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bayesian modelling for the integration of spatially misaligned health and environmental data

STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT 2025年第4期39卷 1485-1499页

作者： Alahmadi, Hanan Moraga, Paula King Abdullah Univ Sci & Technol KAUST Stat Program Comp Elect & Math Sci & Engn Div Thuwal 239556900 Saudi Arabia King Saud Univ KSU Stat & Operat Res Dept Riyadh 11564 Saudi Arabia

The analyses of spatially misaligned data sets are on the rise, primarily due to advancements in data collection and merging of databases. This paper presents a flexible and fast bayesian modelling framework for the combination of data available at different spatial resolutions and from various sources. Inference is performed using INLA and SPDE, which provides a fast approach to fit latent Gaussian models proving particularly advantageous when dealing with spatial and large datasets. The bayesian modelling approach is demonstrated in a range of health and environmental settings. Specifically, a spatial model is developed to combine point and areal malaria prevalence data, and to integrate air pollution data from different sources. These examples illustrate how to manage data at disparate spatial scales to yield more precise predictions and improved estimation of associations. A spatial model is also specified to estimate the relative risk of lung cancer and assess its relationship with covariates that are misaligned with the response variable. This showcases the model's ability to effectively synthesize misaligned health outcomes and environmental exposure data. These case studies highlight the adaptability of bayesian spatial methods in overcoming the challenges posed by spatial data misalignment, thus providing valuable insights for decision-making in health and environmental fields.

关键词： bayesian modelling Spatial misalignment Gaussian random field Disease mapping Air pollution

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New Luminescence and Radiocarbon Dates for Kanem-Borno Fired-Brick Elite Sites in Kanem, Chad: bayesian Chronological modelling of Settlement Construction

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AFRICAN ARCHAEOLOGICAL REVIEW 2025年第1期42卷 1-23页

作者： Magnavita, Carlos Lindauer, Susanne Adjbane, Adoum Casimir Goethe Univ Frankfurt Frobenius Inst Frankfurt Germany Curt Engelhorn Zentrum Archaometrie Mannheim Germany Univ NDjamena Ndjamena Chad

Five fired-brick sites, tentatively attributed to the Kanem-Borno State, were test-excavated, and samples of fired bricks and wood charcoal were dated using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). Although OSL yielded larger standard deviations compared to radiocarbon dating, both methods produced chronologically significant results. In addition to confirming that the sites were constructed during Kanem-Borno's rule over Kanem, the new dates support earlier suggestions of multi-phase construction of similar nearby locations. To systematically analyze the growing body of chronometric data from Kanem, we employed bayesian chronological modelling. This method not only identifies potential stratigraphic and chronological outliers but also provides probabilistic evidence for the multi-phase development of these sites. Cinq sites de briques cuites, provisoirement attribu & eacute;s & agrave;l'& Eacute;tat du Kanem-Borno, ont fait l'objet de fouilles test et des & eacute;chantillons de briques cuites et de charbon de bois ont & eacute;t & eacute;dat & eacute;s & agrave;partir de la luminescence stimul & eacute;e optiquement (OSL) et de la spectrom & eacute;trie de masse par acc & eacute;l & eacute;rateur (AMS). Bien que la luminescence stimul & eacute;e par l'optique produise des erreurs standard plus larges que la datation par le radiocarbone, les deux m & eacute;thodes ont produit des r & eacute;sultats chronologiquement significatifs. En plus de confirmer que les sites ont & eacute;t & eacute;construits pendant le r & egrave;gne du Kanem-Borno sur le Kanem, les nouvelles dates confirment les suggestions ant & eacute;rieures d'une construction en plusieurs phases sur des sites similaires & agrave;proximit & eacute;. Pour analyser syst & eacute;matiquement l'ensemble croissant des donn & eacute;es chronom & eacute;triques du Kanem, nous avons utilis & eacute;la mod & eacute;lisation chronologique bay & eacute;sienne. Cette m & eacu

关键词： OSL Radiocarbon bayesian modelling Fired brick Kanem-Borno Lake Chad

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bayesian modelling of algal mass occurrences - using adaptive MCMC methods with a lake water quality model

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ENVIRONMENTAL modelling & SOFTWARE 2007年第7期22卷 966-977页

作者： Malve, Olli Laine, Marko Haario, Heikki Kirkkala, Teija Sarvala, Jouko Finnish Environm Inst FI-00251 Helsinki Finland Univ Helsinki Dept Math & Stat Helsinki Finland Lappeenranta Univ Technol Lappeenranta Finland Univ Turku Dept Biol SF-20500 Turku Finland

Our study aims to estimate confounded effects of nutrients and razing zooplankton (Crustacea) on phytoplankton groups-specifically on nitrogen-fixing Cyanobacteria-in the shallow, mesotrophic Lake Pyhajarvi in the northern hemisphere (Finland, northern Europe, lat. 60 degrees 54'-61 degrees 06', long. 22 degrees 09'-22 degrees 22'). Phytoplankton is modelled with a non-linear dynamic model which describes the succession of three dominant algae groups (Diatomophyceae, Chrysophyceae, nitrogen-fixing Cyanobacteria) and minor groups summed together as a function of total phosphorus, total nitrogen, temperature, global irradiance and crustacean zooplankton grazing. The model is fitted using 8 years of in situ observations and adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for estimation of model parameters. The approach offers a way to deal with noisy data and a large number of weakly identifiable parameters in a model. From our posterior simulations we calculate the lower limit for zooplankton carbon mass concentration (45 mu gC L-1) and the upper limit for total phosphorus concentration (16 mu g L-1) that satisfy with 0.95 probability our predefined water quality criteria (Cyanobacteria concentration during late summer period does not exceed the value 0.86 mg L-1). Within the observational range total phosphorus has marginal effect on Cyanobacteria compared to the zooplankton grazing effect, which is temperature-dependent. Extensive fishing efforts are needed to attain the criteria. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： lake eutrophication modelling bayesian modelling parameter identifiability adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo

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bayesian modelling the retreat of the Irish Sea Ice Stream

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JOURNAL OF QUATERNARY SCIENCE 2013年第2期28卷 200-209页

作者： Chiverrell, Richard C. Thrasher, Ian M. Thomas, Geoffrey S. P. Lang, Andreas Scourse, James D. van Landeghem, Katrien J. J. Mccarroll, Danny Clark, Chris D. Cofaigh, Colm O. Evans, David J. A. Ballantyne, Colin K. Univ Liverpool Sch Environm Sci Liverpool L69 3BX Merseyside England Bangor Univ Sch Ocean Sci Menai Bridge Gwynedd Wales Swansea Univ Dept Geog Swansea W Glam Wales Univ Sheffield Dept Geog Sheffield S10 2TN S Yorkshire England Univ Durham Dept Geog Durham England Univ St Andrews Dept Geog & Sustainable Dev St Andrews Fife Scotland

We present an 8000-year history spanning 650km of ice margin retreat for the largest marine-terminating ice stream draining the former BritishIrish Ice Sheet. bayesian modelling of the geochronological data shows the ISIS expanded 34.025.3ka, accelerating into the Celtic Sea to reach maximum limits 25.324.5ka before a collapse with rapid marginal retreat to the northern Irish Sea Basin (ISB). This retreat was rapid and driven by climatic warming, sea-level rise, mega-tidal amplitudes and reactivation of meridional circulation in the North Atlantic. The retreat, though rapid, is uneven, with the stepped retreat pattern possibly a function of the passage of the ice stream between normal and adverse ice bed gradients and changing ice stream geometry. Initially, wide calving margins and adverse slopes encouraged rapid retreat (approximate to 550m a1) that slowed (approximate to 100m a1) at the topographic constriction and bathymetric high between southern Ireland and Wales before rates increased (approximate to 200m a1) across adverse bed slopes and wider and deeper basin configuration in the northern ISB. These data point to the importance of the ice bed slope and lateral extent in predicting the longer-term (>1000 a) patterns and rates of ice-marginal retreat during phases of rapid collapse, which has implications for the modelling of projected rapid retreat of present-day ice streams. Copyright (c) 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

关键词： ice stream geochronology bayesian modelling forcing Last Glacial Maximum

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bayesian modelling of an absolute chronology for Egypt's 18th Dynasty by astrophysical and radiocarbon methods

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JOURNAL OF ARCHAEOLOGICAL SCIENCE 2013年第1期40卷 423-432页

作者： Quiles, A. Aubourg, E. Berthier, B. Delque-Kolic, E. Pierrat-Bonnefois, G. Dee, M. W. Andreu-Lanoe, G. Ramsey, C. Bronk Moreau, C. CEA Saclay Lab Mesure Carbone CEA CNRS IRD IRSN MCC 14 F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette France Univ Paris Diderot F-75013 Paris France Univ Paris Diderot APC CNRS IN2P3 CEA Irfu Obs De Paris Sorbonne Paris France Univ Paris 11 Inst Phys Nucl Orsay IN2P3 F-91406 Paris France Musee Louvre Dept Antiquites Egyptiennes Louvre F-75058 Paris 01 France Univ Oxford Res Lab Archaeol & Hist Art Oxford OX1 3QY England

Only a few astrophysical points and synchronisms listed in texts provide anchor points for the absolute chronology of Ancient Egypt. At first we will show how we can re-calculate some of these anchor points by using Sothic dating based on the arcus visionis method, and modelling lunar dates using a bayesian approach. Then, we will discuss two radiocarbon studies carried out on short-lived Egyptian materials held at the Louvre Museum that could be attributed to particular reigns or other precise periods. Using a bayesian approach, these dates were combined with the known order of succession and the lengths of reigns. Sothic and lunar dates were integrated as priors in the model. This approach has led to a new proposal for the absolute chronology of Egypt's 18th Dynasty. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Egypt's 18th Dynasty Absolute chronology bayesian modelling Sothic dating Lunar dating Radiocarbon dating Accelerator Mass Spectrometry

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bayesian modelling of daphnid responses to time-varying cadmium exposure in laboratory aquatic microcosms

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ECOTOXICOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY 2011年第4期74卷 693-702页

作者： Billoir, Elise Delhaye, Helene Clement, Bernard Delignette-Muller, Marie Laure Charles, Sandrine Univ Lyon F-69000 Lyon France Univ Lyon 1 CNRS Lab Biometrie & Biol Evolut UMR5558 F-69622 Villeurbanne France ENTPE Lab Sci Environm F-69518 Vaulx En Velin France VetAgro Sup Campus Vet Lyon F-69280 Marcy Letoile France

Experiments were carried out to test the effects of cadmium on five aquatic species in 2-L indoor freshwater/sediment microcosms. Experimental data were collected over 21 days in static conditions, i.e. the microcosms evolved without water renewal. Because of speciation, the total cadmium concentration in water decreased with time. Here we present a focus on Daphnia magna responses. For the three life history traits we considered (survival, growth and reproduction), mathematical effect models were built based on threshold stress functions involving no effect concentrations (NECs). These models took the time-varying conditions of exposure into account through a time-recurrent formalism. Within a bayesian framework, four kinds of data were fitted simultaneously (exposure, survival, growth and reproduction), using an appropriate error model for each endpoint. Hence, NECs were determined as well as their associated estimation uncertainty. Through this modelling approach, we demonstrate that thresholds for stress functions can be successfully inferred even in experimental setup more complex than standard bioassays. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

关键词： Time-varying concentration bayesian modelling No effect concentration Threshold effect model Simultaneous fitting

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bayesian modelling captures inter-individual differences in social belief computations in the putamen and insula

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CORTEX 2020年 131卷 221-236页

作者： Henco, Lara Brandi, Marie-Luise Lahnakoski, Juha M. Diaconescu, Andreea O. Mathys, Christoph Schilbach, Leonhard Max Planck Inst Psychiat Independent Max Planck Res Grp Social Neurosci Kraepelinstr 8-10 D-80804 Munich Germany Grad Sch Syst Neurosci Munich Germany Res Ctr Julich Inst Neurosci & Med Brain & Behav INM 7 Julich Germany Heinrich Heine Univ Dusseldorf Med Fac Inst Syst Neurosci Dusseldorf Germany Univ Basel Dept Psychiat UPK Basel Switzerland Univ Zurich Inst Biomed Engn Translat Neuromodeling Unit TNU Zurich Switzerland Swiss Fed Inst Technol Zurich Switzerland Univ Toronto Krembil Ctr Neuroinformat Ctr Addict & Mental Hlth CAMH Toronto ON Canada Scuola Int Super Studi Avanzati SISSA Trieste Italy Aarhus Univ Interacting Minds Ctr Aarhus Denmark Ludwig Maximilians Univ Munchen Dept Psychiat Munich Germany Max Planck Inst Psychiat Outpatient Clin Munich Germany Max Planck Inst Psychiat Day Clin Disorders Social Interact Munich Germany

Computational models of social learning and decision-making provide mechanistic tools to investigate the neural mechanisms that are involved in understanding other people. While most studies employ explicit instructions to learn from social cues, everyday life is characterized by the spontaneous use of such signals (e.g., the gaze of others) to infer on internal states such as intentions. To investigate the neural mechanisms of the impact of gaze cues on learning and decision-making, we acquired behavioural and fMRI data from 50 participants performing a probabilistic task, in which cards with varying winning probabilities had to be chosen. In addition, the task included a computer-generated face that gazed towards one of these cards providing implicit advice. Participants' individual belief trajectories were inferred using a hierarchical Gaussian filter (HGF) and used as predictors in a linear model of neuronal activation. During learning, social prediction errors were correlated with activity in inferior frontal gyrus and insula. During decision-making, the belief about the accuracy of the social cue was correlated with activity in inferior temporal gyrus, putamen and pallidum while the putamen and insula showed activity as a function of individual differences in weighting the social cue during decision-making. Our findings demonstrate that model-based fMRI can give insight into the behavioural and neural aspects of spontaneous social cue integration in learning and decision-making. They provide evidence for a mechanistic involvement of specific components of the basal ganglia in subserving these processes. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

关键词： Learning and decision-making Social inference bayesian modelling fMRI

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bayesian modelling of environmental risk: example using a small area ecological study of coronary heart disease mortality in relation to modelled outdoor nitrogen oxide levels

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STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT 2007年第5期21卷 501-509页

作者： Haining, Robert Law, Jane Maheswaran, Ravi Pearson, Tim Brindley, Paul Univ Cambridge Dept Geog Cambridge CB2 3EN England Univ Sheffield Publ Hlth GIS Unit Sheffield S Yorkshire England Univ Sheffield Dept Town & Reg Planning Sheffield S Yorkshire England

bayesian modelling of health risks in relation to environmental exposures offers advantages over conventional (non-bayesian) modelling approaches. We report an example using research into whether, after controlling for different confounders, air pollution (NOx) has a significant effect on coronary heart disease mortality, estimating the relative risk associated with different levels of exposure. We use small area data from Sheffield, England and describe how the data were assembled. We compare the results obtained using a generalized (Poisson) log-linear model with adjustment for overdispersion, with the results obtained using a hierarchical (Poisson) log-linear model with spatial random effects. Both classes of models were fitted using a bayesian approach. Including spatial random effects models both overdispersion and spatial autocorrelation effects arising as a result of analysing data from small contiguous areas. The first modelling framework has been widely used, while the second provides a more rigorous model for hypothesis testing and risk estimation when data refer to small areas. When the models are fitted controlling only for the age and sex of the populations, the generalized log-linear model shows NOx effects are significant at all levels, whereas the hierarchical log-linear model with spatial random effects shows significant effects only at higher levels. We then adjust for deprivation and smoking prevalence. Uncertainty in the estimates of smoking prevalence, arising because the data are based on samples, was accounted for through errors-in-variables modelling. NOx effects apparently are significant at the two highest levels according to both modelling frameworks.

关键词： Poisson regression bayesian modelling spatial random effects spatial autocorrelation

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bayesian modelling of Student Misconceptions in the one-digit Multiplication with Probabilistic Programming 16

Bayesian Modelling of Student Misconceptions in the one-digi...

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6th International Conference on Learning Analytics and Knowledge (LAK)

作者： Taraghi, Behnam Saranti, Anna Legenstein, Robert Ebner, Martin Graz Univ Technol Educ Technol Munzgrabenstr 35 A-8010 Graz Austria Graz Univ Technol Inst Theoret Comp Sci Inffeldgasse 16b-1 A-8010 Graz Austria

ISBN: (纸本)9781450341905

One-digit multiplication errors are one of the most extensively analysed mathematical problems. Research work primarily emphasises the use of statistics whereas learning analytics can go one step further and use machine learning techniques to model simple learning misconceptions. Probabilistic programming techniques ease the development of probabilistic graphical models (bayesian networks) and their use for prediction of student behaviour that can ultimately influence learning decision processes.

关键词： Learning Analytics bayesian modelling Probabilistic Programming One-Digit Multiplication

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Hierarchical viewpoint discovery from tweets using bayesian modelling

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EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS 2019年 116卷 430-438页

作者： Zhu, Lixing He, Yulan Zhou, Deyu Southeast Univ Sch Comp Sci & Engn Key Lab Comp Network & Informat Integrat Minist Educ Nanjing Jiangsu Peoples R China Univ Warwick Dept Comp Sci Coventry W Midlands England

When users express their stances towards a topic in social media, they might elaborate their viewpoints or reasoning. Oftentimes, viewpoints expressed by different users exhibit a hierarchical structure. Therefore, detecting this kind of hierarchical viewpoints offers a better insight to understand the public opinion. In this paper, we propose a novel bayesian model for hierarchical viewpoint discovery from tweets. Driven by the motivation that a viewpoint expressed in a tweet can be regarded as a path from the root to a leaf of a hierarchical viewpoint tree, the assignment of the relevant viewpoint topics is assumed to follow two nested Chinese restaurant processes. Moreover, opinions in text are often expressed in un-semantically decomposable multi-terms or phrases, such as 'economic recession'. Hence, a hierarchical Pitman-Yor process is employed as a prior for modelling the generation of phrases with arbitrary length. Experimental results on two Twitter corpora demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed bayesian model for hierarchical viewpoint discovery. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Natural language processing Opinion mining bayesian modelling

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