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Development of an agent-based model to understand the diffusion of value management in construction projects as a sustainability tool

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ALEXANDRIA ENGINEERING JOURNAL 2022年第1期61卷 747-761页

作者： Thneibat, Mujahed Thneibat, Motasem Al-Shattarat, Basiem Al-kroom, Hussein Univ Jordan Sch Engn Dept Civil Engn Amman Jordan Univ Jordan Sch Business Dept Business Management Amman Jordan Prince Sultan Univ Sch Business Riyadh Saudi Arabia

Despite the rich literature about VM in construction, questions about how practitioners decide to adopt VM and what motivates adoption remain unanswered. The paper presents an agent-based model as a microsimulation tool, where contractors and policy makers interact in a shared environment, to help understand the adoption of value management (VM) based on a bottom-up approach, considering contractors' heterogeneity in terms of the perceived benefits of VM, social influence, and innovativeness. By allowing for various diffusion curves to be evaluated, our study conclude that mass media, and incentives will increase the uptake of VM. (C) 2021 THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University.

关键词： Value management agent-based model Diffusion Social interaction Microsimulation Construction management Sustainability

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An agent-based model to study compliance with safety regulations at an airline ground service organization

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APPLIED INTELLIGENCE 2016年第3期45卷 881-903页

作者： Sharpanskykh, Alexei Haest, Rob Delft Univ Technol Fac Aerosp Engn NL-2629 HS Delft Netherlands

According to aviation statistics, most of the safety occurrences happen not in the air, but on the ground. Management of airlines and airports often consider failures to comply with safety-related regulations as important contributors to safety occurrences. To address the issue of compliance, approaches based on external regulation of the employees' behavior were proposed. Unfortunately, an externally imposed control is often not internalized by employees and has a short-term effect on their performance. To achieve a long-term effect, employees need to be internally motivated to adhere to regulations. To understand the role of motivation for compliance in ground service organizations, in this paper a formal agent-based model is proposed based on theories from social science with a wide empirical support. The model incorporates cognitive, social, and organizational aspects. The model was simulated and partially validated by a case study performed at a real airline ground service organization. The model was able to reproduce behavioral patterns related to compliance of the platform employees in this study. based on the model, global sensitivity analysis was performed. The results of this analysis together with the simulation results were used to generate recommendations to improve compliance.

关键词： Compliance agent-based model Motivation Cognitive models Social contagion

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Optimization of an agent-based model for continuous trading energy market

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ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING 2024年第4期106卷 4003-4017页

作者： Alberizzi, A. Di Barba, P. Mognaschi, M. E. Zani, A. Pavia Italy

The high penetration of intermittence resources in the energy market accelerates significantly the decarbonization process, but, on the other hand, the electrical system has to face the problem of unbalances. Renewable energies sources are hard to precisely forecast, and power plants are not able to predict the amount of energy that they can provide far from the real-time delivery. In this frame, the intraday market gets a fundamental role allowing agents to adjust their position close to the delivery time. In this work, we suggest an agent-based model of intraday market combined with genetics algorithms to understand what the best strategy could be adopted by players in order to optimize the market efficiency in terms of welfare and unsold quantity. In the first part, we show the effect on the market prices of different scenarios in which players aim at maximizing their revenues and selling/buying all their volumes. In the second part, we show the effect of a particular genetic algorithm on the model, focusing on how agents can adapt their strategy to enhance the market efficiency. Comparative analyses are also performed to investigate how the welfare of the system increases as well as the unsold quantity decrease when genetic algorithm is introduced.

关键词： Continuous intraday market agent-based model Genetics algorithm Power system

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Using National Survey Respondents as Consumers in an agent-based model of Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle Adoption

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IEEE ACCESS 2015年 3卷 457-468页

作者： Eppstein, Margaret J. Rizzo, Donna M. Lee, Brian H. Y. Krupa, Joseph S. Manukyan, Narine Univ Vermont Dept Comp Sci Burlington VT 05405 USA Univ Vermont Sch Engn Burlington VT 05405 USA Roberge Associates Coastal Engn LLC Stratford CT 06615 USA Faraday Inc Burlington VT 05401 USA

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) offer the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, if vehicle consumers are willing to adopt this new technology. Consequently, there is much interest in exploring PHEV market penetration models. In prior work, we developed an agent-based model (ABM) of potential PHEV consumer adoption that incorporated several spatial, social, and media influences to identify nonlinear interactions among potential leverage points that may impact PHEV market penetration. In developing that model, the need for additional data to properly inform both the decision making rules and agent initialization became apparent. To address these issues, we recently conducted and analyzed an extensive consumer survey;in this paper, we modify the ABM to reflect the survey findings. A unique aspect is a one-to-one correspondence between agents in the model and survey respondents, and thus yielding distributions and cross correlations in agent attributes that accurately reflect the survey population. We also implement a used-PHEV market, and allow agents to purchase new or used compact PHEVs or vehicles of their current type. based on our prior survey response analysis, our modified model includes a PHEV-technology threshold component, a multinomial logistic prediction of willingness to consider a compact PHEV based on dynamically changing attitudes, and agent-specific delay discounting functions that predict the amount agents are willing to pay up front for greater fuel savings. We thus independently account for agents' discomfort with the new PHEV technology, their desire to drive a more environmentally friendly vehicle, and their willingness to pay a higher sticker price for a PHEV. Results of ten survey-based ABM scenarios are reported with implications for policy-makers and manufacturers. We believe close integration of the design of consumer surveys and the development of ABMs is a key step in developing useful decision-support models;

关键词： Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) agent-based model market penetration electric vehicle adoption vehicle choice simulation vehicle choice survey

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Investigating the evolving context of an unstable approach in aviation from mental model disconnects with an agent-based model

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RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY 2020年 193卷

作者： Lai, Hsueh-Yi Chen, Chun-Hsien Zheng, Pai Khoo, Li Pheng Nanyang Technol Univ Sch Mech & Aerosp Engn 50 Nanyang Ave Singapore 639798 Singapore

Unstable approach is an adverse aviation event, and it is strongly related to the interaction between pilots and air traffic controllers (ATCOs). Mental model disconnects among team members can be a major cause of possible interaction conflicts and defective team cognition. Therefore, to study the negative effects of various mental model disconnects, a framework of evolving team cognition (FETC) is proposed to examine the evolving context of an accident. An agent-based model (ABM) is developed to simulate how mental model disconnects are involved in evolving landing scenarios. The results of a simulation conducted with the ABM indicate that mental model disconnects occur more frequently as an aircraft approaches the terminal area. For landing scenarios in the outer area between 100 and 50 nautical miles (Nm), task-related mental model disconnects occur more frequently, causing incompatibility between parties. The incompatibility reveals the necessity of extra coordination to prevent the potential occurrence of system errors. As for the scenarios around the terminal area (30-15 Nm), the team-related mental model disconnects prevail, leading to passive information dissemination regarding changing conditions and late initiation of urgent coordination. The combination of these factors causes a team to miss the window for preventing an adverse event.

关键词： agent-based model Landing safety Mental model disconnects Shared mental model Team cognition

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Post-earthquake modelling of transportation networks using an agent-based model

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STRUCTURE AND INFRASTRUCTURE ENGINEERING 2020年第11期16卷 1578-1592页

作者： Feng, Kairui Li, Quanwang Ellingwood, Bruce R. Tsinghua Univ Dept Civil Engn Beijing Peoples R China Tsinghua Univ TNList Beijing Peoples R China Colorado State Univ Dept Civil & Environm Engn Ft Collins CO 80523 USA

Surface transportation systems are an essential part of urban transportation infrastructure and are susceptible to damage from earthquakes. This damage, along with the lack of prior warning of earthquake events, may lead to severe and unexpected disruption of normal traffic patterns, which may seriously impair post-disaster response. Accordingly, it is important to understand the performance of urban transportation systems immediately following an earthquake, to evaluate their capability to support emergency response, e.g., the movement of firefighters, search and rescue teams and medical personnel, and the transportation of injured people to emergency treatment facilities. For this purpose, a scenario-based methodology is developed to model the performance of a transportation network immediately following an earthquake using an agent-based model. The model accounts for the abrupt changes in destination, irrational behavior of drivers in the chaotic aftermath of a severe earthquake, unavailability of traffic information and impairment in traffic capacity due to bridge damage and building debris. An illustration using the road network of Tangshan City, China shows that the method can capture the traffic flow characteristics immediately after an earthquake and can determine the capability of the transportation network to transfer injured people to hospitals. Thus, it can provide rational support for evaluating the performance of the surface transportation system under immediate post-disaster emergency conditions.

关键词： Transportation network real-time traffic modelling earthquake agent-based model post-earthquake response

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An agent-based model of vibration-induced intimal hyperplasia

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BIOMECHANICS AND modelING IN MECHANOBIOLOGY 2022年第5期21卷 1457-1481页

作者： Reda, Maha Noel, Christophe Settembre, Nicla Chambert, Jerome Lejeune, Arnaud Rolin, Gwenael Jacquet, Emmanuelle Inst Natl Rech & Securite INRS Opt Lab Vibrat Electromagnetism Vandoeuvre Les Nancy France Univ Bourgogne Franche Comte FEMTO ST Inst UFC CNRS ENSMM UTBM Dept Appl Mech Besancon France Univ Lorraine Nancy Univ Hosp Dept Vasc Surg Vandoeuvre Les Nancy France Ctr Hosp Reg Univ Besancon Inserm CIC 1431 Inserm Ctr Invest Clin 1431 Besancon France Univ Bourgogne Franche Comte Etab Francais Sang Bourgogne Franche Comte RIGHT Interact Greffon Hote Tumeur Ingn Cellulair Inserm UMR1098 Besancon France

Acute exposure to hand-arm transmitted vibrations (HAVs) may decrease the wall shear stress (WSS) exerted by the blood flow on the arterial endothelium. In the case of chronic exposure to HAVs, these WSS changes can lead to arterial growth and remodeling potentially induced by an intimal hyperplasia phenomenon. Accordingly, we implemented an agent-based model (ABM) that captures the hemodynamics-driven and mechanoregulated cellular mechanisms involved in vibrationinduced intimal hyperplasia. Our ABM was combined with flow loop experiments that investigated the WSS-modulated secretion of the platelet-derived growth factor BB (PDGF-BB) by the endothelial cells. The ABM rules parameters were then identified and calibrated using our experimental findings and literature data. The model was able to replicate the basal state (no vibration) as well as predict a 30% stenosis resulting from a chronic drop of WSS values mimicking exposure to vibration during a timeframe of 10 years. The study of the influence of different WSS-modulated phenomena on the model showed that the magnitude of stenosis largely depends on the migratory effects of PDGF-BB and the mitogenic effects of Transforming Growth Factor beta on the Smooth Muscle Cells. The results also proved that the fall in circumferential stress due to arterial layer thickening to a great extent accounts for the degradation of the Extracellular Matrix in the media.

关键词： Hand-arm vibration Intimal hyperplasia agent-based model Wall shear stress

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Multi-scale analysis of a household level agent-based model of landcover change

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JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2004年第1-2期72卷 57-72页

作者： Evans, TP Kelley, H Indiana Univ Dept Geog Bloomington IN 47405 USA Indiana Univ Ctr Study Inst Populat & Environm Change Bloomington IN 47405 USA Indiana Univ Dept Econ Bloomington IN 47405 USA

Scale issues have significant implications for the analysis of social and biophysical processes in complex systems. These same scale implications are likewise considerations for the design and application of models of landcover change. Scale issues have wide-ranging effects from the representativeness of data used to validate models to aggregation errors introduced in the model structure. This paper presents an analysis of how scale issues affect an agent-based model (ABM) of landcover change developed for a research area in the Midwest, USA. The research presented here explores how scale factors affect the design and application of agent-based landcover change models. The ABM is composed of a series of heterogeneous agents who make landuse decisions on a portfolio of cells in a raster-based programming environment. The model is calibrated using measures of fit derived from both spatial composition and spatial pattern metrics from multi-temporal landcover data interpreted from historical aerial photography. A model calibration process is used to find a best-fit set of parameter weights assigned to agents' preferences for different landuses (agriculture, pasture, timber production, and non-harvested forest). Previous research using this model has shown how a heterogeneous set of agents with differing preferences for a portfolio of landuses produces the best fit to landcover changes observed in the study area. The scale dependence of the model is explored by varying the resolution of the input data used to calibrate the model (observed landcover), ancillary datasets that affect land suitability (topography), and the resolution of the model landscape on which agents make decisions. To explore the impact of these scale relationships the model is run with input datasets constructed at the following spatial resolutions: 60, 90, 120, 150, 240, 300 and 480 in. The results show that the distribution of landuse-preference weights differs as a function of scale. In addition, w

关键词： scale land cover change agent-based model GIS

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Individual behavior and macro social properties. An agent-based model

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COMPUTATIONAL AND MATHEMATICAL ORGANIZATION THEORY 2008年第2期14卷 156-174页

作者： Boero, Riccardo Castellani, Marco Squazzoni, Flaminio Univ Brescia Dept Social Sci I-25122 Brescia Italy Univ Turin Dept Econ & Financial Studies G Prato Turin Italy

The paper aims at presenting an agent-based modeling exercise to illustrate how small differences in the cognitive properties of agents can generate very different macro social properties. We argue that it is not necessary to assume highly complicated cognitive architectures to introduce cognitive properties that matter for computational social science purposes. Our model is based on different simulation settings characterized by a gradual sophistication of behavior of agents, from simple heuristics to macro-micro feedback and other second-order properties. agents are localized in a spatial interaction context. They have an individual task but are influenced by a collective coordination problem. The simulation results show that agents can generate efficiency at a macro level particularly when socio-cognitive sophistication of their behavior increases.

关键词： agent-based model behavioral heuristics socio-cognitive properties social patterns

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Making incentive policies more effective: An agent-based model for energy-efficiency retrofit in China

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ENERGY POLICY 2019年 126卷 177-189页

作者： Liang, Xin Yu, Tao Hong, Jingke Shen, Geoffrey Qiping Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ Sch Int & Publ Affairs Shanghai Peoples R China Harbin Inst Technol Sch Civil Engn Harbin Heilongjiang Peoples R China Harbin Inst Technol Minist Educ Key Lab Struct Dynam Behav & Control Harbin Heilongjiang Peoples R China Harbin Inst Technol Minist Ind & Informat Technol Key Lab Smart Prevent & Mitigat Civil Engn Disast Harbin Heilongjiang Peoples R China Chongqing Univ Sch Construct Management & Real Estate Chongqing 400045 Peoples R China Hong Kong Polytech Univ Dept Bldg & Real Estate Hong Kong Peoples R China

The building sector is responsible for a major share of energy consumption, with the most energy being consumed during the operation stage of buildings. Energy-efficiency retrofit (EER) policies have been promoted by numerous countries. However, the effectiveness of these incentive policies has been insufficient, a main reason being the agency problem between the government and building owners. In addition, most policies ignored the diversity of buildings and building owners, resulting in a lack of reaction from owners. To address this problem, this study proposed an agent-based model for policy making on EER. The model defined the government and owners as agents and their decision-making behaviors were modeled with principal-agent theory. A platform based on the proposed model was then developed and the incentive policy was optimized under different circumstances. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model, three policy scenarios were compared on the platform, which are the policy by the proposed model, the incentive policy in Shanghai and Shenzhen, China. The results showed that the incentive policy based on the proposed model has the best performance on energy savings, returns on investment, and leverage effects. A sensitivity analysis indicated that the government should pay more attention to energy price.

关键词： Energy efficiency Retrofit agent-based model Multi-agent system Principal-agent theory

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