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Applying dynamic simulation modeling Methods in Health Care Delivery Research-The SIMULATE Checklist: Report of the ISPOR simulation modeling Emerging Good Practices Task Force

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VALUE IN HEALTH 2015年第1期18卷 5-16页

作者： Marshall, Deborah A. Burgos-Liz, Lina IJzerman, Maarten J. Osgood, Nathaniel D. Padula, William V. Higashi, Mitchell K. Wong, Peter K. Pasupathy, Kalyan S. Crown, William Univ Calgary Cumming Sch Med Dept Community Hlth Sci Calgary AB T2N 4Z6 Canada Univ Calgary Div Rheumatol Dept Med Calgary AB T2N 4Z6 Canada Univ Calgary McCaig Inst Bone & Joint Hlth Calgary AB T2N 4Z6 Canada Univ Calgary Alberta Bone & Joint Hlth Inst Calgary AB T2N 4Z6 Canada Univ Twente Dept Hlth Technol & Serv Res NL-7500 AE Enschede Netherlands Univ Saskatchewan Dept Comp Sci Hlth & Epidemiol Saskatoon SK Canada Univ Saskatchewan Bioengn Div Saskatoon SK Canada Univ Saskatchewan Dept Community Hlth & Epidemiol Saskatoon SK Canada Univ Chicago Sect Hosp Med Chicago IL 60637 USA GE Hlth Care Barrington IL USA Hosp Sisters Hlth Syst HSHS Illinois Div Belleville IL USA Hosp Sisters Hlth Syst Med Grp Belleville IL USA Mayo Clin Robert D & Patricia E Kern Ctr Sci Hlth Hlth Care Syst Engn Program Rochester MN USA Mayo Clin Hlth Care Syst Engn Program Rochester MN USA

Health care delivery systems are inherently complex, consisting of multiple tiers of interdependent subsystems and processes that are adaptive to changes in the environment and behave in a nonlinear fashion. Traditional health technology assessment and modeling methods often neglect the wider health system impacts that can be critical for achieving desired health system goals and are often of limited usefulness when applied to complex health systems. Researchers and health care decision makers can either underestimate or fail to consider the interactions among the people, processes, technology, and facility designs. Health care delivery system interventions need to incorporate the dynamics and complexities of the health care system context in which the intervention is delivered. This report provides an overview of common dynamic simulation modeling methods and examples of health care system interventions in which such methods could be useful. Three dynamic simulation modeling methods are presented to evaluate system interventions for health care delivery: system dynamics, discrete event simulation, and agent-based modeling. In contrast to conventional evaluations, a dynamic systems approach incorporates the complexity of the system and anticipates the upstream and downstream consequences of changes in complex health care delivery systems. This report assists researchers and decision makers in deciding whether these simulation methods are appropriate to address specific health system problems through an eightpoint checklist referred to as the SIMULATE (System, Interactions, Multilevel, Understanding, Loops, Agents, Time, Emergence) tool. it is a primer for researchers and decision makers working in health care delivery and implementation sciences who face complex challenges in delivering effective and efficient care that can be addressed with system interventions. On reviewing this report, the readers should be able to identify whether these simulation modeling metho

关键词： decision making dynamic simulation modeling health care delivery methods

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Selecting a dynamic simulation modeling Method for Health Care Delivery Research Part 2: Report of the ISPOR dynamic simulation modeling Emerging Good Practices Task Force

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VALUE IN HEALTH 2015年第2期18卷 147-160页

作者： Marshall, Deborah A. Burgos-Liz, Lina Uzerman, Maarten J. Crown, William Padula, William V. Wong, Peter K. Pasupathy, Kalyan S. Higashi, Mitchell K. Osgood, Nathaniel D. Univ Calgary Dept Community Hlth Sci Cumming Sch Med Hlth Serv & Syst Res Calgary AB T2N 4Z6 Canada Univ Calgary Cumming Sch Med Calgary AB T2N 4Z6 Canada Univ Twente Dept Hlth Technol & Serv Res NL-7500 AE Enschede Netherlands Optum Labs Boston MA USA Univ Chicago Sect Hosp Med Chicago IL 60637 USA Hosp Sisters Hlth Syst HSHS Illinois Div Belleville IL USA Hosp Sisters Hlth Syst Med Grp Belleville IL USA Mayo Clin Robert D & Patricia E Kern Ctr Sci Hlth Care Deli Hlth Care Syst Engn Program Rochester MN USA GE Healthcare Barrington IL USA Univ Saskatchewan Dept Comp Sci Saskatoon SK S7N 0W0 Canada Dept Community Hlth Saskatoon SK Canada Epidemiol & Bioengn Div Saskatoon SK Canada

In a previous report, the ISPOR Task Force on dynamic simulation modeling Applications in Health Care Delivery Research Emerging Good Practices introduced the fundamentals of dynamic simulation modeling and identified the types of health care delivery problems for which dynamic simulation modeling can be used more effectively than other modeling methods. The hierarchical relationship between the health care delivery system, providers, patients, and other stakeholders exhibits a level of complexity that ought to be captured using dynamic simulation modeling methods. As a tool to help researchers decide whether dynamic simulation modeling is an appropriate method for modeling the effects of an intervention on a health care system, we presented the System, Interactions, Multilevel, Understanding, Loops, Agents, Time, Emergence (SIMULATE) checklist consisting of eight elements. This report builds on the previous work, systematically comparing each of the three most commonly used dynamic simulation modeling methods system dynamics, discreteevent simulation, and agent based modeling. We review criteria for selecting the most suitable method depending on 1) the purpose type of problem and research questions being investigated, 2) the object scope of the model, and 3) the method to model the object to achieve the purpose. Finally, we provide guidance for emerging good practices for dynamic simulation modeling in the health sector, covering all aspects, from the engagement of decision makers in the model design through model maintenance and upkeep. We conclude by providing some recommendations about the application of these methods to add value to informed decision making, with an emphasis on stakeholder engagement, starting with the problem definition. Finally, we identify areas in which further methodological development will likely occur given the growing "volume, velocity and variety' and availability of "big data" to provide empirical evidence and techniques such as mac

关键词： decision making dynamic simulation modeling health care delivery methods

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Complexity of occupational health in the hospitality industry: dynamic simulation modeling to advance immigrant worker health

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HOSPITALITY MANAGEMENT 2017年 67卷 95-105页

作者： Sonmez, Sevil Apostolopoulos, Yorghos Lemke, Michael Kenneth Hsieh, Yu-Chin (Jerrie) Karwowski, Waldemar Univ Cent Florida Rosen Coll Hospitality Management Orlando FL 32816 USA Texas A&M Univ Complex & Computat Populat Hlth Grp College Stn TX USA Texas A&M Univ Dept Hlth & Kinesiol College Stn TX USA Rochester Inst Technol Dept Hospitality & Tourism Management Rochester NY 14623 USA Univ Cent Florida Dept Ind Engn & Management Syst Orlando FL USA

Hispanic immigrant workers, who are heavily employed in low-skill/low-wage lodging and foodservice jobs, work in environments that induce disproportionate health and safety risks. Traditional research approaches have produced only partial insights into the risks of Hispanic immigrant hospitality sector workers, failing to fully capture the underlying dynamic, structural, and systemic complexity of hospitality worker health. This paper has three objectives: (1) to outline the multifaceted and disproportionate health and safety risks of these workers;(2) to introduce a systems paradigm with potential to contribute to more promising approaches in occupational health and safety research in tourism and hospitality;and (3) to elaborate on how computational simulation modeling can fortify occupational health and safety research in tourism and hospitality, and offer a heuristic example of a risk prevention model among Hispanic immigrant hospitality workers rooted in a stakeholder based system dynamics modeling approach.

关键词： Occupational health Immigrant hospitality workers Complex adaptive systems dynamic simulation modeling

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Innovators and Transformers: Enhancing supply chain sustainability: a methodology combining dynamic simulation and case studies

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL DISTRIBUTION & LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT 2025年第4期55卷 409-425页

作者： Negri, Pietro Freelance Professional Milano Italy

Purpose - This paper scrutinizes existing assessment methodologies in supply chain sustainability literature and identifies a gap in microeconomic methods for comprehensively estimating current and prospective supply chain performances, encompassing both financial and environmental aspects. It presents a case study where quantitative, dynamic simulation modeling is applied to articulate and amplify a company's sustainability performance, demonstrating that a holistic approach to performance metrics can significantly refine decision-making and action prioritization in sustainability. Design/methodology/approach - Introduced here is the "ISSSC Approach, " which employs dynamic simulation modeling to quantify the flux of materials, value, and emissions within a supply chain. This methodology facilitates the construction of representative models and subsequent scenarios to inform sustainable decision-making that aligns with business objectives. The utility of the ISSSC Approach is evidenced through a case study within the dairy industry. Findings - The case study offers three pivotal insights: the innovation of a fact-based sustainability framework over traditional anecdotal methods, the harmonization of competitive and sustainable performance indicators within a company's strategic ambit, and the presentation of a novel tool for precise sustainability measurement and enhancement, attuned to context-specific constraints. Originality/value - While dynamic simulation modeling is well-established, its application to sustainability in a manufacturing context is markedly innovative. The ISSSC Approach bridges the gap between regulatory directives and the realization of tangible benefits for all stakeholders, positioning it as a critical tool for operationalizing sustainability in corporate strategy.

关键词： Sustainability strategy dynamic simulation modeling Sustainable supply chain Dairy industry Carbon footprint Decarbonization strategy Net zero

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Developing a dynamic simulation model to support the nationwide implementation of whole genome sequencing in lung cancer

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BMC MEDICAL RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 2022年第1期22卷 1-12页

作者： van de Ven, Michiel IJzerman, Maarten Retel, Valesca van Harten, Wim Koffijberg, Hendrik Univ Twente Dept Hlth Technol & Serv Res TechMed Ctr Enschede Netherlands Univ Melbourne Univ Melbourne Ctr Canc Res UMCCR Parkville Vic Australia Peter MacCallum Canc Ctr Dept Canc Res Parkville Vic Australia Univ Melbourne Ctr Hlth Policy Parkville Vic Australia Netherlands Canc Inst Antoni Van Leeuwenhoek Hosp NKI AVL Div Psychosocial Res & Epidemiol Amsterdam Netherlands Rijnstate Gen Hosp Arnhem Netherlands

Background This study shows how dynamic simulation modeling can be applied in the context of the nationwide implementation of Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS) for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) to inform organizational decisions regarding the use of complex and disruptive health technologies and how these decisions affect their potential value. Methods Using the case of the nationwide implementation of WGS into clinical practice in lung cancer in the Dutch healthcare system, we developed a simulation model to show that including service delivery features across the diagnostic pathway can provide essential insight into the affordability and accessibility of care at the systems level. The model was implemented as a hybrid Agent-Based Model and Discrete-Event simulation model in AnyLogic and included 78 hospital agents, 7 molecular tumor board agents, 1 WGS facility agent, and 5313 patient agents each year in simulation time. Results The model included patient and provider heterogeneity, including referral patterns, capacity constraints, and diagnostic workflows. Patient preference and adoption by healthcare professionals were also modeled. The model was used to analyze a scenario in which only academic hospitals have implemented WGS. To prevent delays in the diagnostic pathway, the capacity to sequence at least 1600 biopsies yearly should be present. There is a two-fold increase in mean diagnostic pathway duration between no patients referred or all patients referred for further diagnostics. Conclusions The systems model can complement conventional health economic evaluations to investigate how the organization of the workflow can influence the actual use and impact of WGS. Insufficient capacity to provide WGS and referral patterns can substantially impact the duration of the diagnostic pathway and thus should be considered in the implementation of WGS.

关键词： Implementation Whole genome sequencing dynamic simulation modeling Diagnostics Oncology

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Development of a dynamic model for natural ventilated photovoltaic components and of a data driven approach to validate and identify the model parameters

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SOLAR ENERGY 2016年 129卷 310-331页

作者： Cipriano, J. Houzeaux, G. Mor, G. Eicker, U. Carbonell, J. Danov, S. CIMNE Bldg Energy & Environm Grp CIMNE UdL Classroom C Pere de Cabrera S-N Lleida 25001 Spain Barcelona Supercomp Ctr BSC CNS Barcelona 08034 Spain Univ Appl Sci Stuttgart Res Ctr Sustainable Energy Technol Schellingstr 24 D-70174 Stuttgart Germany CIMNE Bldg Energy & Environm Grp C Rambla St Nebridi 22 Terrassa 08222 Spain

In the development of dynamic models for the energy performance evaluation of building integrated natural ventilated PV components there are still many open questions regarding the uncertainty of the estimated parameters of the models. Traditionally, the dynamic models for these complex components are derived from the heat transfer balance equations, and the unknown heat transfer coefficients (convection and radiation), the solar properties of the materials or the pressure coefficients for the air mass flow rate balance, are assigned based on literature or on manufacturer prescriptions. However, there is a lack of systematic methods able to validate the simulation outputs with the measured data, taking into consideration the uncertainty of the parameters and their effect over the results. This research is focused on the development of a dynamic simulation model for a PV ventilated component, and on the application of a data-driven iterative approach to identify the unknown parameters, to evaluate their influence in the simulation outputs and finally, to determine the deviations of the simulations outputs against the measured data. During the identification process, 43 unknown parameters are detected and 13 of them are categorized as strong parameters. The implemented data driven approach is able to achieve high goodness of fit with the measured data and it is recommended to analyses which aim at evaluating the influence of some component parameters or the thermal and electrical energy produced by these natural ventilated PV components. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

关键词： Building integrated photovoltaics dynamic simulation modeling Data driven optimization Sensitivity analysis Latin Hypercube Monte Carlo

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Extremum seeking control for efficient operation of hybrid ground source heat pump system

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RENEWABLE ENERGY 2016年 86卷 332-346页

作者： Hu, Bin Li, Yaoyu Mu, Baojie Wang, Shaojie Seem, John E. Cao, Feng Xi An Jiao Tong Univ Sch Energy & Power Engn Xian 710049 Peoples R China Univ Texas Dallas Dept Mech Engn Richardson TX 75080 USA Univ Texas Dallas Dept Elect Engn Richardson TX 75080 USA ClimateMaster Inc Oklahoma City OK USA High Altitude Trading Inc Jackson WY USA

The Hybrid Ground Source Heat Pump (GSHP) systems combine the renewable geothermal energy and cooling tower for rejecting the cooling load, which is often adopted for high cooling demand. Model based control can be limited due to variations in ambient conditions, ground-loop heat exchanger (GHE) and equipment characteristics, cost and reliability of sensors. A self-optimizing control scheme is proposed for efficient operation of the hybrid GSHP based on Extremum Seeking Control (ESC), with feedback of the total power consumption and the control inputs of the relative flow rate of cooling tower and the water pump speed. The cooling capacity of the heat pump regulates the evaporator leaving water at 7 degrees C. A Modelica based dynamic simulation model is developed for a Hybrid GSHP system, with the vertical GHE model adopted from Modelica Buildings Library. The transient heat transfer is implemented with a finite volume method inside and outside the borehole. The proposed ESC scheme is evaluated under the scenarios of fixed cooling load, ramp change in the evaporator inlet water temperature, diurnal sinusoidal cycle of air wet-bulb temperature, and realistic ambient and cooling load condition. simulation results show the proposed ESC strategy effectively achieves nearly optimal efficiency without the need for plant model. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Hybrid ground source heat pump Extremum seeking control dynamic simulation modeling Modelica

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From social science surveys to building energy modeling: Investigating user-building interaction for low-carbon heating solutions in Europe

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ENERGY REPORTS 2022年 8卷 7188-7199页

作者： Piselli, C. Pisello, A. L. Sovacool, B. K. Univ Florence Dept Architecture DIDA I-50121 Florence Italy Univ Perugia Dept Engn Via G Duranti 93 I-06125 Perugia Italy Univ Perugia Interuniv Res Ctr CIRIAF Via G Duranti 63 I-06125 Perugia Italy Univ Sussex Business Sch Univ Sussex Sci Policy Res Unit SPRU Brighton England Aarhus Univ Dept Business Dev & Technol Aarhus Denmark Boston Univ Dept Earth & Environm Boston MA USA

An extensive, representative, and, multi-country tailored survey questionnaire eliciting social practices with heat as an energy service and the relative perceptions about heating devices was submitted to a randomized sample of more than 6,000 potential end-users in Europe within the framework of the Horizon 2020 project SWS-HEATING. The project is developing an innovative seasonal thermal energy storage unit for residential use. Moreover, within the project, the role of occupancy variability and use conditions in the performance of the proposed system is assessed. The present study focuses on tailormade user-building interaction models to be implemented into dynamic simulation for the assessment of the proposed and similar systems starting from the sociological assessment of such large-scale survey results. These models take advantage from the knowledge raised by the findings of the social survey to frame for the first time occupants' behavior scenarios representative of South, central, and North European countries. In this way, the influence of cultural context and demographic factors and their relation to heating practices are considered when developing these tailored occupant behavior models. Results show the non-negligible influence (up to 43% in the coldest climate) of implementing these models on predicted building heating energy needs, as quantitative demonstration of the role of societal-related variables on final energy use estimation.(c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

关键词： Occupant Behavior Low-carbon heating User-building interaction models Social acceptance dynamic simulation modeling Energy efficiency

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A FRAMEWORK FOR MONITORING, modeling AND MANAGING WATER-QUALITY IN THE FORTH ESTUARY, SCOTLAND

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JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 1991年第4期33卷 311-325页

作者： MOFFATT, I HANLEY, N HALLETT, S SOIL SURVEY & LAND RESOURCE CTR SILSOE MK4S 4DT SCOTLAND UNIV STIRLING DEPT ENVIRONM SCI STIRLING FK9 4LA SCOTLAND UNIV STIRLING DEPT ECON STIRLING FK9 4LA SCOTLAND

A framework for monitoring, modelling and managing water quality in the Forth estuary, Scotland, is presented. The data on over 200 determinands was kindly supplied by the Forth River Purification Board and is contained in a relational database. A description of the detailed analysis of some of the physical-biochemical parameters of water quality is given. In particular, the possibility of building dynamic simulation models and integrating these with sophisticated geographical information systems (GIS) is outlined as part of the integrated framework being developed by the research team. The third aspect of the study is to integrate alternative management decisions into the investigation of water quality in the Forth estuary. A distinctive feature of this research is the attempt to explore various economic options such as transferable discharge permits, and their impact on water quality, rather than rely solely on consent agreements. Again, the ways in which these economic incentives are embedded in the framework are discussed. Finally, the progress in this research which is directed at monitoring, modelling and managing water quality in the Forth estuary is discussed.

关键词： WATER QUALITY RELATIONAL DATABASE MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS dynamic simulation modeling GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS ECONOMIC OPTIMIZATION

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Environmental impacts of urban growth from an integrated dynamic perspective: A case study of Shenzhen, South China

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GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 2008年第4期18卷 720-735页

作者： Gueneralp, Burak Seto, Karen C. Stanford Univ Dept Geol & Environm Sci Stanford CA 94305 USA Woods Inst Environm Stanford CA 94305 USA

China is home to one-fifth of the world's population and that population is increasingly urban. The landscape is also urbanizing. Although there are studies that focus on specific elements of urban growth, there is very little empirical work that incorporates feedbacks and linkages to assess the interactions between the dynamics of urban growth and their environmental impacts. In this study, we develop a system dynamics simulation model of the drivers and environmental impacts of urban growth, using Shenzhen, South China, as a case study. We identify three phases of urban growth and develop scenarios to evaluate the impact of urban growth on several environmental indicators: land use, air quality, and demand for water and energy. The results show that all developable land will be urban by 2020 and the increase in the number of vehicles will be a Major Source of air pollution. Demand for water and electricity will rise, and the city will become increasingly vulnerable to shortages of either. The scenarios also show that there will be improvements in local environmental quality as a result of increasing affluence and economic growth. However, the environmental impacts outside of Shenzhen may increase as demands for natural resources increase and Shenzhen pushes its manufacturing industries out of the municipality. The findings may also portend to changes other cities in China and elsewhere in the developing world may experience as they continue to industrialize. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Urbanization Economic growth Land use change Water demand Air quality Integrated assessment Feedback mechanism dynamic simulation modeling

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