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Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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LANCET 2024年第10440期403卷 2100-2132页

作者： Naghavi, Mohsen Ong, Kanyin Liane Aali, Amirali Ababneh, Hazim S. Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abbafati, Cristiana Abbasgholizadeh, Rouzbeh Abbasian, Mohammadreza Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen Abbastabar, Hedayat Abd ElHafeez, Samar Abdelmasseh, Michael Abd-Elsalam, Sherief Abdelwahab, Ahmed Abdollahi, Mohammad Abdollahifar, Mohammad-Amin Abdoun, Meriem Abdulah, Deldar Morad Abdullahi, Auwal Abebe, Mesfin Abebe, Samrawit Shawel Abedi, Aidin Abegaz, Kedir Hussein Abhilash, E. S. Abidi, Hassan Abiodun, Olumide Aboagye, Richard Gyan Abolhassani, Hassan Abolmaali, Meysam Abouzid, Mohamed Aboye, Girma Beressa Abreu, Lucas Guimaraes Abrha, Woldu Aberhe Abtahi, Dariush Abu Rumeileh, Samir Abualruz, Hasan Abubakar, Bilyaminu Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E. Aburuz, Salahdein Abu-Zaid, Ahmed Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou Adal, Tadele Girum Adamu, Abdu A. Addo, Isaac Yeboah Addolorato, Giovanni Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi Adekanmbi, Victor Adepoju, Abiola Victor Adetunji, Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji, Juliana Bunmi Adeyeoluwa, Temitayo Esther Adeyinka, Daniel Adedayo Adeyomoye, Olorunsola Israel Admass, Biruk Adie Adie Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adra, Saryia Afolabi, Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afzal, Muhammad Sohail Afzal, Saira Agampodi, Suneth Buddhika Agasthi, Pradyumna Aggarwal, Manik Aghamiri, Shahin Agide, Feleke Doyore Agodi, Antonella Agrawal, Anurag Agyemang-Duah, Williams Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku Ahmad, Aqeel Ahmad, Danish Ahmad, Firdos Ahmad, Muayyad M. Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Shahzaib Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmadzade, Amir Mahmoud Ahmed, Ali Ahmed, Ayman Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed, Luai A. Ahmed, Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed, Meqdad Saleh Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Syed Anees Ajami, Marjan Aji, Budi Akara, Essona Matatom Akbarialiabad, Hossein Akinosoglou, Karolina Akinyemiju, Tomi Akkaif, Mohammed Ahmed Akyirem, Samuel Al Hamad, Hanadi Al Hasan, Syed Mahfuz Alahdab, Fares Alalalmeh, Samer O. Alalwan, Tariq A. Al-Aly, Ziyad Alam, Khurshid Alam, Manjurul Alam, Noore Al-Amer, Rasmieh Mustafa Alanezi, Fahad Univ Washington Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Sch Med Dept Hlth Metr Sci Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Dept Appl Math Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Dept Global Hlth Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Sch Med Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Dept Internal Med Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Dept Cardiol Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Dept Hlth Syst & Populat Hlth Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Dept Pediat Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Dept Family Med Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Dept Neurol Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Dept Anesthesiol & Pain Med Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Div Plast & Reconstruct Surg Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Henry M Jackson Sch Int Studies Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Div Cardiol Seattle WA USA Mashhad Univ Med Sci Fac Med Mashhad Razavi Khorasan Iran Mashhad Univ Med Sci Dept Neurosci Mashhad Razavi Khorasan Iran Mashhad Univ Med Sci Dent Res Ctr Mashhad Razavi Khorasan Iran Mashhad Univ Med Sci Dept Orthodont Mashhad Razavi Khorasan Iran Mashhad Univ Med Sci Clin Res Dev Unit Mashhad Razavi Khorasan Iran Mashhad Univ Med Sci Appl Biomed Res Ctr Mashhad Razavi Khorasan Iran Mashhad Univ Med Sci Biotechnol Res Ctr Mashhad Razavi Khorasan Iran Mashhad Univ Med Sci Dept Med Informat Mashhad Razavi Khorasan Iran Mashhad Univ Med Sci Clin Res Dev Unit Mashhad Razavi Khorasan Iran Mashhad Univ Med Sci Dept Med Genet Mashhad Razavi Khorasan Iran Massachusetts Gen Hosp Radiat Oncol Boston MA USA Massachusetts Gen Hosp Dept Orthopaed Surg Boston MA USA Massachusetts Gen Hosp Div Cardiol Boston MA USA Massachusetts Gen Hosp Dept Radiol Boston MA USA Massachusetts Gen Hosp Cardiovasc Res Ctr Boston MA USA Aleta Wondo Hosp Dept Clin Governance & Qual Improvement Aleta Wondo Ethiopia Univ Roma La Sapienza Dept Jurid & Econ Studies Rome Italy Univ Roma La Sapienza Dept Publ Hlth & Infect Dis Rome Italy Univ Calif Los Angeles Doheny Eye Inst Los Angeles CA

Background Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. Methods The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location

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Characterising acute and chronic care needs: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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Nature communications 2025年第1期16卷 4235-4235页

作者： Cecilia Anza-Ramirez J. Jaime Miranda Benedetta Armocida Jorge César Correia Harriette Gillian Christine Van Spall David Beran Amirali Aali Kalkidan Hassen Abate Semagn Mekonnen Abate Cristiana Abbafati Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari Zahra Aryan Sina Azadnajafabad Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari Mohammad Keykhaei Javad Khanali Sara Momtazmanesh Fateme Montazeri Shayan Rahmani Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi Nazila Rezaei Negar Rezaei Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam Hossein Hassanian-Moghaddam Ali-Asghar Kolahi Ali Nikoobar Hedayat Abbastabar Ahmed M. Abdel-Azeem Michael Abdelmasseh Juan Sanabria Sherief Abd-Elsalam Ahmed Abdelwahab Gholamreza Abdoli Mohammad Abdollahi Meriem Abdoun Deldar Morad Abdulah Abu Yousuf Md Abdullah Ame Mehadi Abdurehman Getachew Abebe Aidin Abedi Chirag P. Doshi Vida Abedi Hassan Abidi Richard Gyan Aboagye Hassan Abolhassani Nima Rezaei Lucas Guimarães Abreu Michael R. M. Abrigo Yonas Derso Abtew Hiwa Abubaker Ali Eman Abu-Gharbieh Hiba Jawdat Barqawi Rabih Halwani Maha Mohamed Saber-Ayad Iman M. Talaat Ahmed Abu-Zaid Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi Juan Manuel Acuna Denberu Eshetie Adane Tigist Demssew Adane Isaac Yeboah Addo Giovanni Addolorato Oluwafemi Atanda Adeagbo Victor Adekanmbi Miracle Ayomikun Adesina Isaac Iyinoluwa Olufadewa Olatunji O. Adetokunboh Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi Muhammad Sohail Afzal Saira Afzal Gina Agarwal Prerna Agarwal Pradyumna Agasthi Anurag Agrawal Marcela Agudelo-Botero Adolfo Martinez-Valle Bright Opoku Ahinkorah Aqeel Ahmad Sajjad Ahmad Sohail Ahmad Tauseef Ahmad Ali Ahmadi Siamak Sabour Keivan Ahmadi Sanjay Basu Sepideh Ahmadi Ali Ahmed Shaun Wen Huey Lee Ayman Ahmed Haroon Ahmed Jivan Qasim Ahmed Gahin Abdulraheem Tayib Yahya Yahya Luai A. Ahmed Iffat Elbarazi Syed Mahboob Shah Janardhana P. Aithala Marjan Ajami Budi Aji Hossein Akbarialiabad Yibeltal Akelew Meisam Akhlaghdoust Elham Jamshidi Addis Aklilu Azene Tesfaye Melat Woldemariam Maxwell Ak CRONICAS Center of Excellence in Chronic Diseases Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia Lima Peru School of Medicine Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia Lima Peru Sydney School of Public Health Faculty of Medicine and Health University of Sydney Sydney NSW Australia Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine London UK Division of Tropical and Humanitarian Medicine University of Geneva Geneva Switzerland Department of Cardiovascular Endocrine-metabolic Diseases and Aging Istituto Superiore di Sanità Rome Italy Division of Endocrinology Diabetology Nutrition and Therapeutic Patient Education Department of Medicine Geneva University Hospitals Geneva Switzerland Department of Medicine and Department of Health Research Evidence and Impact McMaster University Hamilton ON Canada Research Institute of St. Joe’s Hamilton ON Canada Population Health Research Institute Hamilton Canada Geneva University Hospitals Geneva Switzerland Faculty of Medicine Mashhad University of Medical Sciences Mashhad Iran Department of Nutrition and Dietetics Jimma University Jimma Ethiopia Anesthesiology Department Dilla University Addis Ababa Ethiopia Department of Juridical and Economic Studies La Sapienza University Rome Italy Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Social Determinants of Health Research Center Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Brigham and Women’s Hospital Harvard University Boston MA USA Students’ Scientific Research Center (SSRC) Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran School of Medicine Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran School of Medicine Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Institute Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Chapter of Addiction Medicine University of Sydney Sydney NSW Australia Advanced Diagnostic and Intervent

Chronic care manages long-term, progressive conditions, while acute care addresses short-term conditions. Chronic conditions increasingly strain health systems, which are often unprepared for these demands. This study examines the burden of conditions requiring acute versus chronic care, including sequelae. Conditions and sequelae from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019 were classified into acute or chronic care categories. Data were analysed by age, sex, and socio-demographic index, presenting total numbers and contributions to burden metrics such as Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), Years Lived with Disability (YLD), and Years of Life Lost (YLL). Approximately 68% of DALYs were attributed to chronic care, while 27% were due to acute care. Chronic care needs increased with age, representing 86% of YLDs and 71% of YLLs, and accounting for 93% of YLDs from sequelae. These findings highlight that chronic care needs far exceed acute care needs globally, necessitating health systems to adapt accordingly. © 2025. The Author(s).

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Sliding mode control for uncertain new chaotic dynamical system

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CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS 2009年第4期41卷 1857-1862页

作者： dadras, Sara Momeni, Hamid Reza Majd, vahid Johari Tarbiat Modares Univ Dept Elect Engn Automat & Instruments Lab Tehran Iran Tarbiat Modares Univ Dept Elect Engn Intelligent Control Syst Lab Tehran Iran

This paper proposes a sliding mode control strategy for a new uncertain chaotic dynamical system (Liu system). Using the sliding mode control technique and based on Lyapunov stability theory, a sliding surface is determined and a robust control law is established which stabilizes the uncertain chaotic system. The chattering phenomenon, which is inherent in conventional switching-type sliding controllers, due to this control law is very small and is clamped quickly. An illustrative simulation result is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed sliding mode control design. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： SLIDING mode control CHAOS theory DYNAMICS LYAPUNOV stability ROBUST control SWITCHING theory SIMULATION methods & models

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Control of Uncertain Butterfly-Shaped Chaotic System: Sliding-mode Approach

Control of Uncertain Butterfly-Shaped Chaotic System: Slidin...

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International Conference on Control, Automation and Systems

作者： dadras, Sara Momeni, Hamid Reza Majd, vahid Johari Tarbiat Modares Univ Dept Elect Engn Tehran Iran

ISBN: (纸本)9788995003893

A sliding mode control scheme for an uncertain Butterfly-shaped chaotic dynamical system is proposes in this paper. A sliding surface is determined according to the sliding mode control technique and the control law is established. Stability of the sliding control law is determined using Lyapunov stability theory. The chattering phenomenon, which deteriorates the system performance and may cause unforeseen instabilities, is attenuated due to this control law. The effectiveness of the presented sliding mode control design is confirmed through numerical simulations.

关键词： Chaos system Sliding mode control Chattering phenomenon Lyapunov stability

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Fuzzy Surface-Based Control for Uncertain Unified Chaotic Systems

Fuzzy Surface-Based Control for Uncertain Unified Chaotic Sy...

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International Conference on Control, Automation and Systems

作者： dadras, Sara Momeni, Hamid Reza Majd, vahid Johari Tarbiat Modares Univ Dept Elect Engn Tehran Iran

ISBN: (纸本)9788995003893

This paper proposes a fuzzy sliding mode control strategy for an uncertain unified chaotic system with input nonlinearity. Using the sliding mode control technique, a sliding surface is determined and the control law is established. A fuzzy system is used instead of sign function in the sliding mode control to reduce the chattering phenomenon on the sliding surface. Based on Lyapunov stability theory, stability of the fuzzy sliding control law is determined. Chattering in the system with nonlinearity input is also damped due to this control law. The illustrative simulation results are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed fuzzy sliding mode control design.

关键词： Chaos system Sliding mode control Fuzzy control Chattering phenomenon

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Fuzzy surface-based control for uncertain unified chaotic systems

Fuzzy surface-based control for uncertain unified chaotic sy...

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International Conference on Control, Automation and Systems ( ICCAS)

作者： Sara dadras Hamid Reza Momeni vahid Johari Majd Department of Electrical Engineering Tarbiat Modares University of Technology Tehran Iran

关键词： Fuzzy control Fuzzy systems Control systems Chaos Sliding mode control Chaotic communication Nonlinear control systems Fuzzy logic Uncertainty Automatic control

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Control of uncertain butterfly-shaped chaotic system: Sliding-mode approach

Control of uncertain butterfly-shaped chaotic system: Slidin...

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International Conference on Control, Automation and Systems ( ICCAS)

作者： Sara dadras Hamid Reza Momeni vahid Johari Majd Department of Electrical Engineering Tarbiat Modares University of Technology Tehran Iran

A sliding mode control scheme for an uncertain butterfly-shaped chaotic dynamical system is proposes in this paper. A sliding surface is determined according to the sliding mode control technique and the control law is established. Stability of the sliding control law is determined using Lyapunov stability theory. The chattering phenomenon, which deteriorates the system performance and may cause unforeseen instabilities, is attenuated due to this control law. The effectiveness of the presented sliding mode control design is confirmed through numerical simulations.

关键词： Sliding mode control Control systems Chaos Nonlinear control systems Uncertainty Automatic control Lyapunov method Systems engineering and theory Adaptive control Nonlinear dynamical systems

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