IN SIMULATION GAMES FOR SPATIAL DECISION MAK...

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2008 winter simulation conference

作者： Fumarola, Michele Verbraeck, Alexander Delft Univ Technol Syst Engn Grp Fac Technol Policy & Management NL-2628 BX Delft Netherlands

ISBN: (纸本)9781424427079

In this paper we present the use of "what-if"-analysis in simulation games for spatial decision making by introducing the concept of multiple worlds. We expect that "what-if"-analysis in games enables the trainees to achieve more robust results, which is defined as the ability to achieve the required goals given different scenarios. Scenarios are defined as exogenous variables on the multiple worlds. Viable decisions for a particular world are assessed by splitting the given world into multiple ones and running simulations for these new worlds. This assessment is performed by a) comparing the alternatives re resented by each world and b) exploring the timeline of each world by selecting specific time instants. The navigation both through multiple worlds and through time should provide the users the possibility to formulate a robust answer for the specified problem. We will present a viable architecture and 4 distinct modes of game-play for the simulation game.

关键词： Decision making

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APPLYING A simulation-BASED TOOL TO PRODUCTIVITY MANAGEMENT IN AN AUTOMOTIVE-PARTS INDUSTRY

APPLYING A SIMULATION-BASED TOOL TO PRODUCTIVITY MANAGEMENT ...

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2008 winter simulation conference

作者： Aguirre, Adrian Mueller, Enrique Seffino, Sebastian Mendez, Carlos A. UNL FIQ Dept Ind Engn Santiago Estero 2829 RA-3000 Santa Fe Argentina UNL CONICET INTEC RA-3000 Buenos Aires DF Argentina

ISBN: (纸本)9781424427079

This work presents the development and application of an advanced modeling, simulation and optimization-based framework focused on the production process of a basic element of a internal combustion engine which is supplied by a leading factory in the Latin-American market. Lying on the concepts of the process-interaction approach, the principal components available in the discrete event simulation environment "SIMUL8" were used to achieve the best representation of this complex manufacturing system. Furthermore, advanced SIMUL8's Visual Logic tools were utilized for modeling specific design and operation features arising in the process under study. The developed tool provides a support system for making operative, tactical and strategic decisions, allowing the evaluation of possible scenarios ranging from different operation schemes to potential alternatives of investment. The principal aim of this work is to provide a systematic methodology to improve the productive capacity management, enhancing the process profitability and the degree of customer satisfaction.

关键词： Customer satisfaction

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School leaders' learning of diffusion of innovation through Agent Based Modeling - Coupling modeling and simulation process with learners' interaction with diffusion system

School leaders' learning of diffusion of innovation through ...

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16th International conference on Computers in Education, ICCE 2008

作者： Huang, Jun-Song Chai, Ching Sing Chen, Der-Thanq National Institute of Education Nanyang Technological University Singapore Singapore

ISBN: (纸本)9789868473522

If school diffusion of innovation is viewed as complex adaptive process, how shall we prepare school leaders to be effective diffusion decision makers? Coming from the epistemological belief that knowledge is subjective and embodied, this paper proposes to use Agent Based Modeling (ABM) for learning by focus on learning to "do" diffusion of innovation rather than learning about diffusion of innovation. We therefore recommend to engage school leaders in iterative agent based model development process and to couple it with their interaction in real world diffusion system. With feedback from real world system used for iterative model calibration and validation, the affordances of the agent based model allow school leaders to participate, experience, appropriate, perform and therefore to learn to make effective diffusion decisions in their schools.

关键词： Decision making

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MULTIPLE worldS IN simulation GAMES FOR SPATIAL DECISION making: CONCEPT AND ARCHITECTURE 08

MULTIPLE WORLDS IN SIMULATION GAMES FOR SPATIAL DECISION MAK...

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winter simulation conference (WSC 2008)

作者： Michele Fumarola Alexander Verbraeck Delft University of Technology Delft The Netherlands

ISBN: (纸本)9781424427086

In this paper we present the use of "what-if"-analysis in simulation games for spatial decision making by introducing the concept of multiple worlds. We expect that "what-if"-analysis in games enables the trainees to achieve more robust results, which is defined as the ability to achieve the required goals given different scenarios. Scenarios are defined as exogenous variables on the multiple-worlds. Viable decisions for a particular world are assessed by splitting the given world into multiple ones and running simulations for these new worlds. This assessment is performed by a) comparing the alternatives represented by each world and b) exploring the timeline of each world by selecting specific time instants. The navigation both through multiple worlds and through time should provide the users the possibility to formulate a robust answer for the specified problem. We will present a viable architecture and 4 distinct modes of game-play for the simulation game.

关键词： simulation game ARCHITECTURE Building construction decision making simulating navigation Trainees Game theory

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APPLYING A simulation-BASED TOOL TO PRODUCTIVITY MANAGEMENT IN AN AUTOMOTIVE-PARTS INDUSTRY 08

APPLYING A SIMULATION-BASED TOOL TO PRODUCTIVITY MANAGEMENT ...

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winter simulation conference (WSC 2008)

作者： Adrian Aguirre Enrique Muller Sebastian Seffino Carlos A. Mendez Santiago del Estero Santa Fe Argentina INTEC (UNL -CONICET) Santa Fe Argentina

ISBN: (纸本)9781424427086

关键词： Productivity Internal combustion engines Lead Production facilities Discrete event simulation Manufacturing systems Logic design Investments Profitability Customer satisfaction

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