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Comparative assessment of future solar power potential based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensembles

RENEWABLE ENERGY 2023年 206卷 324-335页

作者： Ha, Subin Zhou, Zixuan Im, Eun-Soon Lee, Young-Mi Hong Kong Univ Sci & Technol Dept Civil & Environm Engn Hong Kong Peoples R China Hong Kong Univ Sci & Technol Div Environm & Sustainabil Hong Kong Peoples R China ECO Brain Co Ltd Seoul South Korea Hong Kong Univ Sci & Technol Kowloon Acad Bldg 3594Clear Water Bay Hong Kong Peoples R China

While the popularity and feasibility of solar power have increased toward achieving a low-carbon and climate-resilient society, it is uncertain how changes in climate attributes will affect the future potential of solar power output. This study presents a comparative assessment of future changes in solar power in terms of the technology for harnessing energy from insolation (PVP vs CSP), climate projections (CMIP5 vs CMIP6), and emission sce-narios. Both CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model projections capture the major characteristics of the global distri-bution seen in PVP and CSP calculated using the reanalysis data during the historical period. However, despite the general similarity to CMIP5-based results, CMIP6 models slightly outperform their CMIP5 counterparts regarding quantitative metrics and enhance the robustness of the future change signal estimated by the statistical significance and inter-model consistency. The future changes in PVP and CSP patterns are sensitive to the emission scenarios that can control the degree of warming. Under the fossil-fueled development scenarios, the greater increase in temperatures may lead to a high vulnerability of the solar power supply by reducing the output of both PVP and CSP. This study is timely and relevant to emphasizing the benefits of climate change mitigation, which can support the sustainable development of solar energy.

关键词： Solar power potential Multi-model projections coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 Climate change mitigation coupled model intercomparison project phase 6

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On Constraining projections of Future Climate Using Observations and Simulations From Multiple Climate models

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JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION 2021年第534期116卷 546-557页

作者： Sansom, Philip G. Stephenson, David B. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Univ Exeter Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci Exeter Devon England British Antarctic Survey Cambridge England

Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a major source of uncertainty about future climate. Emergent relationships shared by multiple climate models have the potential to constrain our uncertainty when combined with historical observations. We combine projections from 13 climate models with observational data to quantify the impact of emergent relationships on projections of future warming in the Arctic at the end of the 21st century. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian framework based on a coexchangeable representation of the relationship between climate models and the Earth system. We show how emergent constraints fit into the coexchangeable representation, and extend it to account for internal variability simulated by the models and natural variability in the Earth system. Our analysis shows that projected warming in some regions of the Arctic may be more than 2 degrees C lower and our uncertainty reduced by up to 30% when constrained by historical observations. A detailed theoretical comparison with existing multi-model projection frameworks is also provided. In particular, we show that projections may be biased if we do not account for internal variability in climate model predictions. for this article, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work, are available as an online supplement.

关键词： Bayesian modeling coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 Emergent constraints Hierarchical models Measurement error

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Selection of CMIP5 GCM Ensemble for the projection of Spatio-Temporal Changes in Precipitation and Temperature over the Niger Delta, Nigeria

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WATER 2020年第2期12卷 385-385页

作者： Hassan, Ibrahim Kalin, Robert M. White, Christopher J. Aladejana, Jamiu A. Univ Strathclyde Dept Civil & Environm Engn 16 Richmond St Glasgow G1 1XQ Lanark Scotland Univ Bauchi Abubakar Tafawa Balewa Dept Civil Engn Bauchi 740001 Bauchi State Nigeria Univ Ibadan Dept Geol Ibadan 200001 Oyo State Nigeria

Selection of a suitable general circulation model (GCM) ensemble is crucial for effective water resource management and reliable climate studies in developing countries with constraint in human and computational resources. A careful selection of a GCM subset by excluding those with limited similarity to the observed climate from the existing pool of GCMs developed by different modeling centers at various resolutions can ease the task and minimize uncertainties. In this study, a feature selection method known as symmetrical uncertainty (SU) was employed to assess the performance of 26 coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) GCM outputs under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The selection was made according to their capability to simulate observed daily precipitation (prcp), maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin) over the historical period 1980-2005 in the Niger Delta region, which is highly vulnerable to extreme climate events. The ensemble of the four top-ranked GCMs, namely ACCESS1.3, MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHM, and NorESM1-M, were selected for the spatio-temporal projection of prcp, Tmax, and Tmin over the study area. Results from the chosen ensemble predicted an increase in the mean annual prcp between the range of 0.26% to 3.57% under RCP4.5, and 0.7% to 4.94% under RCP 8.5 by the end of the century when compared to the base period. The study also revealed an increase in Tmax in the range of 0 to 0.4 degrees C under RCP4.5 and 1.25-1.79 degrees C under RCP8.5 during the periods 2070-2099. Tmin also revealed a significant increase of 0 to 0.52 degrees C under RCP4.5 and between 1.38-2.02 degrees C under RCP8.5, which shows that extreme events might threaten the Niger Delta due to climate change. Water resource managers in the region can use these findings for effective water resource planning, management, and adaptation measures.

关键词： global climate models Niger Delta coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 representative concentration pathways symmetrical uncertainty temperature precipitation gridded dataset

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Influence of the North Pacific Victoria Mode on the Madden-Julian Oscillation

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FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE 2020年 8卷

作者： Wen, Tao Chen, Quanliang Li, Jianping Ding, Ruiqiang Tseng, Yu-heng Hou, Zhaolu Li, Xumin Beijing Normal Univ State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Beijing Peoples R China Chengdu Univ Informat Technol Plateau Atmosphere & Environm Key Lab Sichuan Pro Chengdu Peoples R China Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol Lab Reg Oceanog & Numer Modeling Qingdao Peoples R China Beijing Normal Univ State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol Beijing Peoples R China Natl Taiwan Univ Inst Oceanog Taipei Taiwan Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol Sch Atmospher Sci CIC FEMDI LCEC Key Lab Meteorol DisasterMinist Educ Nanjing Peoples R China

Using the observational data and the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) models this study examined the influence of the North Pacific Victoria mode (VM) on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The results show that the February-April VM had a significant influence on the development and propagation of the MJO over the equatorial central-western Pacific (ECWP) during spring (March-May) between 1979 and 2017. Specifically, MJO development was favored more by positive VM events than negative VM events. These complicated connections could have been caused by the SST gradient anomalies associated with positive VM events, enhancing the convergence of low-level over the ECWP. When this is combined with warm SST anomalies in the equatorial central Pacific it could have led to a boost in the Kelvin wave anomalies, resulting in enhanced MJO activity over the ECWP. These conclusions indicate that the VM is an important factor in MJO diversity.

关键词： Madden Julian oscillation Victoria mode air-sea coupling barrier effect coupled model intercomparison project phase 5

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modelING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATIONS IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

MODELING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TROPICAL CYCLONE F...

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作者： Carter, Robert B. Naval Postgraduate School

学位级别：硕士

A dynamical-statistical modeling approach was used to investigate climate change impacts on tropical cyclone (TC) formations in the western North Pacific (WNP). Reanalysis data and climate model projections were analyzed for 1981–2050 to identify both past and future impacts. The projections came from the Community Climate System model version 4 (CCSM4). The primary analysis tool was a statistical model that uses information about large-scale environmental factors (LSEFs) to predict the probability of TC formation. This model was built using data on the LSEFs and TC formations during the last several decades. We forced the statistical model with the reanalysis LSEFs and with the climate model LSEFs outputs from the climate model to produce formation probability analyses for 1981–2018. The two methods for calculating the probabilities both showed increasing trends during this period for the central WNP region in which most WNP formations occur. These trends are consistent with the observed increase in TC formations in this region during this period. The climate model probabilities based on long-term mean, El Niño, and La Niña LSEFs for 1981–2018 were also consistent with observed TC formations. For future decades, the climate model projections showed multi-decadal increases in both TC formation probabilities and the WNP area in which TC formation is most probable. We recommend continued use of dynamical-statistical methods as observational data and climate models improve.

关键词： tropical cyclone climate change statistical modelling large scale environmental factors LSEF Western Pacific Representative Concentration Pathway RCP climate system predictors hindcast tropical cyclone formation areas Climate Forecast System Reanalysis Climate Forecast System version 2 coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 CMIP5 Community Climate System model version 4

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Changes in Cold Surge Occurrence over East Asia in the Future: Role of Thermal Structure

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ATMOSPHERE 2018年第6期9卷 222-222页

作者： Heo, Jin-Woo Ho, Chang-Hoi Park, Tae-Won Choi, Woosuk Jeong, Jee-Hoon Kim, Jinwon Seoul Natl Univ Sch Earth & Environm Sci Seoul 08826 South Korea Chonnam Natl Univ Dept Earth Sci Educ Gwangju 61186 South Korea Chonnam Natl Univ Dept Oceanog Gwangju 61186 South Korea Natl Inst Meteorol Res Div Climate Res Jeju 63568 South Korea

The occurrence of wintertime cold surges (CSs) over East Asia is largely controlled by the surface air temperature (SAT) distribution at high latitudes and thermal advection in the lower troposphere. The thermodynamic background state over northeastern Asia is associated with the strength of the East Asian winter monsoon and the variation of Arctic Oscillation. This study assesses the importance of the SAT structure with thermal advection in determining the frequency of CS occurrences over East Asia through the analysis of nine atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models participating in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5. The historical simulations can reproduce the observed typical characteristics of CS development. On the basis of this model performance, ensemble-averaged future simulations under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 project a reduction in CS frequency by 1.1 yr(-1) in the late 21st century (2065-2095) compared to the present-day period (1975-2005). The major reason for less frequent CSs in the future is the weakened cold advection, caused by notable SAT warming over the northern part of East Asia. These results suggest that changes in the meridional SAT structure and the associated changes in thermal advection would play a more substantial role than local warming in determining future changes in the frequency of CS occurrences over East Asia.

关键词： cold surge thermal advection East Asian winter monsoon Arctic Oscillation meridional surface air temperature coupled model intercomparison project phase 5

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Statistical modeling of CMIP5 projected Changes in Extreme Wet Spells over China in the Late 21st Century

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2017年第4期31卷 678-693页

作者： Lianhua ZHU Yun LI Zhihong JIANG Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology Nanjing 210044 China School of Mathematics and Statistics Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing 210044 China Business Intelligence & Data Analytics Western Power WA 6000 Australia

The observed intensity, frequency, and duration（IFD） of summer wet spells, defined here as extreme events with one or more consecutive days in which daily precipitation exceeds a given threshold（the 95th percentile）, and their future changes in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the late 21st century over China, are investigated by using the wet spell model（WSM） and by extending the point process approach to extreme value analysis. Wet spell intensity is modeled by a conditional generalized Pareto distribution, frequency by a Poisson distribution, and duration by a geometric distribution, respectively. The WSM is able to realistically model summer extreme rainfall spells during 1961–2005, as verified with observations at 553 stations throughout China. To minimize the impact of systematic biases over China in the global climate models（GCMs） of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5（CMIP5）, five best GCMs are selected based on their performance to reproduce observed wet spell IFD and average precipitation during the historical period. Furthermore, a quantile–quantile scaling correction procedure is proposed and applied to produce ensemble projections of wet spell IFD and corresponding probability distributions. The results show that in the late 21st century, most of China will experience more extreme rainfall and less low-intensity rainfall. The intensity and frequency of wet spells are projected to increase considerably, while the duration of wet spells will increase but to a much less extent. The IFD changes in RCP8.5 are in general much larger than those in RCP4.5.

关键词： wet spell model extreme value theory bias correction coupled model intercomparison project phase 5

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A sixfold rise in concurrent day and night-time heatwaves in India under 2 °C warming

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SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 2018年第1期8卷 1-9页

作者： Mukherjee, Sourav Mishra, Vimal Indian Inst Technol Gandhinagar Civil Engn Gandhinagar 382355 Gujarat India

Heatwaves with severe impacts have increased and projected to become more frequent under warming climate in India. Concurrent day and nighttime heatwaves can exacerbate human discomfort causing high morbidity and mortality;however, their changes in the observed and projected climate remain unrecognized. Here using observations and model simulations from climate of 20th century plus (C20C+) detection and attribution (D&A) and coupled model intercomparison project 5 (CMIP5) projects, we show that 1 and 3-day concurrent hot day and hot night (CHDHN) events have significantly increased during the observed climate in India. Our results show that the anthropogenic emissions contribute considerably to the increase of 1 and 3-day CHDHN events in India. The frequency of 3-day CHDHN events is projected to increase 12-fold of the current level by the end of 21st century and 4-fold by the mid 21st century under the high emission pathway of RCP 8.5. The increase in 3-day CHDHN events can be limited to only 2-fold by the end of 21st century under low emission scenario of RCP 2.6. One and 3-day CHDHN events are projected to increase by 4, 6, and 8 folds of the current level in India under the 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees C warming worlds, respectively. Restricting global mean temperature below 1.5 degrees from the pre-industrial level can substantially reduce the risk of 1 and 3-day CHDHN events and associated implications in India.

关键词： High Emission Pathway 20th Century Plus coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 Global Mean Temperature CMIP5 models

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Changes in site-scale temperature extremes over China during 2071-2100 in CMIP5 simulations

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JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 2016年第6期121卷 2732-2749页

作者： Chen, Yongqin David Li, Jianfeng Zhang, Qiang Chinese Univ Hong Kong Dept Geog & Resource Management Hong Kong Hong Kong Peoples R China Chinese Univ Hong Kong Inst Environm Energy & Sustainabil Hong Kong Hong Kong Peoples R China Hong Kong Baptist Univ Dept Geog Hong Kong Hong Kong Peoples R China Sun Yat Sen Univ Dept Water Resources & Environm Guangzhou 510275 Guangdong Peoples R China

Site-scale changes in probability behaviors of temperature extremes across China during 2071-2100 are studied with general circulation models (GCMs) provided by the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5). Future temperature extremes are compared to those of 1961-2005 estimated from observed daily temperatures at 498 stations. Temperature extremes are described by 15 indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices;quantile mapping (QM) is used to downscale the gridded GCMs outputs to site scale. The site-scale and grid-scale changes of temperature extremes are compared. Results indicate that during 2071-2100, increases of daily maximum and minimum temperatures are more pronounced in the Songhua River Basin, the Liao River Basin, the Hai River Basin, the north part of the Yellow River Basin, and the Northwest Rivers. The numbers of warm days are 3 times of observations, and the warm spell durations become longer. Summer days and tropical nights, which have never been observed in the Tibetan Plateau, may occur in the future. Cold spell may disappear in the Songhua River Basin and the Liao River Basin. Compared to the grid-scale changes, appearance or disappearance of extremes at the site scale is more obvious with higher confidence. The spatial patterns of the site-scale and grid-scale changes are similar, but the change rates are different to a certain extent. For extremes that are more spatially homogenous, the site-scale and grid-scale change rates are close. But for extremes that are more spatially heterogeneous, the site-scale changes are more remarkable.

关键词： temperature extreme downscaling projection coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 China

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A comparison of the CMIP5 models on the historical simulation of the upper ocean heat content in the South China Sea

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2014年第11期33卷 75-84页

作者： WANG Gang LIN Min Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling (MASNUM) the First Institute of OceanographyState Oceanic Administration Key Laboratory of Data Analysis and Applications the First Institute of OceanographyState Oceanic Administration Department of Mathematics Ocean University of China

Seventeen models participating in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5（CMIP5） activity are compared on their historical simulation of the South China Sea（SCS） ocean heat content（OHC） in the upper 300 m. Ishii＇s temperature data, based on the World Ocean Database 2005（WOD05） and World Ocean Atlas 2005（WOA05）, is used to assess the model performance by comparing the spatial patterns of seasonal OHC anomaly（OHCa） climatology, OHC climatology, monthly OHCa climatology, and interannual variability of OHCa. The spatial patterns in Ishii＇s data set show that the seasonal SCS OHCa climatology, both in winter and summer, is strongly affected by the wind stress and the current circulations in the SCS and its neighboring areas. However, the CMIP5 models present rather different spatial patterns and only a few models properly capture the dominant features in Ishii＇s pattern. Among them, GFDL-ESM2 G is of the best performance. The SCS OHC climatology in the upper 300 m varies greatly in different models. Most of them are much greater than those calculated from Ishii＇s data. However, the monthly OHCa climatology in each of the 17 CMIP5 models yields similar variation and magnitude as that in Ishii＇s. As for the interannual variability, the standard deviations of the OHCa time series in most of the models are somewhat larger than those in Ishii＇s. The correlation between the interannual time series of Ishii＇s OHCa and that from each of the 17 models is not satisfactory. Among them, BCC-CSM1.1 has the highest correlation to Ishii＇s, with a coefficient of about 0.6.

关键词： South China Sea ocean heat content coupled model intercomparison project phase 5

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