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Quantitative assessment of human error of emergency behavior for hazardous chemical spills in chemical parks

PROCESS SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION 2024年 189卷 930-949页

作者： Wang, Dongdong Yang, Guoliang Han, Jixiang Duo, Yingquan Zhou, Xiaofeng Tong, Ruipeng China Univ Min & Technol Beijing Sch Emergency Management & Safety Engn D11 Xueyuan Rd Beijing 100083 Peoples R China China Acad Safety Sci & Technol 32 Beiyuan Rd Beijing 100012 Peoples R China Minist Emergency Management Key Lab Major Hazard & Chem Ind Pk Syst Safety 32 Beiyuan Rd Beijing 100012 Peoples R China Civil Aviat Management Inst China Dept Flight Stand 3 East RdHuajiadi Beijing 100102 Peoples R China

In-depth research on human error is of great significance to improve the human reliability in the emergency rescue as well as to avoid the occurrence of secondary accidents. Therefore, the standardized process and key emergency behaviors in the emergency rescue process of hazardous chemical leakage accidents are first analyzed. Based on the cognitive reliability and error analysis method, the human error mode was sorted out, and the human error probability estimation model was established. Combining the improved Analytic Hierarchy Process and entropy weight method, a model for estimating the severity of human error was established, realizing the quantitative analysis of the human reliability of the emergency behavior. The study showed that the 21 emergency behaviors were clustered into 3 categories, with clustering 1 including 2 emergency behaviors, which have the highest level of severity, clustering 2 including 11 emergency behaviors, and clustering 3 including 8 emergency behaviors. Finally, countermeasures were proposed in four areas, including increasing the level of Common Performance Conditions and the ability to transmit information on accidents, etc. It indicates that the method can widely guide the improvement of emergency response capability in chemical parks.

关键词： Chemical parks Hazardous chemical spills Emergency behavior cognitive reliability and error analysis method Human error

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Investigating human error in Iran's copper mines using the CREAM based on human cognitive reliability analysis

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND ERGONOMICS 2022年第4期29卷 1423-1428页

作者： Taheri, Mohammad Reza Mortazavi, Seyed Bagher Asilian, Hasan Ahmadi, Omran Sogandi, Fatemeh Tarbiat Modares Univ Fac Med Sci Tehran Iran Univ Torbat Heydarieh Dept Ind Engn Torbat E Heydariyeh Razavi Khorasan Iran

Objectives Human error has been recognized as one of the top causes of most accidents in mines. This study aimed to identify and assess cognitive errors among copper miners using the cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM). methods. This cross-sectional study was carried out in one of the copper mines in Iran. First, all tasks were analyzed by hierarchical task analysis (HTA). Then cognitive errors were assessed using the CREAM. Results. With respect to the basic CREAM results in the operational units, including extraction, crushing and processing, human error probability (HEP) was obtained as 0.056, 0.0315 and 0.0177, respectively. Based on the results of the extended CREAM, the types of errors identified for all tasks in the three operational units were mainly associated with execution (53.4%), observation (40%), interpretation (5%) and planning (1.6%). Also, the cognitive errors were related to execution, monitoring, observation, communication, diagnosis, recording and planning, respectively. Conclusion. The results showed that human error is very high in the operational units of the mine. Therefore, immediate actions are needed to improve safety performance in the mine units, which determine the role of various factors in human errors and can provide the possibility of implementing more effective interventions.

关键词： human error cognitive reliability and error analysis method miner performance reliability

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Identifying Critical Factors Affecting Human error Probability in Power Plant Operations and Their Sustainability Implications

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PROCESS INTEGRATION AND OPTIMIZATION FOR SUSTAINABILITY 2024年第3期8卷 813-829页

作者： Bafandegan Emroozi, Vahideh Modares, Azam Ferdowsi Univ Mashhad Fac Econ & Adm Sci Dept Management Mashhad Iran

Human errors in power plants can have a significant impact on sustainability. Sustainability in the context of power plants involves ensuring the long-term viability of energy generation while simultaneously minimizing adverse environmental, social, and economic impacts. Human errors in the control and operation of power plants can result in energy losses, reducing the overall efficiency of the plant. This research aims to enhance organizational decision-making by identifying and evaluating key factors affecting human error probability (HEP) and their relationships in power plants. The study uses the cross-impact matrix multiplication applied to classification (MICMAC) method to identify key factors, dependencies, and interconnections influencing HEP. By recognizing and understanding these dependencies, managers can make informed decisions and implement appropriate adjustments to organizational conditions and personnel. Based on case study results, six sub-factors are identified as having the highest level of influence on HEP: the operating procedures, skills and experiences of personnel, ergonomics, the interruption of tasks, repetitiveness and simplicity of the task, and education and training plan. The insights gained from the research can be used to enhance understanding and implement effective strategies to mitigate the impact of human error, leading to improvements in sustainability within power plants.

关键词： Sustainability Human error probability Maintenance cognitive reliability and error analysis method Cross-impact matrix multiplication applied to classification

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Research on Quantitative Evaluation Model of Human error Probability of High-speed Railway Train Dispatchers 7

Research on Quantitative Evaluation Model of Human Error Pro...

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7th International Conference on Traffic Engineering and Transportation System (ICTETS)

作者： Sun, Yanhao Zhang, Tao Ding, Shuxin Li, Zhi Li, Ang China Acad Railway Sci Co Ltd Signal & Commun Res Inst Beijing Peoples R China China Acad Railway Sci Corp Ltd Ctr Natl Railway Intelligent Transportat Syst Eng Beijing Peoples R China

ISBN: (纸本)9781510674479

In order to be able to accurately assess the Human error Probability (HEP) of high-speed rail train dispatchers. A HEP quantitative evaluation model based on Improved Weighted cognitive reliability and error analysis (CREAM) was constructed, which corrected the shortcomings of traditional CREMA. Using bipolar 2-tuples as the Common Performance Condition (CPC) evaluation linguistics, the subjective and objective weights of CPC are calculated through the Analytic Hierarchy Process and the Criteria Importance Though Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC), and then the combined weighting method is used to further obtain the comprehensive weight of CPC;At the same time, the idea of group decision-making is used to reduce the subjectivity of CPC evaluation, and the weight of experts is calculated by using the adaptive dynamic weight adjustment method of grey correlation degree;on the basis of obtaining CPC and expert weights, the evaluation value of CPC is calculated. The weighted operation then obtains the Context Influence Index (CII) value;finally, the quantitative calculation of HEP is obtained by using the CII value. The model is validated by taking the high-speed train dispatcher's normal and abnormal train reception as examples. The research results show that: under normal conditions, the HEP of high-speed rail train dispatchers is 9.1586.10-5, and under abnormal conditions, the HEP of highspeed rail train dispatchers is 2.1189.10-3. Under abnormal circumstances, the human error probability of high-speed train dispatchers is more than 20 times that under normal circumstances. At the same time, compared with other methods, the model has certain advantages in terms of weight sensitivity, data utilization sufficiency, and model solution domain. The improved CREAM model can better reflect the impact of different CPCs on high-speed rail train dispatchers, and can provide a calculation method for the HEP quantification of high-speed rail train dispatchers.

关键词： High-speed railway train dispatcher Human error probability Quantitative evaluation cognitive reliability and error analysis method Bipolar 2-tuples Common performance condition Context influence index

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Human Operating Risk Assessment for Outdoor Terminal Box of Electric Power

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WIRELESS PERSONAL COMMUNICATIONS 2022年第3期126卷 2303-2319页

作者： Wang, Wenyu Dai, Zhengqing Rao, Jiahao Tian, Meng Wuhan Univ Sch Marxism Wuhan Peoples R China Wuhan Univ Elect Informat Sch Wuhan Peoples R China

The outdoor terminal box is the basic node of the power Internet of Things as an intermediate link between outdoor electrical equipment and indoor equipment, like measurement and control, protection, communication and other equipment. Terminal boxes and terminals need to be regularly checked on site, loop tests, transformations, and equipment replacement. Operator errors have become one of the main factors in outdoor terminal box accidents. In terms of human risk assessment of outdoor terminal boxes, few papers are involved. In order to correctly evaluate the influence of human factors on the failure of outdoor terminal boxes, the paper first analyzes the human behavior factors of outdoor terminal box operators, the common performance conditions of the CREAM (cognitive reliability and error analysis method) model is used to analyze the human behavior mechanism and behavior reliability factors during the operation of the terminal box. Then, the SLIM (Success Likelihood Index method) model is used to calculate the probability of human error. The proportional failure model is used to calculate the failure rate of the outdoor terminal box itself. Finally, taking a circuit breaker terminal box as an example for simulation, the probability of human error is 1.56%, the equipment failure rate is 0.84%, the risk value of the system is 10.7%, and the risk level of the system is 3. From the probabilistic perspective, it shows that human factors have a greater influence on the causes of accidents.

关键词： Risk assessment of operations on terminal box Success likelihood index method Proportional hazard model cognitive reliability and error analysis method

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New improved CREAM model for human reliability analysis using a linguistic D number-based hybrid decision making approach

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ENGINEERING APPLICATIONS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 2023年第1期120卷

作者： Shi, Hua Wang, Jing-Hui Zhang, Ling Liu, Hu-Chen Shanghai Dianji Univ Sch Mat Shanghai 201306 Peoples R China Tongji Univ Sch Econ & Management Shanghai 200092 Peoples R China Shanghai Univ Sch Management Shanghai 200444 Peoples R China

Since human errors are the critical factor contributing to accidents in safety-critical industries, human reliability analysis (HRA) becomes significant to improve the reliability of many complex engineering systems. In the real world, the assessment of human errors relies heavily on experts' knowledge and experience. Moreover, there are challenges regarding the human error probability (HEP) estimation because of state evaluation information uncertainty, multiple common performance conditions (CPCs), and the correlations between CPCs. Therefore, this paper aims to propose a new improved cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) by integrating linguistic D numbers and the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory-based analytic network process (DANP) method for the quantitative analysis of human errors. First, the linguistic D numbers are utilized to express the uncertain CPC state evaluations and the direct relations between CPCs provided by experts. Second, the DANP method is incorporated into the CREAM to determine the weights of CPCs considering their interdependencies and interactions. Then, a CPC effect index is introduced to quantify the CPCs' overall effect upon performance reliability and obtain the HEP estimation. Finally, the feasibility and practicality of the proposed CREAM model are demonstrated through a practical case of the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cargo loading process. The results show that the new improved CREAM can effectively capture the uncertain state evaluation information, better depict the interdependences between CPCs, and obtain more reasonable HEP estimation in the HRA.

关键词： Human reliability analysis cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) Linguistic D number DANP method Human error probability

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Evaluation for Parachute Operator reliability Based on Fuzzy CREAM

Evaluation for Parachute Operator Reliability Based on Fuzzy...

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2018 International Conference on Mathematics, Modeling, Simulation and Statistics Application（MMSSA2018）

作者： Zhanfeng Wang Jianbo Wang Dushu Li Wenbao Dai Qiang Zhao Airborne/Airdrop Technical Support Battalion 95829 PLA Troops

ISBN: (纸本)9781510880504

It is important to evaluate the reliability of parachute operators before implementing the airborne mission to improve the mission completion rate and ensure the safety of personnel. This paper draws on the cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM), and establishes a quantitative model of human reliability based on fuzzy CREAM for the CREAM model in which the common performance condition(CPC) describes the horizontal boundary is not obvious and the error probability interval is wide. Firstly, the CPCs of the CREAM model are modified according to the characteristics of the airborne operation, and the threshold of the performance evaluation index is clarified. Secondly, the common performance evaluation index is quantified based on the Gaussian function, and the weight of the index is assigned;Third, defuzzify the probability of error and calculate the probability of human error. The analysis of the example shows that the method considers the individual, equipment, mission, environment, organization and other factors, and has certain objectivity. It can be used for the reliability assessment of parachute operators before the mission, reducing the incidence of human error. It can also be used for reliability analysis of personnel operations in parachute system reliability assessment.

关键词： parachute human reliability analysis cognitive reliability and error analysis method fuzzy theory common performance condition

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A Literature Review on Human reliability analysis Techniques Applied for Probabilistic Risk Assessment in the Nuclear Industry

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7th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics / International Conference on Human Factors in Energy - Oil, Gas, Nuclear and Electric Power Industries

作者： Dsouza, Ninochka Lu, Lixuan Univ Ontario Inst Technol Fac Energy Syst & Nucl Sci Oshawa ON Canada

ISBN: (纸本)9783319419503;9783319419497

A literature review of a number of Human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies is carried out in this paper. The focus of the paper is on the use of an HRA method to quantify the probability of a human error that can then be plugged into the overall plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), specifically in the nuclear industry. In keeping with this criterion, the modeling techniques selected for review are Technique for Human error Rate Prediction (THERP), Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP), Cause-Based Decision Tree method (CBDTM), Human cognitive reliability/Operator reliability Experiments (HCR/ORE), Simplified Plant analysis Risk-Human (SPAR-H) reliability assessment, Justified Human error Data Information (JHEDI), cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM), A Technique for Human error analysis (ATHEANA), Nuclear Action reliability Assessment (NARA) and Human error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART). It is concluded that while no one methodology can cover all aspects of HRA due to each having their own set of limitations, a combination of certain methodologies can provide a more accurate Human error Probability (HEP) for input into the PRA.

关键词： Human reliability analysis Nuclear engineering Probabilistic risk assessment Technique for human error rate prediction Accident sequence evaluation program Cause-Based decision tree method Human cognitive reliability/operator reliability experiments Simplified plant analysis risk-human (SPAR-H) reliability assessment Justified human error data information cognitive reliability and error analysis method A technique for human error analysis Nuclear action reliability assessment

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Quantitative Human reliability analysis for Crew During Shipping Operation

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Transactions of Tianjin University 2014年第5期20卷 375-378页

作者：余建星许遵武傅明炀 State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety Tianjin University China COSCO Bulk Shipping (Group) Co Ltd.

A simplified bi-variable human error probability calculation method is developed by incorporating two common performance condition( CPC) factors, which are modified from factors employed in cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM) to take into account the characteristics of shipping operations. After the influencing factors are identified, Markov method is used to calculate the values of human reliability. The proposed method does not rely on the involvement of experts in the field of human factor nor depend on historical accidents or human error statistics. It is applied to the case of the crew on board of an ocean going dry bulk carrier. The caculated results agree with the actual case, which verifies the validity of the model.

关键词： cognitive reliability and error analysis method common performance condition human error probability shipping operation

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analysis of Human reliability in Power System Switching Operation considering Dependency of Operators

Analysis of Human Reliability in Power System Switching Oper...

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IEEE PES Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference (APPEEC)

作者： Bao, Yingkai Tang, Junxi Lu, Haibo Wang, Yue Guo, Chuangxin Yu, Zhiliang Jiang, Yongbin Zhejiang Univ Coll Elect Engn Hangzhou 310003 Zhejiang Peoples R China Fengxian Power Supply Co SMEPC Shanghai Peoples R China

ISBN: (纸本)9781479925223

The inter dependency between actions of operators is prevalent in power system switching operation, which is necessary to be considered along with restoration when performing human reliability analysis. This paper proposes a novel method of human reliability analysis to evaluate the human error probability considering the dependency between operators. Firstly, the concept of human reliability in power system and the cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) are introduced. Then, through the analysis of power system switching operation, the factors influencing dependency level are identified and the analytical model of dependence is constructed. Based on fuzzy theory and Bayesian network, a method is proposed to quantify the restoration coefficient. Combined with CREAM extension method, the proposed method can be used to evaluate the final human reliability.

关键词： Power System Switching Operation Human reliability cognitive reliability and error analysis method Dependency Between Operators Restoration Coefficient

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