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Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

LANCET DIABETES & ENDOCRINOLOGY 2022年第3期10卷 177-192页

作者： Cousin, Ewerton Duncan, Bruce B. Stein, Caroline Ong, Kanyin Liane Vos, Theo Abbafati, Cristiana Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen Abdelmasseh, Michael Abdoli, Amir Abd-Rabu, Rami Abolhassani, Hassan Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Afzal, Muhammad Sohail Agarwal, Gina Agrawaal, Krishna K. Agudelo-Botero, Marcela Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmadi, Sepideh Ahmadi, Ali Ahmed, Ali Salih, Yusra Ahmed Akande-Sholabi, Wuraola Akram, Tayyaba Al Hamad, Hanadi Al-Aly, Ziyad Alcalde-Rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alipour, Vahid Aljunid, Syed Mohamed Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Amini, Saeed Ancuceanu, Robert Andrei, Tudorel Andrei, Catalina Liliana Anjana, Ranjit Mohan Ansar, Adnan Antonazzo, Ippazio Cosimo Antony, Benny Anyasodor, Anayochukwu Edward Arabloo, Jalal Arizmendi, Damian Armocida, Benedetta Artamonov, Anton A. Arulappan, Judie Aryan, Zahra Asgari, Samaneh Ashraf, Tahira Astell-Burt, Thomas Atorkey, Prince Atout, Maha Moh'd Wahbi Ayanore, Martin Amogre Badiye, Ashish D. Baig, Atif Amin Bairwa, Mohan Baker, Jennifer L. Baltatu, Ovidiu Constantin Banik, Palash Chandra Barnett, Anthony Barone, Mark Thomaz Ugliara Barone-Adesi, Francesco Barrow, Amadou Bedi, Neeraj Belete, Rebuma Belgaumi, Uzma Iqbal Bell, Arielle Wilder Bennett, Derrick A. Bensenor, Isabela M. Beran, David Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth Bhaskar, Sonu Bhattacharyya, Krittika Bhojaraja, Vijayalakshmi S. Bijani, Ali Bikbov, Boris Birara, Setognal Bodolica, Virginia Bonny, Aime Brenner, Hermann Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich Butt, Zahid A. dos Santos, Florentino Luciano Caetano Camera, Luis Alberto Campos-Nonato, Ismael R. Cao, Yin Cao, Chao Cerin, Ester Chakraborty, Promit Ananyo Chandan, Joht Singh Chattu, Vijay Kumar Chen, Simiao Choi, Jee-Young Jasmine Choudhari, Sonali Gajanan Chowdhury, Enayet Karim Chu, Dinh-Toi Corso, Barbara dadras, omid Dai, Xiaochen Damasceno, Albertino Antonio Moura Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Davila-Cervantes, Claudio Alberto De Univ Washington Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Sch Med Dept Hlth Metr Sci Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Div Allergy & Infect Dis Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Fed Rio Grande do Sul Postgrad Program Epidemiol Porto Alegre RS Brazil Univ Roma La Sapienza Dept Jurid & Econ Studies Rome Italy Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Social Determinants Hlth Res Ctr Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Sch Adv Technol Med Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Dept Epidemiol Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Prevent Metab Disorders Res Ctr Tehran Iran Marshall Univ Dept Surg Huntington WV USA Jahrom Univ Med Sci Zoonoses Res Ctr Jahrom Iran Mayo Clin Evidence Based Practice Ctr Rochester MN USA Mayo Clin Dept Cardiovasc Med Rochester MN USA Mayo Clin Div Endocrinol Rochester MN USA Univ Tehran Med Sci Res Ctr Immunodeficiencies Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Noncommunicable Dis Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Iranian Res Ctr HIV AIDS IRCHA Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Sch Med Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Epidemiol & Biostat Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Pediat Chron Kidney Dis Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Students Sci Res Ctr SSRC Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Sina Trauma & Surg Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Digest Dis Res Inst Tehran Iran Karolinska Univ Hosp Dept Biosci & Nutr Huddinge Sweden Univ Sharjah Dept Clin Sci Sharjah U Arab Emirates Univ Sharjah Coll Med Sharjah U Arab Emirates Univ Sharjah Dept Clin Sci Sharjah U Arab Emirates Univ Sharjah Sharjah Inst Med Res Sharjah U Arab Emirates London Sch Hyg & Trop Med Dept Dis Control London England London Sch Hyg & Trop Med Dept Noncommunicable Dis Epidemiol London England Clin Res Inst Benin IRCB Dept Clin Res Abomey Calavi Benin Padjadjaran State Univ Fac Med Bandung Indonesia Univ Management & Technol Dept Life Sci Lahore Pakistan McMaster Univ Dept Family Med Hamilton ON Canada McMas

Background Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages youn...

Background Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990-2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73.7% (68.3 to 77.4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0.50 (0.44 to 0.58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97.5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0.13 (0.12 to 0.14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0.60 (0.51 to 0.70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0.71 (0.60 to 0.86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r(2)=0.62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17.0% (-28.4 to -2.9) for all diabetes, and by 21.0% (-33.0 to -5.9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13.6% [-28

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Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance 1990-2021: a systematic analysis with forecasts to 2050

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LANCET 2024年第10459期404卷 1199-1226页

作者： Naghavi, Mohsen Vollset, Stein Emil Ikuta, Kevin S. Swetschinski, Lucien R. Gray, Authia P. Wool, Eve E. Aguilar, Gisela Robles Mestrovic, Tomislav Smith, Georgia Han, Chieh Hsu, Rebecca L. Chalek, Julian Araki, Daniel T. Chung, Erin Raggi, Catalina Hayoon, Anna Gershberg Weaver, Nicole Davis Lindstedt, Paulina A. Smith, Amanda E. Altay, Umut Bhattacharjee, Natalia V. Giannakis, Konstantinos Fell, Frederick McManigal, Barney Ekapirat, Nattwut Mendes, Jessica Andretta Runghien, Tilleye Srimokla, Oraya Abdelkader, Atef Abd-Elsalam, Sherief Aboagye, Richard Gyan Abolhassani, Hassan Abualruz, Hasan Abubakar, Usman Abukhadijah, Hana J. Aburuz, Salahdein Abu-Zaid, Ahmed Achalapong, Sureerak Addo, Isaac Yeboah Adekanmbi, Victor Adeyeoluwa, Temitayo Esther Estiningtyas, Qorinah Adnani, Sakilah Adzigbli, Leticia Akua Afzal, Muhammad Sohail Agodi, Saira Afzal Antonella Ahlstrom, Austin J. Ahmad, Aqeel Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmadi, Ali Ahmed, Ayman Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed, Ibrar Ahmed, Mohammed Ahmed, Saeed Ahmed, Syed Anees Akkaif, Mohammed Ahmed Al Awaidy, Salah Al Thaher, Yazan Alalalmeh, Samer O. AlBataineh, Mohammad T. Aldhaleei, Wafa A. Al-Gheethi, Adel Ali Saeed Alhaji, Nma Bida Ali, Abid Ali, Liaqat Ali, Syed Shujait Ali, Waad Allel, Kasim Al-Marwani, Sabah Alrawashdeh, Ahmad Altaf, Awais Al-Tammemi, Alaa B. Al-Tawfiq, Jaffar A. Alzoubi, Karem H. Al-Zyoud, Walid Adnan Ben Amos Amuasi, John H. Ancuceanu, Robert Andrews, Jason R. Anil, Abhishek Anuoluwa, Iyadunni Adesola Anvari, Saeid Anyasodor, Anayochukwu Edward Apostol, Geminn Louis Carace Arabloo, Jalal Arafat, Mosab Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. Areda, Demelash Aremu, Abdulfatai Artamonov, Anton A. Ashley, Elizabeth A. Asika, Marvellous O. Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin Atout, Maha Moh'd Wahbi Awoke, Tewachew Azadnajafabad, Sina Azam, James Mba Aziz, Shahkaar Azzam, Ahmed Y. Babaei, Mahsa Babin, Francois-Xavier Badar, Muhammad Baig, Atif Amin Bajcetic, Milica Baker, Stephen Bardhan, Mainak Barqawi, Hiba Jawdat Basharat, Zarrin Basiru, Afisu Bastard, Mathieu Basu, Saurav Bay Univ Washington Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat Dept Hlth Metr Sci Sch Med Seattle WA 98195 USA Ahvaz Jundishapur Univ Med Sci Dept Microbiol Ahvaz Iran

Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses an important global health challenge in the 21st century. A previous study has quantified the global and regional burden of AMR for 2019, followed with additional public...

Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses an important global health challenge in the 21st century. A previous study has quantified the global and regional burden of AMR for 2019, followed with additional publications that provided more detailed estimates for several WHO regions by country. To date, there have been no studies that produce comprehensive estimates of AMR burden across locations that encompass historical trends and future forecasts. Methods We estimated all-age and age-specific deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with bacterial AMR for 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen-drug combinations, and 11 infectious syndromes in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We collected and used multiple cause of death data, hospital discharge data, microbiology data, literature studies, single drug resistance profiles, pharmaceutical sales, antibiotic use surveys, mortality surveillance, linkage data, outpatient and inpatient insurance claims data, and previously published data, covering 520 million individual records or isolates and 19 513 study-location-years. We used statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all locations, including those with no data. Our approach leverages the estimation of five broad component quantities: the number of deaths involving sepsis;the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome;the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen;the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antibiotic of interest;and the excess risk of death or duration of an infection associated with this resistance. Using these components, we estimated disease burden attributable to and associated with AMR, which we define based on two counterfactuals;respectively, an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections are replaced by drug-susceptible infections, and an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infecti

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Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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LANCET PUBLIC HEALTH 2022年第2期7卷 E105-E125页

作者： Nichols, Emma Steinmetz, Jaimie D. Vollset, Stein Emil Fukutaki, Kai Chalek, Julian Abd-Allah, Foad Abdoli, Amir Abualhasan, Ahmed Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Akram, Tayyaba Tayyaba Al Hamad, Hanadi Alahdab, Fares Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour Alipour, Vahid Almustanyir, Sami Amu, Hubert Ansari, Iman Arabloo, Jalal Ashraf, Tahira Astell-Burt, Thomas Ayano, Getinet Ayuso-Mateos, Jose L. Baig, Atif Amin Barnett, Anthony Barrow, Amadou Baune, Bernhard T. Bejot, Yannick Bezabhe, Woldesellassie M. Mequanint Bezabih, Yihienew Mequanint Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth Bhaskar, Sonu Bhattacharyya, Krittika Bijani, Ali Biswas, Atanu Bolla, Srinivasa Rao Boloor, Archith Brayne, Carol Brenner, Hermann Burkart, Katrin Burns, Richard A. Camera, Luis Alberto Cao, Chao Carvalho, Felix Castro-de-Araujo, Luis F. S. Catala-Lopez, Ferran Cerin, Ester Chavan, Prachi P. Cherbuin, Nicolas Chu, Dinh-Toi Costa, Vera Marisa Couto, Rosa A. S. dadras, omid Dai, Xiaochen Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi De La Cruz-Gongora, Vanessa Dhamnetiya, Deepak da Silva, Diana Dias Diaz, Daniel Douiri, Abdel Edvardsson, David Ekholuenetale, Michael El Sayed, Iman El-Jaafary, Shaimaa, I Eskandari, Khalil Eskandarieh, Sharareh Esmaeilnejad, Saman Fares, Jawad Faro, Andre Farooque, Umar Feigin, Valery L. Feng, Xiaoqi Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad Fernandes, Eduarda Ferrara, Pietro Filip, Irina Fillit, Howard Fischer, Florian Gaidhane, Shilpa Galluzzo, Lucia Ghashghaee, Ahmad Ghith, Nermin Gialluisi, Alessandro Gilani, Syed Amir Glavan, Ionela-Roxana Gnedovskaya, Elena, V Golechha, Mahaveer Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Veer Bala Gupta, Vivek Kumar Haider, Mohammad Rifat Hall, Brian J. Hamidi, Samer Hanif, Asif Hankey, Graeme J. Haque, Shafiul Hartono, Risky Kusuma Hasaballah, Ahmed, I Hasan, M. Tasdik Hassan, Amr Hay, Simon, I Hayat, Khezar Hegazy, Mohamed, I Heidari, Golnaz Heidari-Soureshjani, Reza Herteliu, Claudiu Househ, Mowafa Hussain, Rabia Hwang, Bing-Fang Iacoviello, Licia Iavicoli, Ivo Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen Ilic, Irena M. Ilic, Milena D. Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi Is Univ Washington Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat Seattle WA 98105 USA Univ Washington Sch Med Prof Dept Hlth Metr Sci Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Dept Neurol Seattle WA USA Cairo Univ Dept Neurol Cairo Egypt Jahrom Univ Med Sci Zoonosis Res Ctr Jahrom Iran Univ Sharjah Clin Sci Dept Sharjah U Arab Emirates Univ Sci Malaysia Sch Math Sci George Town Malaysia Univ Sci Malaysia Sch Pharmaceut Sci George Town Malaysia Hamad Med Corp Geriatr & Long Term Care Dept Doha Qatar Hamad Med Corp Rumailah Hosp Doha Qatar Mayo Clinic Fdn Med Educ & Res Mayo Evidence Based Practice Ctr Rochester MN USA Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal Univ Forens Med Div Dammam Saudi Arabia Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal Univ Dept Pharmacol Dammam Saudi Arabia Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal Univ Dammam Saudi Arabia Iran Univ Med Sci Hlth Management & Econ Res Ctr Tehran Iran Iran Univ Med Sci Dept Hlth Econ Tehran Iran Iran Univ Med Sci Student Res Comm Tehran Iran Iran Univ Med Sci Tehran Iran Alfaisal Univ Coll Med Riyadh Saudi Arabia Minist Hlth Riyadh Saudi Arabia Univ Hlth & Allied Sci Dept Populat AndBehav Sci Ho Ghana Shahed Univ Med Students Res Comm Tehran Iran Univ Lahore Univ Inst Radiol Sci & Med Imaging Technol Lahore Pakistan Univ Lahore Fac Allied Hlth Sci Lahore Pakistan Univ Lahore Univ Inst Publ Hlth Lahore Pakistan Univ Wollongong Sch Hlth & Soc Wollongong NSW Australia Univ Sydney Menzies Ctr Hlth Policy Sydney NSW Australia Univ Sydney Save Sight Inst Sydney NSW Australia Curtin Univ Sch Publ Hlth Perth WA Australia Autonomous Univ Madrid Dept Psychiat Madrid Spain Inst Hlth Carlos III CIBERSAM Madrid Spain Inst Hlth Carlos III Natl Sch Publ Hlth Madrid Spain Univ Sultan Zainal Abidin Unit Biochem Kuala Terengganu Malaysia Australian Catholic Univ Mary MacKillop Inst Hlth Res Melbourne Vic Australia Univ Gambia Dept Publ & Environm Hlth Brikama Gambia Minist Hlth Epidemiol & Dis Control Unit Kotu Gambia Univ Munster Dept Psychiat

Background Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of poten...

Background Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors. Methods We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis. Findings We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57middot4 (95% uncertainty interval 50middot4-65middot1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152middot8 (130middot8-175middot9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0middot1% [-7middot5 to 10middot8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1middot69 [1middot64-1middot73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1middot67 [1middot5

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Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific burden of diarrhoeal diseases, their risk factors, and aetiologies, 1990–2021, for 204 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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The Lancet Infectious Diseases 2025年第5期25卷 519-536页

作者： Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe Vongpradith, Avina Dominguez, Regina-Mae Villanueva Ma, Jianing Albertson, Samuel B Novotney, Amanda Khalil, Ibrahim A Troeger, Christopher E Doxey, Matthew C Ledesma, Jorge R Sirota, Sarah Brooke Bender, Rose Grace Swetschinski, Lucien R Cunningham, Matthew Spearman, Sandra Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abd Al Magied, Abdallah H A Abd ElHafeez, Samar Abdoun, Meriem Abera, Bayeh Abidi, Hassan Aboagye, Richard Gyan Abtew, Yonas Derso Abualruz, Hasan Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Abukhadijah, Hana J Aburuz, Salahdein Addo, Isaac Yeboah Adekanmbi, Victor Adetunji, Charles Oluwaseun Oluwaseun Adeyeoluwa, Temitayo Esther Adhikary, Ripon Kumar Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adra, Saryia Adzigbli, Leticia Akua Afolabi, Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afzal, Muhammad Sohail Afzal, Saira Agampodi, Suneth Buddhika Agide, Feleke Doyore Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku Ahmad, Aqeel Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmed, Ayman Ahmed, Ayman Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed, Saeed Akinosoglou, Karolina Akter, Ema Al Awaidy, Salah Alajlani, Muaaz M Alam, Khurshid Albakri, Almaza Albashtawy, Mohammed Aldhaleei, Wafa A Algammal, Abdelazeem M Al-Gheethi, Adel Ali Saeed Ali, Abid Ali, Syed Shujait Ali, Waad Alif, Sheikh Mohammad Aljunid, Syed Mohamed Al-Marwani, Sabah Almazan, Joseph Uy Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M Almustanyir, Sami Alqahatni, Saleh A Alrawashdeh, Ahmad Al-Rifai, Rami H Alsabri, Mohammed A Altaf, Awais Altirkawi, Khalid A Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J Alyahya, Mohammad Sharif Ibrahim Al-Zyoud, Walid A Amugsi, Dickson A Andrei, Catalina Liliana Antoni, Sebastien Anuoluwa, Boluwatife Stephen Anuoluwa, Iyadunni Adesola Anwar, Saleha Anwari, Palwasha Apostol, Geminn Louis Carace Arabloo, Jalal Arafat, Mosab Aravkin, Aleksandr Y Areda, Demelash Aregawi, Brhane Berhe Aremu, Abdulfatai Arndt, Michael Benjamin Asgedom, Akeza Awealom Ashraf, Tahira Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin Atreya, Alok Ayele, Firayad Azadi, Davood Azhar, Gulrez Shah Aziz, Shahkaar Azzam, Ahmed Y. Babu, Giridhara Rathnaiah Bahrami Taghanaki, Pegah Bahramian, Saeed Balakrishnan, Senthilkumar B

Background: Diarrhoeal diseases claim more than 1 million lives annually and are a leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years. Comprehensive global estimates of the diarrhoeal disease burden for specific ...

Background: Diarrhoeal diseases claim more than 1 million lives annually and are a leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years. Comprehensive global estimates of the diarrhoeal disease burden for specific age groups of children younger than 5 years are scarce, and the burden in children older than 5 years and in adults is also understudied. We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 to assess the burden of, and trends in, diarrhoeal diseases overall and attributable to 13 pathogens, as well as the contributions of associated risk factors, in children and adults in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. Methods: We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse vital registration data, verbal autopsy data, mortality surveillance data, and minimally invasive tissue sampling data. We used DisMod-MR (version 2.1), a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews, population-based surveys, and claims and inpatient data. We calculated diarrhoeal disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) for each location, year, and age–sex group. For aetiology estimation, we used a counterfactual approach to quantify population-attributable fractions (PAFs). Additionally, we estimated the diarrhoeal disease burden attributable to the independent effects of risk factors using the comparative risk assessment framework. Findings: In 2021, diarrhoeal diseases caused an estimated 1·17 million (95% uncertainty interval 0·793–1·62) deaths globally, representing a 60·3% (50·6–69·0) decrease since 1990 (2·93 million [2·31–3·73] deaths). The most pronounced decline was in children younger than 5 years, with a 79·2% (72·4–84·6) decrease in diarrhoeal deaths. Global YLLs also decreased substantially, from 186 million (147–221) in 1990 to 51·4 million (39·9–65·9) in 2021. In 2021, an e

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Global investments in pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: development assistance and domestic spending on health between 1990 and 2026

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The Lancet Global Health 2023年第3期11卷 e385-e413页

作者： Micah, Angela E. Bhangdia, Kayleigh Cogswell, Ian E. Lasher, Dylan Lidral-Porter, Brendan Maddison, Emilie R. Nguyen, Trang Nhu Ngoc Patel, Nishali Pedroza, Paola Solorio, Juan Stutzman, Hayley Tsakalos, Golsum Wang, Yifeng Warriner, Wesley Zhao, Yingxi Zlavog, Bianca S. Abbafati, Cristiana Abbas, Jaffar Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab Abdelmasseh, Michael Abdulah, Deldar Morad Abedi, Aidin Abegaz, Kedir Hussein Abhilash, E.S. Aboagye, Richard Gyan Abolhassani, Hassan Abrigo, Michael R.M. Abubaker Ali, Hiwa Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Adem, Mohammed Hussien Afzal, Muhammad Sohail Ahmadi, Ali Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed Rashid, Tarik Aji, Budi Akbarialiabad, Hossein Akelew, Yibeltal Al Hamad, Hanadi Alam, Khurshid Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour Alanzi, Turki M. Al-Hanawi, Mohammed Khaled Alhassan, Robert Kaba Aljunid, Syed Mohamed Almustanyir, Sami Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J. Amare, Azmeraw T. Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena Amini-Rarani, Mostafa Amu, Hubert Ancuceanu, Robert Andrei, Tudorel Anwar, Sumadi Lukman Appiah, Francis Aqeel, Muhammad Arabloo, Jalal Arab-Zozani, Morteza Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. Aremu, Olatunde Aruleba, Raphael Taiwo Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin Avila-Burgos, Leticia Ayanore, Martin Amogre Azari, Samad Baig, Atif Amin Bantie, Abere Tilahun Barrow, Amadou Baskaran, Pritish Basu, Sanjay Batiha, Abdul-Monim Mohammad Baune, Bernhard T. Berezvai, Zombor Bhardwaj, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhaskar, Sonu Boachie, Micheal Kofi Bodolica, Virginia Botelho, João Silva Botelho Braithwaite, Dejana Breitborde, Nicholas J.K. Busse, Reinhard Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero Catalá-López, Ferrán Chansa, Collins Charan, Jaykaran Chattu, Vijay Kumar Chen, Simiao Chukwu, Isaac Sunday dadras, omid Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dargahi, Abdollah Debela, Sisay Abebe Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar Desye, Belay Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda Diao, Nancy Doan, Linh Phuong Dodangeh, Milad dos Santos, Wendel Mombaque Doshmangir, Leila Dube, John Eini, Ebrahim El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa El Tantawi, Maha Enyew, Daniel Berhanie Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Applied Mathematics University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Nuffield Department of Medicine University of Oxford Oxford United Kingdom Department of Juridical and Economic Studies La Sapienza University Rome Italy Antai College of Economics Shanghai Jiao Tong University Shanghai China Non-communicable Diseases Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Research Center for Immunodeficiencies Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Multiple Sclerosis Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Children’s Medical Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Tehran Heart Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Faculty of Medicine Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran National Institute for Health Research Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Pharmacology Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Cardiology Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Digestive Diseases Research Institute Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Neurology Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Social Determinants of Health Research Center Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Epidemiology Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Health Economics and Statistics Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Neurosurgery Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Ophthalmic R

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted gaps in health surveillance systems, disease prevention, and treatment globally. Among the many factors that might have led to these gaps is the issue of the financing of ...

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted gaps in health surveillance systems, disease prevention, and treatment globally. Among the many factors that might have led to these gaps is the issue of the financing of national health systems, especially in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), as well as a robust global system for pandemic preparedness. We aimed to provide a comparative assessment of global health spending at the onset of the pandemic;characterise the amount of development assistance for pandemic preparedness and response disbursed in the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic;and examine expectations for future health spending and put into context the expected need for investment in pandemic preparedness. Methods: In this analysis of global health spending between 1990 and 2021, and prediction from 2021 to 2026, we estimated four sources of health spending: development assistance for health (DAH), government spending, out-of-pocket spending, and prepaid private spending across 204 countries and territories. We used the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)'s Creditor Reporting System (CRS) and the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database (GHED) to estimate spending. We estimated development assistance for general health, COVID-19 response, and pandemic preparedness and response using a keyword search. Health spending estimates were combined with estimates of resources needed for pandemic prevention and preparedness to analyse future health spending patterns, relative to need. Findings: In 2019, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, US$9·2 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·1–9·3) was spent on health worldwide. We found great disparities in the amount of resources devoted to health, with high-income countries spending $7·3 trillion (95% UI 7·2–7·4) in 2019;293·7 times the $24·8 billion (95% UI 24·3–25·3) spent by low-income countries in 2019. That same year, $43·1 billion in development assistance was provided

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Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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LANCET 2021年第10292期397卷 2337-2360页

作者： Reitsma, Marissa B. Reitsma, Marissa B. Kendrick, Parkes J. Ababneh, Emad Abbafati, Cristiana Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen Abdoli, Amir Abedi, Aidin Abhilash, E. S. Abila, Derrick Bary Aboyans, Victor Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E. Adebayo, Oladimeji M. Advani, Shailesh M. Aghaali, Mohammad Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku Ahmad, Sohail Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmed, Haroon Aji, Budi Akunna, Chisom Joyqueenet Al-Aly, Ziyad Alanzi, Turki M. Alhabib, Khalid F. Ali, Liaqat Alif, Sheikh Mohammad Alipour, Vahid Aljunid, Syed Mohamed Alla, Francois Allebeck, Peter Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Amin, Tarek Tawfik Amini, Saeed Amu, Hubert Amul, Gianna Gayle Herrera Ancuceanu, Robert Anderson, Jason A. Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. Antony, Benny Anvari, Davood Arabloo, Jalal Arian, Nicholas D. Arora, Monika Asaad, Malke Ausloos, Marcel Awan, Asma Tahir Ayano, Getinet Aynalem, Getie Lake Azari, Samad Darshan, B. B. Badiye, Ashish D. Baig, Atif Amin Bakhshaei, Mohammad Hossein Banach, Maciej Banik, Palash Chandra Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn Barnighausen, Till Winfried Barqawi, Hiba Jawdat Basu, Sanjay Bayati, Mohsen Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad Behzadifar, Masoud Bekuma, Tariku Tesfaye Bennett, Derrick A. Bensenor, Isabela M. Berfield, Kathleen S. Sachiko Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth Bhardwaj, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhattacharyya, Krittika Bibi, Sadia Bijani, Ali Bintoro, Bagas Suryo Biondi, Antonio Birara, Setognal Braithwaite, Dejana Brenner, Hermann Brunoni, Andre R. Burkart, Katrin Butt, Zahid A. Caetano dos Santos, Florentino Luciano Alberto Camera, Luis Car, Josip Cardenas, Rosario Carreras, Giulia Carrero, Juan J. Castaldelli-Maia, Joao Mauricio Cattaruzza, Maria Sofia Sofia Chang, Jung-Chen Chen, Simiao Chu, Dinh-Toi Chung, Sheng-Chia Cirillo, Massimo Costa, Vera Marisa Couto, Rosa A. S. dadras, omid Dai, Xiaochen Damasceno, Albertino Antonio Moura Damiani, Giovanni Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Daneshpajouhnejad, Parnaz Gela, Jiregna Darega Davletov, Kairat Molla, Meseret Derbew Dessie, Getenet Ayalew Desta, Abebaw Alemayehu Dharma Univ Washington Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Surg Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Sch Med Dept Hlth Metr Sci Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Seattle WA 98195 USA Cleveland Clin Pathol & Lab Med Inst Cleveland OH 44106 USA Cleveland Clin Dept Internal Med Cleveland OH 44106 USA Cleveland Clin Dept Cardiovasc Med Cleveland OH 44106 USA Cleveland Clin Dept Internal Med Cleveland OH 44106 USA Univ Roma La Sapienza Dept Jurid & Econ Studies Rome Italy Univ Roma La Sapienza Dept Publ Hlth & Infect Dis Rome Italy Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Social Determinants Hlth Res Ctr Tehran Iran Jahrom Univ Med Sci Dept Parasitol & Mycol Jahrom Iran Univ Southern Calif Dept Orthopaed Surg Los Angeles CA 90007 USA Univ Southern Calif Dept Radiol Los Angeles CA 90007 USA Sree Narayana Guru Coll Chelannur Dept Bot Kozhikode India Makerere Univ Dept Pathol Kampala Uganda Univ Manchester Fac Biol Med & Hlth Manchester Lancs England Dupuytren Univ Hosp Dept Cardiol Limoges France Univ Limoges Limoges France Birzeit Univ Inst Community & Publ Hlth Ramallah Palestine Univ Coll Hosp Coll Med Ibadan Nigeria Univ Coll Hosp Dept Community Med Ibadan Nigeria Univ Coll Hosp Dept Med Ibadan Nigeria NIH Social Behav Res Branch Bldg 10 Bethesda MD 20892 USA Georgetown Univ Dept Oncol Washington DC USA Qom Univ Med Sci Dept Epidemiol & Biostat Qom Iran Univ Technol Sydney Australian Ctr Publ & Populat Hlth Res ACPPHR Sydney NSW Australia Univ Technol Sydney Sch Hlth Sydney NSW Australia MAHSA Univ Fac Pharm Kuala Langat Malaysia Univ Nottingham Lincoln Med Sch Lincoln England Univ Lincoln Lincoln Med Sch Lincoln England COMSATS Inst Informat Technol Dept Biosci Islamabad Pakistan Jenderal Soedirman Univ Fac Med & Publ Hlth Purwokerto Indonesia Intercountry Ctr Oral Hlth ICOH Africa Dept Publ Hlth Jos Nigeria Fed Minist Hlth Dept Publ Hlth Garki Nigeria Washington Univ John T Milliken Dept Inte

Background Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide t...

Background Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally. Methods We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available. Findings Globally in 2019, 1.14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1.13-1.16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7.41 trillion (7.11-7.74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27.5% [26. 5-28.5] reduction) and females (37.7% [35.4-39.9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0.99 billion (0.98-1.00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7.69 million (7.16-8.20) deaths and 200 million (185-214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20.2% [19.3-21.1] of male deaths). 6.68 million [86.9%] of 7.69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers. Interpretation In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7.69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial prog

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Global, regional, and national stillbirths at 20 weeks' gestation or longer in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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LANCET 2024年第10466期404卷 1955-1988页

作者： Comfort, Haley McHugh, Theresa A. Schumacher, Austin E. Harris, Ashley May, Erin A. Paulson, Katherine R. Gardner, William M. Fuller, John E. Frisch, Meghan E. Taylor, Heather Jean Leever, Andrew T. Teply, Corey Verghese, Nicholas Alexander Alam, Tahiya Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abbastabar, Hedayat Abd ElHafeez, Samar Abdelmasseh, Michael Abd-Elsalam, Sherief Abdissa, Daba Abdoun, Meriem Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abebe, Mesfin Abedi, Aidin Abidi, Hassan Abiodun, Olumide Aboagye, Richard Gyan Abolhassani, Hassan Abrigo, Michael R. M. Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E. Adane, Mesafint Molla Addo, Isaac Yeboah Adema, Bulcha Guye Adesina, Miracle Ayomikun Adetunji, Charles Oluwaseun Adeyinka, Daniel Adedayo Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Afzal, Saira Agampodi, Suneth Buddhika Agodi, Antonella Agyemang-Duah, Williams Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku Ahmad, Aqeel Ahmadi, Danish Ahmad Ali Ahmed, Ayman Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed, Luai A. Ajami, Marjan Akinosoglou, Karolina Al Hasan, Syed Mahfuz Al-Aly, Ziyad Alam, Khurshid Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour Alanzi, Turki M. Albashtawy, Mohammed Alemi, Sharifullah Algammal, Abdelazeem M. Al-Gheethi, Adel Ali Saeed Ali, Abid Ali, Liaqat Ali, Mohammed Usman Alif, Sheikh Mohammad Aljunid, Syed Mohamed Almazan, Joseph Uy Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M. Almidani, Louay Almustanyir, Sami Altirkawi, Khalid A. Aly, Hany Aly, Safwat Amani, Reza Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena Amhare, Abebe Feyissa Amin, Tarek Tawfik Amiri, Sohrab Andrei, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Anoushiravani, Amir Ansar, Adnan Anvari, Davood Anwer, Razique Appiah, Francis Arab-Zozani, Morteza Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. Areda, Demelash Aregawi, Brhane Berhe Artamonov, Anton A. Aryal, Umesh Raj Asemi, Zatollah Asemu, Mulu Tiruneh Asgedom, Akeza Awealom Ashraf, Tahira Asresie, Melash Belachew Atlaw, Daniel Atout, Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atreya, Alok Atteraya, Madhu Sudhan Aujayeb, Avinash Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayatollahi, Haleh Ayyoubzadeh, Seyed Mohammad Azadnajafabad, Sina Azevedo, Rui M. S. Azzam, Ahmed Y. Darshan, B. B. Ba Univ Washington Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Appl Math Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Hlth Metr Sci Sch Med Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Epidemiol Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Sch Hlth Syst & Publ Hlth Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Global Hlth Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Anesthesiol & Pain Med Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Pharm Seattle WA 98195 USA Aleta Wondo Gen Hosp Dept Clin Governance & Qual Improvement Aleta Wondo Ethiopia Univ Tehran Med Sci Adv Diagnost & Intervent Radiol Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Res Ctr Immunodeficiencies Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Digest Dis Res Inst Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Hlth Informat Management Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Neurosicence Inst Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Sch Med Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Iranian Res Ctr HIV AIDS Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Neurosurg Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Noncommunicable Dis Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Students Sci Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Sina Trauma & Surg Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Childrens Med Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Pediat Cardiol Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Internal Med Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Master Publ Hlth Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Endocrinol & Metab Res Inst Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Iranian Res Ctr HIV AIDS Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Neurol Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Canc Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Canc Biol Res Ctr Tehran Iran Alexandria Univ Dept Epidemiol Alexandria Egypt Alexandria Univ Trop Hlth Dept Alexandria Egypt Marshall Univ Dept Surg Huntington WV USA Tanta Univ Dept Trop Med & Infect Dis Tanta Egypt Dept Hlth Dept Publ Hlth Jimma Ethiopia Diabet Res Ctr Dept Hlth Jimma Ethiopia Univ Setif Algeria Dept Med Setif Algeria Dept Hlth Set

Background Stillbirth is a devastating and often avoidable adverse pregnancy outcome. Monitoring stillbirth levels and trends-in a comprehensive manner that leaves no one uncounted-is imperative for continuing progres...

Background Stillbirth is a devastating and often avoidable adverse pregnancy outcome. Monitoring stillbirth levels and trends-in a comprehensive manner that leaves no one uncounted-is imperative for continuing progress in pregnancy loss reduction. This analysis, completed as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, methodically accounted for different stillbirth definitions with the aim of comprehensively estimating all stillbirths at 20 weeks or longer for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. Methods We extracted data on stillbirths from 11 412 sources across 185 of 204 countries and territories, including 234 surveys, 231 published studies, 1633 vital statistics reports, and 10 585 unique location-year combinations from vital registration systems. Our final dataset comprised 11 different definitions, which were adjusted to match two gestational age thresholds: 20 weeks or longer (reference) and 28 weeks or longer ( for comparisons). We modelled the ratio of stillbirth rate to neonatal mortality rate with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression for each location and year, and then used final GBD 2021 assessments of fertility and all-cause neonatal mortality to calculate total stillbirths. Secondary analyses evaluated the number of stillbirths missed with the more restrictive gestational age definition, trends in stillbirths as a function of Socio-demographic Index, and progress in reducing stillbirths relative to neonatal deaths. Findings In 2021, the global stillbirth rate was 23 center dot 0 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 19 center dot 7-27 center dot 2) per 1000 births (stillbirths plus livebirths) at 20 weeks' gestation or longer, compared to 16 center dot 1 (13 center dot 9-19 center dot 0) per 1000 births at 28 weeks' gestation or longer. The global neonatal mortality rate in 2021 was 17 center dot 1 (14 center dot 8-19 center dot 9) per 1000 livebirths, corresponding to 2 center dot 19 million (1 cent

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Publisher Correction: Global estimates on the number of people blind or visually impaired by cataract: a meta-analysis from 2000 to 2020

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Eye (London, England) 2024年第11期38卷 2229-2231页

作者： Konrad Pesudovs Hugh R. Taylor Tabassom Sedighi Rupert R. A. Bourne Shahina Pardhan Van Charles Lansingh John H. Kempen Ian Tapply Arthur G. Fernandes Maria Vittoria Cicinelli Alessandro Arrigo Nicolas Leveziel Serge Resnikoff Seth Flaxman Mukkharram M. Bikbov Tasanee Braithwaite Alain Bron Ching-Yu Cheng Monte A. Del Monte Joshua R. Ehrlich Leon B. Ellwein David Friedman João M. Furtado Gus Gazzard Ronnie George M. Elizabeth Hartnett Jost B. Jonas Rim Kahloun Moncef Khairallah Rohit C. Khanna Janet Leasher Julie-Anne Little Vinay Nangia Michal Nowak Tunde Peto Pradeep Ramulu Fotis Topouzis Mitiadis Tsilimbaris Ya Xing Wang Ningli Wang Paul Svitil Briant Theo Vos Katrin Burkart Kaleb Coberly Xiaochen Dai Stephen S. Lim Tomislav Mestrovic Ali H. Mokdad Christopher J. L. Murray Jaimie D. Steinmetz Awoke Misganaw Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate Mohammad Abdollahi Mozhan Abdollahi Ayele Mamo Abebe Olumide Abiodun Richard Gyan Aboagye Woldu Aberhe Abrha Hasan Abualruz Hiwa Abubaker Ali Eman Abu-Gharbieh Salahdein Aburuz Tadele Girum Girum Adal Mesafint Molla Adane Isaac Yeboah Addo Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Muhammad Sohail Afzal Muhammad Umair Shahin Aghamiri Bright Opoku Ahinkorah Aqeel Ahmad Sajjad Ahmad Ali Ahmadi Siamak Sabour Ayman Ahmed Haroon Ahmed Ahmad Samir Alfaar Abid Ali Syed Shujait Shujait Ali Awais Altaf Hubert Amu Emmanuel Manu Sofia Androudi Rodrigo Anguita Abhishek Anil Rimple Jeet Kaur Muhammad Aaqib Shamim Saeid Anvari Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor Francis Appiah Jalal Arabloo Haleh Ayatollahi Mosab Arafat Damelash Areda Reza Arefnezhad Brhane Berhe Aregawi Akeza Awealom Asgedom Tahira Ashraf Seyyed Shamsadin Athari Bantalem Tilaye Tilaye Atinafu Birhan Tsegaw Taye Maha Moh’d Wahbi Atout Alok Atreya Ahmed Y. Azzam Hassan Babamohamadi Sara Bagherieh Yogesh Bahurupi Atif Amin Baig Shumaila Nargus Biswajit Banik Mainak Bardhan Saurav Basu Kavita Batra Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn Fatemeh Bazvand Addisu Shunu Beyene Awoke Masrie Asrat Derese Devidas S. Bhagat Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula Pankaj Bh Medicine & Health University of New South Wales Sydney NSW Australia School of Optometry and Vision Science University of New South Wales Sydney NSW Australia School of Population and Global Health University of Melbourne Carlton VIC Australia Vision and Eye Research Institute Anglia Ruskin University Cambridge UK HelpMeSee Instituto Mexicano de Oftalmologia Santiago de Querétaro Mexico University of Miami Gables FL USA University of Utah Salt Lake City UT USA Chief Medical Office HelpMeSee New York NY USA Mexican Institute of Ophthalmology Queretaro Mexico Department of Ophthalmology Massachusetts Eye and Ear/Shepens Eye Research Institute/Harvard Medical School Boston MA USA Eye Unit MyungSung Christian Medical Center (MCM) Comprehensive Specialized Hospital and MyungSun Medical College Addis Ababa Ethiopia Department of Ophthalmology Addis Ababa University Addis Ababa Ethiopia Sight for Souls Bellevue WA USA Department of Ophthalmology Harvard University Boston MA USA Eye Unit MyungSung Medical College Addis Ababa Ethiopia Addenbrooke’s Hospital Cambridge UK Department of Ophthalmology Cambridge University Hospitals Cambridge UK Federal University of Sao Paolo Sao Paolo SP Brazil University of Calgary Calgary AB Canada Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences Federal University of São Paulo Sao Paulo Brazil School of Medicine Vita-Salute San Raffaele University Milan Italy Department of Ophthalmology IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute Milan Italy Department of Ophthalmology San Raffaele Scientific Institute Milano Italy IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute Vita-Salute University Milan Italy Scientific Institute San Raffaele Hospital Vita-Salute University Milan Italy University of Poitiers Poitiers France CHU de Poitiers Poitiers France Ophthalmology Department CHU de Poitiers (Poitiers University Hospital) Poitiers France Unité 1084 National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM) Poitiers France

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Global, regional, and national burden of HIV/AIDS, 1990-2021, and forecasts to 2050, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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LANCET HIV 2024年第12期11卷 E807-E822页

作者： Carter, Austin Zhang, Meixin Khai Hoan Tram Walters, Magdalene K. Jahagirdar, Deepa Brewer, Edmond D. Novotney, Amanda Lasher, Dylan Mpolya, Emmanuel A. Vongpradith, Avina Ma, Jianing Verma, Megan Frank, Tahvi D. He, Jiawei Byrne, Sam Lin, Christine Dominguez, Regina-Mae Villanueva Pease, Spencer A. Comfort, Haley May, Erin A. Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abbastabar, Hedayat Abdelkader, Atef Abdi, Parsa Abdoun, Meriem Aziz, Jeza Muhamad Abdul Abidi, Hassan Abiodun, Olumide Aboagye, Richard Gyan Abreu, Lucas Guimaraes Abtew, Yonas Derso Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Aburuz, Salahdein Abu-Zaid, Ahmed Addo, Isaac Yeboah Adegboye, Oyelola A. Adekanmbi, Victor Adetunji, Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji, Juliana Bunmi Adeyinka, Daniel Adedayo Adhikari, Kishor Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adzigbli, Leticia Akua Afrashteh, Fatemeh Afzal, Saira Aghamiri, Shahin Agide, Feleke Doyore Agodi, Antonella Agyemang-Duah, Williams Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku Ahmad, Faisal Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Shahzaib Ahmad, Aqeel Ahmed, Ibrar Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed, Syed Anees Ahmed, Safoora Ahmed, Ali Ahmed, Mohammed Ahmed, Ayman Akalu, Gizachew Taddesse Akinosoglou, Karolina Al Awaidy, Salah Al Hamad, Hanadi Al Mosa, Amjad S. Al Zaabi, Omar Ali Mohammed Alalalmeh, Samer O. Alam, Nazmul Alam, Noore Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour Alayu, Daniel Shewaye AlBataineh, Mohammad T. Alemohammad, Seyedeh Yasaman Al-Gheethi, Adel Ali Saeed Ali, Syed Shujait Ali, Mohammed Usman Ali, Abid Ali, Liaqat Ali, Waad Al-Ibraheem, Akram Almazan, Joseph Uy Altaf, Awais Altwalbeh, Diala Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Al-Zyoud, Walid Adnan Amani, Reza Amera, Tewodros Getnet Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena Amiri, Sohrab Amu, Hubert Amusa, Ganiyu Adeniyi Anil, Abhishek Anjorin, Abdul-Azeez Adeyemi Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. Anwar, Saleha Anwer, Razique Anyabolo, Ekenedilichukwu Emmanuel Anyasodor, Anayochukwu Edward Apostol, Geminn Louis Carace Ardekani, Ali Areda, Er Aregawi, Brhane Berhe Aremu, Abdulfatai Armani, Keivan Asemahagn, Mulusew A. Ashemo, Mubarek Yesse Ashraf, Tahira Asika, Marvellous O. Asmerom, Haf Univ Washington Dept Hlth Metr Sci Sch Med Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat Seattle WA 98195 USA

Background As set out in Sustainable Development Goal 3.3, the target date for ending the HIV epidemic as a public health threat is 2030. Therefore, there is a crucial need to evaluate current epidemiological trends a...

Background As set out in Sustainable Development Goal 3.3, the target date for ending the HIV epidemic as a public health threat is 2030. Therefore, there is a crucial need to evaluate current epidemiological trends and monitor global progress towards HIV incidence and mortality reduction goals. In this analysis, we assess the current burden of HIV in 204 countries and territories and forecast HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality up to 2050 to allow countries to plan for a sustained response with an increasing number of people living with HIV globally. Methods We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 analytical framework to compute age-sex-specific HIV mortality, incidence, and prevalence estimates for204 countries and territories (1990-2021). We aimed to analyse all available data sources, including data on the provision of HIV programmes reported to UNAIDS, published literature on mortality among people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) identified by a systematic review, household surveys, sentinel surveillance antenatal care clinic data, vital registration data, and country-level case report data. We calibrated a mechanistic simulation of HIV infection and natural history to available data to estimate HIV burden from 1990 to 2021 and generated forecasts to 2050 through projection of all simulation inputs into the future. Historical outcomes (1990-2021) were simulated at the 1000-draw level to support propagation of uncertainty and reporting of uncertainty intervals (UIs). Our approach to forecasting utilised the transmission rate as the basis for projection, along with new rate-of-change projections of ART coverage. Additionally, we introduced two new metrics to our reporting: prevalence of unsuppressed viraemia (PUV), which represents the proportion of the population without a suppressed level of HIV (viral load <1000 copies per mL), and period lifetime probability of HIV acquisition, which quantifies the hypothetical

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Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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LANCET NEUROLOGY 2021年第10期20卷 795-820页

作者： Feigin, Valery L. Stark, Benjamin A. Johnson, Catherine Owens Roth, Gregory A. Bisignano, Catherine Abady, Gdiom Gebreheat Abbasifard, Mitra Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen Abd-Allah, Foad Abedi, Vida Abualhasan, Ahmed Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me Abushouk, Abdelrahman, I Adebayo, Oladimeji M. Agarwal, Gina Agasthi, Pradyumna Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku Ahmad, Sohail Ahmadi, Sepideh Salih, Yusra Ahmed Aji, Budi Akbarpour, Samaneh Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola Al Hamad, Hanadi Alahdab, Fares Alif, Sheikh Mohammad Alipour, Vahid Aljunid, Syed Mohamed Almustanyir, Sami Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. Salman, Rustam Al-Shahi Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Ancuceanu, Robert Anderlini, Deanna Anderson, Jason A. Ansar, Adnan Antonazzo, Ippazio Cosimo Arabloo, Jalal Arnlov, Johan Artanti, Kurnia Dwi Aryan, Zahra Asgari, Samaneh Ashraf, Tahira Athar, Mohammad Atreya, Alok Ausloos, Marcel Baig, Atif Amin Baltatu, Ovidiu Constantin Banach, Maciej Barboza, Miguel A. Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn Barnighausen, Till Winfried Barone, Mark Thomaz Ugliara Basu, Sanjay Bazmandegan, Gholamreza Beghi, Ettore Beheshti, Mahya Bejot, Yannick Bell, Arielle Wilder Bennett, Derrick A. Bensenor, Isabela M. Bezabhe, Woldesellassie Mequanint Bezabih, Yihienew Mequanint Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhattacharyya, Krittika Bijani, Ali Bikbov, Boris Birhanu, Mulugeta M. Boloor, Archith Bonny, Aime Brauer, Michael Brenner, Hermann Bryazka, Dana Butt, Zahid A. dos Santos, Florentino Luciano Caetano Campos-Nonato, Ismael R. Cantu-Brito, Carlos Carrero, Juan J. Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A. Catapano, Alberico L. Chakraborty, Promit Ananyo Charan, Jaykaran Choudhari, Sonali Gajanan Chowdhury, Enayet Karim Chu, Dinh-Toi Chung, Sheng-Chia Colozza, David Costa, Vera Marisa Costanzo, Simona Criqui, Michael H. dadras, omid Dagnew, Baye Dai, Xiaochen Dalal, Koustuv Damasceno, Albertino Antonio Moura D'Amico, Emanuele Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Gela, Jiregna Darega Davletov, Kairat De La Cruz-Gongora, Vanessa Desai, Rupak Dhamnetiya, Deepak Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda Dhimal, Mand Auckland Univ Technol Natl Inst Stroke & Appl Neurosci Auckland New Zealand Univ Washington Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Div Cardiol Sch Med Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Sch Med Dept Hlth Metr Sci Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Dept Neurol Surg Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Neurol Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Dept Anesthesiol & Pain Med Seattle WA USA Res Ctr Neurol Dept Neurol 3 Moscow Russia Res Ctr Neurol Moscow Russia Adigrat Univ Dept Nursing Adigrat Ethiopia Rafsanjan Univ Med Sci Dept Internal Med Rafsanjan Iran Rafsanjan Univ Med Sci Clin Res Dev Unit Rafsanjan Iran Rafsanjan Univ Med Sci Family Med Dept Rafsanjan Iran Rafsanjan Univ Med Sci Dept Neurol Rafsanjan Iran Rafsanjan Univ Med Sci Noncommunicable Dis Res Ctr Rafsanjan Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Social Determinants Hlth Res Ctr Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Sch Adv Technol Med Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Prevent Metab Disorders Res Ctr Tehran Iran Cairo Univ Dept Neurol Cairo Egypt Geisinger Hlth Syst Dept Mol & Funct Genom Danville PA USA Geisinger Hlth Syst Dept Neurosci Danville PA USA Virginia Tech Biocomplex Inst Blacksburg VA USA Birzeit Univ Inst Community & Publ Hlth Ramallah Palestine Harvard Univ Harvard Med Sch Boston MA 02115 USA Harvard Univ Brigham & Womens Hosp Boston MA 02115 USA Harvard Univ TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth Boston MA 02115 USA Harvard Univ Ctr Primary Care Boston MA 02115 USA Harvard Univ Dept Global Hlth & Social Med Boston MA 02115 USA Harvard Univ Div Cardiol Boston MA 02115 USA Harvard Univ Dept Med Boston MA 02115 USA Harvard Univ Dept Internal Med Boston MA 02115 USA Harvard Univ Div Gen Internal Med Boston MA 02115 USA Ain Shams Univ Dept Med Cairo Egypt Ain Shams Univ Neurol Dept Cairo Egypt Ain Shams Univ Dept Entomol Cairo Egypt Univ Coll Hosp Coll Med Ibadan Nigeria Univ Coll Hosp Dept Community Med Ibadan Nigeria Univ Coll

Background Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based ...

Background Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels. Methods We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level. Findings In 2019, there were 12.2 million (95% UI 11.0-13.6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93.2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6.55 million (6.00-7.02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11.6% [10.8-12.2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5.7% [5.1-6.2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70.0% (67.0-73.0), prevalent strokes increased by 85.0% (83.0-88.0), deaths from stroke increased by 43.0% (31.0-55.0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32.0% (22.0-42.0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17.0% (15.0-18.0), mortality decreased by 36.0% (31.0-42.0), prevalence decreased by 6.0% (5.0-7.0), and DALYs decreased by 36.0% (31.0-42.0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22.0% (21.0-24.0) and incidence rates

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