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Systematic structural discrepancy assessment for computer models

PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES 2025年第2293期383卷 20240214页

作者： Goldstein, Michael Vernon, Ian Cumming, Jonathan A. Univ Durham Dept Math Sci Durham England

Model or structural discrepancy is an essential component in the analysis of computer simulators, representing the differences between the outputs of the simulator and the real-world system that the simulator seeks to represent. This discrepancy can arise from various sources such as simplifications of the model science in the simulator, choices made in our particular implementation of that science, and epistemic uncertainties such as the absence of features or science that we did not know to include or have yet to discover. In this paper, we define and distinguish two types of discrepancy: internal discrepancy that can be assessed by experiments on the simulator itself;and external discrepancy which lies outside the scope of such experiments. We present a tractable methodology and workflow for the assessment of structural discrepancy on the basis of collections of experiments applied to the computer model and illustrate our approach in the context of a simple biological *** article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification for healthcare and biological systems (Part 2)' .

关键词： emulation computer models discrepancy model inadequacy

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computer-models FOR ADJUSTMENT OF FIBEROPTIC REFRACTOMETERS FOR CONCENTRATION MEASUREMENT OF SUGAR SOLUTIONS

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computerS IN INDUSTRY 1993年第3期21卷 279-283页

作者： ONKOV, KZ KASSAMAKOV, IV PLOVDIV UNIV TECHNOL BU-4000 PLOVDIVBULGARIA ACAD SCI PLOVDIV INST APPL PHYSBU-4000 PLOVDIVBULGARIA

Problems concerning the adjustment of fiber-optic refractometers with a U-shaped fiber for concentration measurement of sugar solutions are discussed. Proposed methods are based on the application of computer models. A regression analysis has been used for the setting-up of laboratory fiber-optic refractometer. A precision better than 0.3% dry substance has been obtained. Due to the hard working conditions industrial refractometers have been adjusted with mathematical models by self-organization methods. The maximum deviation of the industrial refractometer for measurement of sugar in apple concentrate does not exceed 0.6% dry substance.

关键词： computer models SELF-ORGANIZATION METHODS FIBEROPTIC REFRACTOMETER CONCENTRATION MEASUREMENT SUGAR SOLUTIONS

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computer models and the evidence of anthropogenic climate change: An epistemology of variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis

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STUDIES IN HISTORY AND PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE 2016年第Apr.期56卷 95-102页

作者： Vezer, Martin A. Penn State Univ Earth & Environm Syst Inst Network Sustainable Climate Risk Management SCRiM University Pk PA 16802 USA

To study climate change, scientists employ computer models, which approximate target systems with various levels of skill. Given the imperfection of climate models, how do scientists use simulations to generate knowledge about the causes of observed climate change? Addressing a similar question in the context of biological modelling, Levins (1966) proposed an account grounded in robustness analysis. Recent philosophical discussions dispute the confirmatory power of robustness, raising the question of how the results of computer modelling studies contribute to the body of evidence supporting hypotheses about climate change. Expanding on Staley's (2004) distinction between evidential strength and security, and Lloyd's (2015) argument connecting variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis, I address this question with respect to recent challenges to the epistemology robustness analysis. Applying this epistemology to case studies of climate change, I argue that, despite imperfections in climate models, and epistemic constraints on variety-of-evidence reasoning and robustness analysis, this framework accounts for the strength and security of evidence supporting climatological inferences, including the finding that global warming is occurring and its primary causes are anthropogenic. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Variety of evidence Robustness computer models Epistemology Climate change Global warming

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computer-models USED TO SUPPORT CLEANUP DECISION-MAKING AT HAZARDOUS AND RADIOACTIVE-WASTE SITES

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RISK ANALYSIS 1992年第4期12卷 591-621页

作者： MOSKOWITZ, PD PARDI, R DEPHILLIPS, MP MEINHOLD, AF BROOKHAVEN NATL LAB BIOMED & ENVIRONM ASSESSMENT GRPUPTONNY 11973 USA

Massive efforts are underway to clean up hazardous and radioactive waste sites located throughout the United States. To help determine cleanup priorities, computer models are being used to characterize the source, transport, fate, and effects of hazardous chemicals and radioactive materials found at these sites. Although the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) have provided preliminary guidance to promote the use of computer models for remediation purposes, no agency has produced directed guidance on models that must be used in these efforts. As a result, model selection is currently done on an ad hoc basis. This is administratively ineffective and costly, and can also result in technically inconsistent decision-making. To identify what models are actually being used to support decision-making at hazardous and radioactive waste sites, a project jointly funded by EPA, DOE, and NRC was initiated. The purpose of this project was to: (1) identify models being used for hazardous and radioactive waste site assessment purposes;and (2) describe and classify these models. This report presents the results of this study. A mail survey was conducted to identify models in use. The survey was sent to approximately 550 persons engaged in the cleanup of hazardous and radioactive waste sites;87 individuals responded. They represented organizations including federal agencies, national laboratories, and contractor organizations. The respondents identified 127 computer models that were being used to help support cleanup decision-making. There were a few models that appeared to be used across a large number of sites (e.g., RESRAD). In contrast, the survey results also suggested that most sites were using models which were not reported in use elsewhere. Information is presented on the types of models being used and the characteristics of the models in use. Also shown is a list of models availabl

关键词： computer models CLEANUP DECISION-MAKING HAZARDOUS WASTES RADIOACTIVE WASTES

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computer models as social learning tools in participatory integrated assessment

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SUSTAINABILITY 2011年第2期9卷 297-309页

作者： de Kraker, Joop Kroeze, Carolien Kirschner, Paul Open Univ Netherlands Sch Sci NL-6401 DL Heerlen Netherlands Open Univ Netherlands Ctr Learning Sci & Technol CELSTEC NL-6401 DL Heerlen Netherlands

Participatory integrated assessment (PIA) is a structured process conducted with stakeholders to assess the environmental, economic and social dimensions of a complex issue and the impacts of policy choices. PIA may result in social learning a convergence in the stakeholders' perspectives on the problem and its solutions which creates a basis for more sustainable, collective action. This paper addresses the role of computer models used in integrated assessment in supporting social learning and discusses a selection of model-based PIA projects. We argue that models may play two important roles. First, with models the consequences of options can be explored turning the PIA process into an experiential learning cycle for the stakeholders. Second, models provide a platform and structure for stakeholders to communicate, negotiate and integrate their perspectives. However, in many PIA projects, computer models fail to play a significant supporting role in social learning. Experiences with other participatory modelling approaches indicate that a higher degree of stakeholder involvement in model development can increase the effectiveness of models as social tools. This, however, is time- and resource-intensive and difficult to scale up but insights from collaborative learning science and technology may help to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of PIA model in supporting social learning.

关键词： computer models participatory integrated assessment participatory modelling social learning

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Bayesian policy support for adaptive strategies using computer models for complex physical systems

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JOURNAL OF THE OPERATIONAL RESEARCH SOCIETY 2012年第8期63卷 1021-1033页

作者： Williamson, D. Goldstein, M. Univ Durham Sci Labs Dept Math Sci Durham DH1 3LE England

In this paper, we discuss combining expert knowledge and computer simulators in order to provide decision support for policy makers managing complex physical systems. We allow future states of the complex system to be viewed after initial policy is made, and for those states to influence revision of policy. The potential for future observations and intervention impacts heavily on optimal policy for today and this is handled within our approach. We show how deriving policy dependent system uncertainty using computer models leads to an intractable backwards induction problem for the resulting decision tree. We introduce an algorithm for emulating an upper bound on our expected loss surface for all possible policies and discuss how this might be used in policy support. To illustrate our methodology, we look at choosing an optimal CO2 abatement strategy, combining an intermediate complexity climate model and an economic utility model with climate data. Journal of the Operational Research Society (2012) 63, 1021-1033. doi: 10.1057/jors.2011.110 Published online 2 November 2011

关键词： dynamic programming policy support Sequential Emulation computer models bayes linear adjustment CO2 abatement

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"It Must Include Rules": Middle School Students' Computational Thinking with computer models in Science

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ACM TRANSACTIONS ON computer-HUMAN INTERACTION 2021年第2期28卷 1–41页

作者： Wiese, Eliane S. Linn, Marcia C. Univ Utah 3264 Merrill Engn Bldg50 Cent Campus Dr Salt Lake City UT 84114 USA Univ Calif Berkeley 4611 Tolman Hall Berkeley CA 94720 USA

When middle school students encounter computer models of science phenomena in science class, how do they think those computer models work? computer models operationalize real-world behaviors of selected variables, and can simulate interactions between the modeled elements through programmed instructions. This study explores how middle school students think about the high-level semantic meaning of those instructions, which we term rules. To investigate this aspect of students' computational thinking, we developed the Computational Modeling Inventory and administered it to 253 7th grade students. The Inventory included three computer models that students interacted with during the assessment. In our sample, 99% of students identified at least one key rule underlying a model, but only 14% identified all key rules;65% believed that model rules can contradict;and 98% could not distinguish between emergent patterns and behaviors that directly resulted from model rules. Despite these misconceptions, compared to the "typical" questions about the science content alone, questions about model rules elicited deeper science thinking, with 2-10 times more responses including reasoning about scientific mechanisms. These results suggest that incorporating computational thinking instruction into middle school science courses might yield deeper learning and more precise assessments around scientific models.

关键词： Middle school science computer models computer models in science

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computer models IN SUB-REGIONAL PLANNING

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REGIONAL STUDIES 1969年第3期3卷 331-336页

作者： RHODES, T S HAMPSHIRE PLAN TECH UNIT WINCHESTERENGLAND

Rhodes T. (1969) computer models in sub-regional planning, Reg. Studies 3, 331–336. The application of systems analysis techniques to urban research and their exploitation through the use of larger, faster computers is likely to transform traditional approaches to land-use forecasting. There is no shortage of conceptual models for use in sub-regional planning: however, there are relatively few operational models available to practising planners, mainly because of the elaborate data requirements of most conceptual systems.

关键词： computer models Land-use planning South Hampshire Systems Structure plan Demographic forecasting Activities allocation Rechenmaschinmodelle Bodennutzungsplanung Süd-Hampshire Systeme Strukturplan Demographische Voraussagen Aktivit?tsverteilung Modèles d'ordinateur Plan d'utilisation du sol Hampshire du Sud Plan de Structure de Système Prédictions Démographiques Allocation d'Activité Компютерные модели Планирование эемельного употреблениЯ южныЙ ХэмпШир Системы структурныЙ план ДемографическиЙ прогноэ Распределение деятельностеЙ

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A review of literature and computer models on exposure assessment

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ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGY 2009年第14期30卷 1487-1501页

作者： Butt, T. E. Clark, M. Coulon, F. Oduyemi, K. O. K. Univ Greenwich Sch Architecture & Construct London SE9 2PQ England Univ Cent Lancashire Sch Built & Nat Environm Preston PR1 2HE Lancs England Cranfield Univ Sch Appl Sci Sustainable Syst Dept Ctr Resource Management & Efficiency Cranfield MK43 0AL Beds England Univ Abertay Dundee Sch Contemporary Sci Dept Built & Nat Environm Dundee DD1 1HG Scotland

At the present time, risk analysis is an effective management tool used by environmental managers to protect the environment from inevitable anthropogenic activities. There are generic elements in environmental risk assessments, which are independent of the subject to which risk analysis is applied. Examples of these elements are: baseline study, hazard identification, hazards' concentration assessment and risk quantification. Another important example of such generic elements is exposure assessment, which is required in a risk analysis process for landfill leachate as it would in any other environmental risk issue. Furthermore, computer models are also being developed to assist risk analysis in different fields. However, in the review of current computer models and literature, particularly regarding landfills, the authors have found no evidence for the existence of a holistic exposure assessment procedure underpinned with a computational method for landfill leachate. This paper, with reference to the relevant literature and models reviewed, discusses the extent to which exposure assessment is absent in landfill risk assessment approaches. The study also indicates a number of factors and features that should be added to the exposure assessment system in order to render it more strategic, thereby enhancing the quantitative risk analysis.

关键词： waste disposal sites landfill leachate risk analysis risk assessment exposure analysis exposure assessment literature review computer models

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Error and Uncertainty Analysis of Inexact and Imprecise computer models

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JOURNAL OF COMPUTING IN CIVIL ENGINEERING 2013年第4期27卷 407-418页

作者： Farajpour, Ismail Atamturktur, Sez Clemson Univ Dept Civil Engn Clemson SC 29634 USA

computer simulations are routinely executed to predict the behavior of complex systems in many fields of engineering and science. These computer-aided predictions involve the theoretical foundation, numerical modeling, and supporting experimental data, all of which come with their associated errors. A natural question then arises concerning the validity of computer model predictions, especially in cases where these models are executed in support of high-consequence decision making. This article lays out a methodology for quantifying the degrading effects of incompleteness and inaccuracy of the theoretical foundation, numerical modeling, and experimental data on the computer model predictions. Through the method discussed in this paper, the validity of model predictions can be judged and communicated between involved parties in a quantitative and objective manner.

关键词： Optimization Uncertainty principles Parameters Calibration Validation Errors computer models computer aided simulation Optimization Uncertainty propagation Discrepancy bias Parameter calibration Bias correction Model validation Model form error Test-analysis correlation

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