随着数字化转型的加速,数字经济已成为推动中国经济高质量发展的重要引擎。然而,不同区域之间数字经济的发展水平存在显著差异,对区域间差距及其演变规律的研究具有重要意义。本研究基于2000年至2022年中国八大经济区的数字经济指数数据,利用随机森林模型对全国数字经济指数进行动态预测,并分析区域间的数字经济差异及其成因。研究结果表明,未来五年(2025~2029年)全国数字经济指数将保持稳步增长。区域分析显示,东部沿海经济区的数字经济指数始终领先,大西北和黄河中游经济区则相对较低但增长势头良好。基于研究结果,本研究提出了加强中西部地区政策支持、优化数字基础设施建设、推动区域协同发展以及激发内生动力等政策建议,以促进区域间数字经济的均衡发展。本研究为理解中国数字经济发展的总体趋势与区域特征提供了重要参考,也为优化数字经济政策制定和实现高质量发展提供了科学依据。With the acceleration of digital transformation, the digital economy has become an important engine to promote the high-quality development of China’s economy. However, there are significant differences in the development level of digital economy among different regions, and it is of great significance to study the inter-regional gap and its evolution pattern. Based on the digital economy index data of China’s eight economic regions from 2000 to 2022, this study uses the Random Forest Model to dynamically forecast the national digital economy index and analyze the inter-regional digital economy differences and their causes. The results show that the national digital economy index will maintain a steady growth in the next five years (2025~2029). Regional analyses show that the Eastern Coastal Economic Zone consistently leads the Digital Economy Index, while the Great Northwest and Middle Yellow River Economic Zones have relatively low but good growth momentum. Based on the findings, this study proposes policy recommendations such as strengthening policy support in the central and western regions, optimizing digital infrastructure construction, promoting regional synergistic development, and stimulating endogenous dynamics, in order to promote balanced development of the digital economy among regions. This study provides an important reference for understanding the general trend and regional characteristics of China’s digital economy development, as well as a scientific basis for optimizing digital economy policymaking and achieving high-quality development.
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