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Aircraft fuel burn performance study: A data-enhanced modeling approach

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART D-TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT 2018年 65卷 574-595页

作者： Yanto, Jefry Liem, Rhea P. HKUST Hong Kong Peoples R China

The rapid growth in commercial air transportation and the price volatility of fuel push for fuel reduction policy to be implemented. Some changes in technology (e.g., improved designs of aircraft and engines), operations (e.g., improved flight routes), or both have shown promising results on fuel reduction in air transportation. Several candidate policy scenarios related to fuel consumption need to be evaluated, which call for fast, efficient, yet accurate fuel burn computation methods, in particular to compute the total aggregate fuel burn given a set of flight missions. While fuel burn evaluation models exist, some are computationally expensive or built based on data that might be outdated. Others suffer from the lack of accuracy due to simplification assumptions and computations. As such, we develop a fuel burn evaluation model by combining a low-fidelity physics-based model with aircraft operation and performance data. For a more accurate fuel burn computation, especially for the climb and descent segments, we integrate the state-of-the-art Base of Aircraft data (BADA) trajectory simulation results into the fuel burn model. This model offers enhanced accuracy compared to low-fidelity models, yet retains their computational efficiency. In this paper, a fuel burn database corresponding to 40 aircraft types is generated based on the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) flight missions' database 2015. A sample-based linear regression model is then derived for each aircraft type. The validation results show that the model can estimate the total aggregate fuel burn for each aircraft type with less than 1% prediction errors using flight mission data from 2016, and less than 6% prediction errors when compared with the actual fuel burn data corresponding to three commercial airlines in 2015 and 2016. The developed models are then used to investigate the two common simplifying assumptions in fuel burn evaluation, namely the cruise-only approximation and similar aircr

关键词： Aircraft fuel burn Air transportation Flight mission analysis Regression modeling data-enhanced modeling Unsupervised learning algorithm

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