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38th Youth Academic Annual Conference of Chinese Association of Automation, YAC 2023

作者： Zhou, Chen An, Baoran Huang, Weijian Yu, Bing Institute of Computer Application China Academy of Engineering Physics MianYang621900 China

ISBN: (纸本)9798350303636

The autonomous decision-making problem in the mixed process of medium-range and close-range confrontation stages of agents is studied in this paper, utilizing reinforcement learning theory. The complexity and intensity of the environment resulting from the integration of information technology and system-of-systems (SoS) support in the agent confrontation scenario, as well as the oversimplification of scenarios in traditional research on autonomous decision-making of agents, are taken into account. Firstly, a simulation platform is constructed based on the agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS). Then, the state space, action space, and reward function are designed to adapt to the multi-stage confrontation scenario for agents. Finally, an autonomous decision-making method based on Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) algorithm for agent confrontation is proposed. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed decision-making algorithm can learn reasonable confrontation tactics in multi-stage confrontation scenarios, verifying the feasibility of studying the problem based on the above modeling and simulation framework. © 2023 IEEE.

关键词： agent-based modeling and simulation autonomous decision-making proximal policy optimization reinforcement learning

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agent-based risk modeling of domino effects in urban LNG stations

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JOURNAL OF LOSS PREVENTION IN THE PROCESS INDUSTRIES 2024年 89卷

作者： Zhang, Quan Wu, Jiansong Bai, Yiping Zhang, Chao Wang, Jingjing Qin, Tingxin China Univ Min & Technol Sch Emergency Management & Safety Engn Beijing Peoples R China China Natl Inst Standardizat Beijing 100191 Peoples R China Beijing Acad Sci & Technol Beijing 100089 Peoples R China

As the transfer hub between natural gas and users, urban LNG stations (ULSs) are the important link of the whole LNG industry chain. Due to special geographical location and various process equipment, potential risks in ULSs, especially domino effect accidents, usually lead to catastrophic consequences and social impacts. In this study, a dynamic risk assessment model for analyzing domino effects in urban LNG stations (DRADL) based on agent modelling and simulation is proposed. Tanks and tank cars as well as vaporizers and boilers in ULSs are modeled. A set of physical process and effect models are employed as the simulation process in this paper. Considering the lightweight nature and narrow flammability limit of LNG vapor cloud, a cyclic process is applied to judge the consequences of vapor cloud dispersion, which could avoid overestimating the results. A real urban LNG station is taken as a case study for modeling its potential domino effect risk. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and the advantages of the proposed ABMS approach for LNG dynamic risk assessment. The proposed DRADL model takes into account the combined effects of explosion and fire and LNG characteristics, which can provide guidance for risk management and rescue operation of domino effect accidents in urban LNG stations.

关键词： Urban LNG stations Domino effect accidents Dynamic risk assessment agent-based modeling and simulation Vapor cloud dispersion

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Engineering systems analysis of mobility in Odawara city: New transportation services impacts on community engagement

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SYSTEMS ENGINEERING 2024年第3期27卷 499-519页

作者： Kimura, Keiji Moser, Bryan R. MIT Syst Design & Management Cambridge MA 02139 USA

Local cities in Japan are struggling with aging and decreasing populations. Elderly people and parents with young children are uniquely challenged when accessing public transportation, a key to increasing their community engagement and improving local cities' sustainability. This research investigates the introduction of new transportation modes and fares on community engagement of both elderly people and parents of young children. An urban systems model which integrates mobility and civic functions is evaluated by agent-based simulation to analyze various policies' impacts on community engagement and financial performance. The model is applied to Odawara City, a typical local city of nearly 200,000 people in Japan. For this case study, two policies which strongly subsidize a community bus and partially subsidize a door-to-door van were predicted to generate 10% or greater engagement for the elderly without a financial loss compared to the current baseline case. More specifically, community engagement of elderly people and parents with young children are predicted to increase by 11% with positive (0.25 M yen) net present value per person when the fare of community buses is 100 yen and that of door-to-door vans is 300 yen. However, no synergistic effect driven by policies favoring elderly people and those favoring parents is found. Still, the measures to support elderly people's transportation accessibility do not harm the parents' behavior but rather support their daily activities. The method is demonstrated to be useful for designing new mobility policy in light of a specific population with demographic residential distribution and existing transportation network.

关键词： agent-based modeling and simulation aging society community engagement public transportation sustainability

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Towards agent-based simulation of the Parallel Trading Market of Pharmaceuticals 20

Towards Agent-based Simulation of the Parallel Trading Marke...

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20th IEEE Int Symposium on Parallel and Distributed Processing with Applicat / 15th IEEE Int Conf on Social Comp and Networking / 12th IEEE Int Conf on Big Data and Cloud Comp / 12th IEEE Int Conf on Sustainable Comp and Commun

作者： Jamali, Ruhollah Lazarova-Molnar, Sanja Univ Southern Denmark Maersk Mc Kinney Moller Inst DK-5230 Odense Denmark Karlsruhe Inst Technol Inst AIFB D-76131 Karlsruhe Germany

ISBN: (纸本)9781665464970

Pharmaceutical parallel trade is a legal trade in European countries, where traders can buy medicinal products in one country and sell them in other countries to make a profit. In the pharmaceutical parallel trade market, players such as manufacturers, wholesalers, parallel traders, pharmacies, and hospitals are involved. Studying and analyzing this market is of significant interest to economists and players involved. agent-based modeling offers a robust algorithmic framework to analyze macroeconomic phenomena through micro-founded models. As an initial step in using agent-based modeling for the parallel trade of pharmaceuticals, we consider a simplified pharmaceutical trading market inspired by available game theory models. In this paper, we developed and elaborated the implementation of an agent-based model for the pharmaceutical trade market and employed it to run multiple scenarios that are impossible to analyze through game-theoretic models. Subsequently, we demonstrated how an agent-based model could be utilized to analyze the market from an economic perspective and how players in this market can recruit this model in their business decisions.

关键词： agent-based modeling and simulation Pharmaceutical parallel trade modeling and simulation

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Processionary Caterpillars at the Edge of Complexity

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ARTIFICIAL LIFE 2024年第2期30卷 171-192页

作者： Collard, Philippe Cote Azur Univ I3S Lab Nice France

This article deals with individuals moving in procession in real and artificial societies. A procession is a minimal form of society in which individual behavior is to go in a given direction and the organization is structured by the knowledge of the one ahead. This simple form of grouping is common in the living world, and, among humans, procession is a very circumscribed social activity whose origins are certainly very remote. This type of organization falls under microsociology, where the focus is on the study of direct interactions between individuals within small groups. In this article, we focus on the particular case of pine tree processionary caterpillars (Thaumetopoea pityocampa). In the first part, we propose a formal definition of the concept of procession and compare field experiments conducted by entomologists with agent-based simulations to study real caterpillars' processionaries as they are. In the second part, we explore the life of caterpillars as they could be. First, by extending the model beyond reality, we can explain why real processionary caterpillars behave as they do. Then we report on field experiments on the behavior of real caterpillars artificially forced to follow a circular procession;these experiments confirm that each caterpillar can either be the leader of the procession or follow the one in front of it. In the third part, by allowing variations in the speed of movement on an artificial circular procession, computational simulations allow us to observe the emergence of unexpected mobile spatial structures built from regular polygonal shapes where chaotic movements and well-ordered forms are intimately linked. This confirms once again that simple rules can have complex consequences.

关键词： Complex systems entomology agent-based modeling and simulation procession chaos

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A simulation-based STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF TRACKING PERFORMANCE ON UTM FLIGHT SAFETY

A SIMULATION-BASED STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF TRACKING PERFORMAN...

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Integrated Communication, Navigation and Surveillance Conference (ICNS)

作者： Dai, Wei Quek, Zhi Hao Low, Kin Huat Nanyang Technol Univ Sch Mech & Aerosp Engn Singapore Singapore Nanyang Technol Univ Air Traff Management Res Inst Singapore Singapore

ISBN: (纸本)9781665484190

Benefiting from the scientific achievements in recent years, autonomous unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are rapidly maturing for use in various missions. The attempt to deploy UAS as an extension of the transportation system draws growing attention. One of the key challenges of deploying UAS traffic is to guarantee the safety of UAS flights, which becomes a focus of related research. The tracking system provides the location of airborne flights to support various UAS traffic management (UTM) technologies. Therefore the standardization of tracking system performance is crucial. In this study, a simulation-based study is carried out to analyze the impact of tracking performance on the safety of UTM flights. The indicators of the tracking system are reviewed and summarized. Flight safety is formulated as the probability of an accident, which leads to a design of a pair-wise aircraft encounter scenario. A UTM simulator is established to enable aircraft trajectories generation. Fast-time Monte Carlo simulations are performed with operational uncertainties implemented, which estimates the probability of safety violations. The results of sensitivity analysis on tracking performance indicators show that the sizing of the safety protection boundary affects the performance of the tracking system. In addition, a larger latency of tracking leads to an increase in the lag-time between violation and detection, which potentially affects successful deconfliction.

关键词： Unmanned aircraft systems Traffic Management (UTM) Drones Air Traffic Management (ATM) flight safety agent-based modeling and simulation Monte Carlo simulation Tracking Performance

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Interactions between the individual and the group level in organizations: The case of learning and group turnover

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CENTRAL EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH 2023年第4期31卷 1087-1128页

作者： Blanco-Fernandez, Dario Leitner, Stephan Rausch, Alexandra Univ Klagenfurt Digital Age Res Ctr Univ Str 65-67 A-9020 Klagenfurt Austria Univ Klagenfurt Dept Management Control & Strateg Management Univ Str 65-67 A-9020 Klagenfurt Austria

Previous research on organizations often focuses on either the individual, team, or organizational level. There is a lack of multidimensional research on emergent phenomena and interactions between the mechanisms at different levels. This paper takes a multifaceted perspective on individual learning and autonomous group formation. To analyze interactions between the two levels, we introduce an agent-based model that captures an organization with a population of heterogeneous agents who learn and are limited in their rationality. To solve a task, agents form a group which experiences turnover from time to time, i.e., its composition changes periodically. We explore organizations that promote learning and changes in group composition either simultaneously or sequentially and analyze the interactions between the activities and the effects on performance. We observe underproportional interactions when tasks are interdependent and show that pushing learning and group turnover too far might backfire and decrease performance significantly.

关键词： agent-based modeling and simulation Dynamic capabilities Multi-level research Group composition Interaction effect NK framework

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Groups, governance, and greed: the ACCESS world model

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COMPUTATIONAL AND MATHEMATICAL ORGANIZATION THEORY 2023年第1期29卷 52-83页

作者： Rager, Scott Leung, Alice Pinegar, Shannon Mangels, Jennifer Poole, Marshall Scott Contractor, Noshir Raytheon BBN Technol 10 Moulton St Cambridge MA 02138 USA Miami Univ Oxford OH 45056 USA CUNY Baruch Coll New York NY 10010 USA CUNY Grad Ctr New York NY 10010 USA Univ Illinois Urbana IL 61801 USA Northwestern Univ Evanston IL 60208 USA

ACCESS-the agent-based Causal simulator with Cognitive, Environmental, and Social System factors-is an agent-based simulation of an alternate world that is designed to test social science methodologies' abilities to explain, predict, and prescribe policies for complex social systems. The ACCESS world model includes behaviors based on behavioral and cognitive sciences within and across individuals, groups, and the society to create a multi-level model that exhibits emergent phenomena. In this paper, we detail the logic underlying our conceptualization of the entities (individuals, groups, and the world) and their interactions. We also provide details on how we used the ACCESS model to challenge and score social scientist teams' abilities to explain, predict, and prescribe in the artificial world as part of the DARPA Ground Truth program.

关键词： agent-based modeling and simulation complex social systems emergent behavior

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Development of human-in-the-loop experiment system to extract evacuation behavioral features: A case of evacuees in nuclear emergencies

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NUCLEAR ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY 2023年第6期55卷 2246-2255页

作者： Park, Younghee Park, Soohyung Kim, Jeongsik Kim, Byoung-jik Kim, Namhun Ulsan Natl Inst Sci & Technol Grad Sch Artificial Intelligence Ulsan 44919 South Korea Ulsan Natl Inst Sci & Technol Dept Mech Engn Ulsan 44919 South Korea Elect & Telecommun Res Inst Daejeon 34129 South Korea Korea Inst Nucl Safety Daejeon 34142 South Korea

Evacuation time estimation (ETE) is crucial for the effective implementation of resident protection measures as well as planning, owing to its applicability to nuclear emergencies. However, as confirmed in the Fukushima case, the ETE performed by nuclear operators does not reflect behavioral features, exposing thus, gaps that are likely to appear in real-world situations. Existing research methods including surveys and interviews have limitations in extracting highly feasible behavioral features. To overcome these limitations, we propose a VR-based immersive experiment system. The VR system realistically simulates nuclear emergencies by structuring existing disasters and human decision pro- cesses in response to the disasters. Evacuation behavioral features were quantitatively extracted through the proposed experiment system, and this system was systematically verified by statistical analysis and a comparative study of experimental results based on previous research. In addition, as part of future work, an application method that can simulate multi-level evacuation dynamics was proposed. The proposed experiment system is significant in presenting an innovative methodology for quantitatively extracting human behavioral features that have not been comprehensively studied in evacuation. It is expected that more realistic evacuation behavioral features can be collected through additional experiments and studies of various evacuation factors in the future.(c) 2023 Korean Nuclear Society, Published by Elsevier Korea LLC. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://***/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

关键词： Evacuation behavioral features Nuclear emergency Human-in-the-loop experiment system Pre-evacuation VR agent-based modeling and simulation

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Active Sensing for Epidemic State Estimation Using ABM-Guided Machine Learning 24th

Active Sensing for Epidemic State Estimation Using ABM-Guide...

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24th International Workshop on Multi-agent-based simulation (MABS)

作者： Saliba, Sami Dadgostari, Faraz Hoops, Stefan Mortveit, Henning S. Swarup, Samarth Univ Virginia Charlottesville VA 22904 USA Montana State Univ Bozeman MT USA

ISBN: (纸本)9783031610332;9783031610349

During an epidemic, it can be difficult to get an estimate of the actual number of people infected at any given time. This is due to multiple reasons, including some cases being asymptomatic and sick people not seeking healthcare for mild symptoms, among others. Large scale random sampling of the population for testing can be expensive, especially in the early stages of an epidemic, when tests are scarce. Here we show how an adaptive prevalence testing method can be developed to obtain a good estimate of the disease burden by learning to intelligently allocate a small number of tests for random testing of the population. Our approach uses a combination of an agent-based simulation and deep learning in an active sensing paradigm. We show that it is possible to get a good state estimate with relatively minimal prevalence testing, and that the trained system adapts quickly and performs well even if the disease parameters change.

关键词： Computational Epidemiology Neural Networks agent-based modeling and simulation Active Sensing

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