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Hybrid deep learning CNN-LSTM model for forecasting direct normal irradiance: a study on solar potential in Ghardaia, Algeria

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Scientific Reports 2025年第1期15卷 1-16页

作者： Ladjal, Boumediene Nadour, Mohamed Bechouat, Mohcene Hadroug, Nadji Sedraoui, Moussa Rabehi, Abdelaziz Guermoui, Mawloud Agajie, Takele Ferede Department of Automation and Electromechanics Faculty of Science and Technology University of Ghardaïa Ghardaïa Algeria Applied Automation and Industrial Diagnostics Laboratory (LAADI) Faculty of Sciences and Technology University of Djelfa Djelfa 17000 Algeria Laboratory of Inverse Problems Modeling Information and Systems (PI:MIS) University 8 Mai 1945 Guelma Algeria Telecommunications and Smart Systems Laboratory University of Djelfa PO Box 3117 Djelfa 17000 Algeria Centre de Développement des Energies Renouvelables Unité de Recherche Appliquée en Energies Renouvelables URAER CDER Ghardaïa 47133 Algeria Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Faculty of Technology Debre Markos University Debre Markos 269 Ethiopia

This paper provides an in-depth analysis and performance evaluation of four Solar Radiance (SR) prediction models. The prediction is ensured for a period ranging from a few hours to several days of the year. These models are derived from four machine learning methods, namely the feed-forward back propagation (FFBP) method, convolutional feed-forward back propagation (CFBP) method, Support Vector Regression (SVR), and the hybrid deep learning (DL) method, which combines convolutional Neural Networks and Long Short-Term Memory networks. This combination results in the CNN-LSTM model. Additionally, statistical indicators use Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Normalized Root Mean Squared Error (nRMSE). Each indicator compares the predicted output by each model above and the actual output, pre-recorded in the experimental trial. The experimental results consistently show the power of the CNN-LSTM model compared to the remaining models in terms of accuracy and reliability. This is due to its lower error rate and higher detection coefficient (R² = 0.99925). © The Author(s) 2025.

关键词： Artificial neural networks convolutional feed-forward back propagation convolutional neural network Deep learning feed-forward back propagation Long short-term memory Solar radiance forecasting

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