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ENSO phase locking, asymmetry and predictability in the INMCM earth system model

RUSSIAN JOURNAL OF NUMERICAL ANALYSIS AND MATHEMATICAL modelLING 2024年第1期39卷 35-46页

作者： Seleznev, Aleksei F. Gavrilov, Andrey S. Mukhin, Dmitry N. Gritsun, Andrey S. Volodin, Evgenii M. RAS AV Gaponov Grekhov Inst Appl Phys Nizhnii Novgorod 603950 Russia RAS Marchuk Inst Numer Math Moscow 119333 Russia

Advanced numerical climate models are known to exhibit biases in simulating some features of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is a key mode of interannual climate variability. In this study we analyze how two fundamental features of observed ENSO - asymmetry between hot and cold states and phase-locking to the annual cycle - are reflected in two different versions of the INMCM earth system model (state-of-the-art earth system model participating in the Coupled model Intercomparison Project). We identify the above ENSO features using the conventional empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analysis, which is applied to both observed and simulated upper ocean heat content (OHC) data in the tropical Pacific. We obtain that the observed tropical Pacific OHC variability is described well by two leading EOF-modes, which roughly reflect the fundamental recharge-discharge mechanism of ENSO. These modes exhibit strong seasonal cycles associated with ENSO phase locking while the revealed nonlinear dependencies between amplitudes of these cycles reflect ENSO *** also assess and compare the predictability of observed and simulated ENSO based on linear inverse modelling. We find that the improved INMCM6 model has significant benefits in simulating described features of observed ENSO as compared with the previous INMCM5 model. The improvements of the INMCM6 model providing such benefits are discussed. We argue that proper cloud parameterization scheme is crucial for accurate simulation of ENSO dynamics with numerical climate models.

关键词： El Nino-Southern Oscillation earth system model ENSO phase locking ENSO asymmetry

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Recreating the California New Year's Flood Event of 1997 in a Regionally Refined earth system model

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JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN modelING earth systemS 2023年第10期15卷 e2023MS003793-e2023MS003793页

作者： Rhoades, Alan M. Zarzycki, Colin M. Inda-Diaz, Hector A. Ombadi, Mohammed Pasquier, Ulysse Srivastava, Abhishekh Hatchett, Benjamin J. Dennis, Eli Heggli, Anne McCrary, Rachel McGinnis, Seth Rahimi-Esfarjani, Stefan Slinskey, Emily Ullrich, Paul A. Wehner, Michael Jones, Andrew D. Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab Earth & Environm Sci Area Berkeley CA 94720 USA Penn State Univ Dept Meteorol & Atmospher Sci State Coll PA USA Univ Michigan Dept Climate & Space Sci & Engn Ann Arbor MI USA Univ Calif Davis Dept Land Air & Water Resources Davis CA USA Desert Res Inst Reno NV USA Univ Calif Los Angeles Inst Environm & Sustainabil Los Angeles CA USA Natl Ctr Atmospher Res Boulder CO USA Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab Phys & Life Sci Directorate Livermore CA USA Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab Computat Sci Div Berkeley CA USA Univ Calif Berkeley Energy & Resources Grp Berkeley CA USA

The 1997 New Year's flood event was the most costly in California's history. This compound extreme event was driven by a category 5 atmospheric river that led to widespread snowmelt. Extreme precipitation, snowmelt, and saturated soils produced heavy runoff causing widespread inundation in the Sacramento Valley. This study recreates the 1997 flood using the Regionally Refined Mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale earth system model (RRM-E3SM) under prescribed ocean conditions. Understanding the processes causing extreme events informs practical efforts to anticipate and prepare for such events in the future, and also provides a rich context to evaluate model skill in representing extremes. Three California-focused RRM grids, with horizontal resolution refinement of 14 km down to 3.5 km, and six forecast lead times, 28 December 1996 at 00Z through 30 December 1996 at 12Z, are assessed for their ability to recreate the 1997 flood. Planetary to synoptic scale atmospheric circulations and integrated vapor transport are weakly influenced by horizontal resolution refinement over California. Topography and mesoscale circulations, such as the Sierra barrier jet, are better represented at finer horizontal resolutions resulting in better estimates of storm total precipitation and storm duration snowpack changes. Traditional time-series and causal analysis frameworks are used to examine runoff sensitivities state-wide and above major reservoirs. These frameworks show that horizontal resolution plays a more prominent role in shaping reservoir inflows, namely the magnitude and time-series shape, than forecast lead time, 2-to-4 days prior to the 1997 flood onset.

关键词： hydrometeorology flood rain-on-snow earth system model extremes regionally refined mesh

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Assessment of Changes in the Temperature Regime of Northern Eurasia for the Next Five Years According to the INM RAS earth system model Forecasts and Their Possible Consequences for Agriculture

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RUSSIAN METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY 2023年第9期48卷 745-754页

作者： Khan, V. M. Vil'fand, R. M. Tishchenko, V. A. Emelina, S. V. Gritsun, A. S. Volodin, E. M. Vorobyeva, V. V. Tarasevich, M. A. Hydrometeorol Res Ctr Russian Federat Moscow 123242 Russia Russian Acad Sci Marchuk Inst Numer Math Moscow 119333 Russia Russian Acad Sci Obukhov Inst Atmospher Phys Moscow 119017 Russia Moscow Inst Phys & Technol Dolgoprudnyi 141700 Moscow Oblast Russia

Estimates of future changes in the characteristics of the air temperature regime in Northern Eurasia over a five-year time interval are presented. The estimates are based on the forecasts of the earth climate model developed at Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The skill of the forecasts for the territory of Northern Eurasia is discussed using standard skill scores for long-range forecasts. Regions where surface air temperature anomalies are likely to exceed the threshold targets of the Paris Agreement are identified. The consequences of a possible change in the growing season and dates of the stable air temperature above 5 degrees C for agriculture are analyzed. The presented estimates of possible changes in the air temperature characteristics in Northern Eurasia over a five-year interval provide a more objective pattern of expected climate change and can be useful to determine optimal solutions for the development of agricultural sector in the changing climate and to minimize possible negative consequences.

关键词： ultra-long-range forecasting earth system model forecast skill scores growing season changes in air temperature regime

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Ensemble-based statistical verification of INM RAS earth system model

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RUSSIAN JOURNAL OF NUMERICAL ANALYSIS AND MATHEMATICAL modelLING 2023年第3期38卷 173-186页

作者： Tarasevich, Maria A. Tsybulin, Ivan V. Onoprienko, Vladimir A. Kulyamin, Dmitry V. Volodin, Evgeny M. RAS Marchuk Inst Numer Math Moscow 119333 Russia Moscow Inst Phys & Technol Dolgoprudnyi 141701 Russia Hydrometctr Russia Moscow 123376 Russia Yandex Technol Moscow 119021 Russia

Modern numerical models of the earth system are complex and inherit its natural chaotic behaviour. The numerical results depend on various specifications of the simulation process, including computing systems, compilers, etc. Due to the chaotic behaviour, these minor differences lead to significant and unpredictable deviations. Therefore, some procedure verifying that simulation results describe the behaviour of the same physical system is of practical *** present paper proposes a statistical verification algorithm developed for the INM RAS earth system model. Different ensemble generation techniques and statistical estimators are evaluated for verification suitability. The ability of the method to detect the deviations in the simulation results is demonstrated on a series of cases. Practical guidelines on how to choose the perturbation amplitude for the ensemble generation are provided for various verification cases.

关键词： Statistical verification ensemble-based verification earth system model

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Estimating Arctic Ocean Acoustic Travel Times Using an earth system model

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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 2023年第7期50卷 e2022GL102216-e2022GL102216页

作者： Niklasson, S. M. Veneziani, M. Rowe, C. A. Worcester, P. F. Dzieciuch, M. A. Bilek, S. L. Price, S. F. Roberts, A. F. Los Alamos Natl Lab Los Alamos NM 87545 USA New Mexico Inst Min & Technol Socorro NM 87801 USA Univ Calif San Diego Scripps Inst Oceanog San Diego CA USA

The hydroacoustic environment of a rapidly warming Arctic Ocean will be impacted by interconnected changes in the physical environment and increased human activity. Previous acoustic calculations will need to be updated to reflect current and future conditions. earth system models are important tools for making projections of changes in a wide range of physical processes under future climates. We present a comparison of Arctic acoustic travel times based on output from the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale earth system model with measured travel times from the 2016-2017 Canada Basin Acoustic Propagation Experiment and with travel times predicted by empirical temperature and salinity observations. This comparison allows us to test the impact of changes in Arctic sound speed profiles on acoustic travel times and connects Arctic hydroacoustics with the changing Arctic environment as described by a climate model.

关键词： Arctic Ocean ocean acoustics earth system model climate

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earth system model's capability of predicting drought-induced crop failure

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ENVIRONMENTAL earth SCIENCES 2024年第13期83卷 417页

作者： Obata, Atsushi Tsujino, Hiroyuki Meteorol Coll 7-4-81 Asahi Cho Kashiwa 277-0852 Japan Meteorol Res Inst Tsukuba Japan

We used the Meteorological Research Institute earth system model to investigate land precipitation and net primary production (NPP, proxy for agricultural production here) in terms of food and water security. In the preindustrial state, the largest decrease in Southeast Asian precipitation (> 20%) occurs along with the largest El Nino and positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, consistent with the 1876-78 Great Drought, leading to the largest decrease in NPP (similar to 20%);>2 standard deviations, extreme dryness and crop failure. In relatively arid regions (e.g., India and northeastern Brazil), the largest decreases in precipitation and NPP reach >= 50%, particularly 80 similar to 90% in Deccan, India. In the 21st century warming projection (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5-8.5, the largest CO2 emission scenario), the interannual variability of precipitation and NPP in Monsoon Asia increase under the influence of enhanced El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Although the increased precipitation variability indicates more frequent severer droughts than in the preindustrial state, this severity does not influence NPP so much: the increased NPP variability is negligible compared to the significant increase in normal NPP by CO2 fertilization effect, which indicates usually rich harvests. Compared to a recent severe crop failure (- 25% in Japan in 1993), the simulated preindustrial drought-induced NPP decreases of >= 50% in parts of low latitudes are extraordinarily large enough to correspond to devastating crop failures. The model indicates that great famines before the 20th century were natural in origin, and that manmade factors, such as harsh taxes and hoarding and export of grain, made the famines more devastating.

关键词： earth system model Net primary production Drought Crop failure El Nino

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Development of Land-River Two-Way Hydrologic Coupling for Floodplain Inundation in the Energy Exascale earth system model

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JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN modelING earth systemS 2022年第8期14卷 e2021MS002772-e2021MS002772页

作者： Xu, Donghui Bisht, Gautam Zhou, Tian Leung, L. Ruby Pan, Ming Pacific Northwest Natl Lab Atmospher Sci & Global Change Div Richland WA 99352 USA Univ Calif San Diego Ctr Western Weather & Water Extremes Scripps Inst Oceanog La Jolla CA 92093 USA

Floodplain inundation links river and land systems through significant water, sediment, and nutrient exchanges. However, these two-way interactions between land and river are currently missing in most earth system models. In this study, we introduced the two-way hydrological coupling between the land component, E3SM Land model, and the river component, model for Scale Adaptive River Transport, in Energy Exascale earth system model (E3SM) to study the impacts of floodplain inundation on land and river processes. We calibrated the river channel geometry and developed a new data-driven inundation scheme to improve the simulation of inundation dynamics in E3SM. The new inundation scheme captures 96% of the spatial variation of inundation area in a satellite inundation product at global scale, in contrast with 7% when the default inundation scheme of E3SM was used. Global simulations including the new inundation scheme performed at 0.5 degrees x0.5 degrees resolution with and without land-river two-way coupling was used to quantify the impact of coupling. Comparisons show that two-way coupling modifies the water and energy cycle in 20% of the global land cells. Specifically, riverine inundation is reduced by two-way coupling, but inland inundation is intensified. Wetter periods are more impacted by the two-way coupling at the global scale, while regions with different climates exhibit different sensitivities. The two-way exchange of water between the land and river components of E3SM provides the foundation for enabling two-way coupling of land-river sediment and biogeochemical fluxes. These capabilities will be used to improve understanding of the interactions between water and biogeochemical cycles and their response to human perturbations.

关键词： floodplain inundation dynamics earth system model land-river interactions surface-subsurface interactions satellite data

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More Realistic Intermediate Depth Dry Firn Densification in the Energy Exascale earth system model (E3SM)

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JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN modelING earth systemS 2022年第3期14卷

作者： Schneider, Adam M. Zender, Charles S. Price, Stephen F. Univ Calif Irvine Dept Earth Syst Sci Irvine CA 92697 USA Los Alamos Natl Lab Fluid Dynam & Solid Mech Grp Los Alamos NM USA

earth system models account for seasonal snow cover, but many do not accommodate the deeper snowpack on ice sheets (aka firn) that slowly transforms to ice under accumulating snowfall. To accommodate and resolve firn depths of up to 60 m in the Energy Exascale earth system model's land surface model (ELM), we add 11 layers to its snowpack and evaluate three dry snow compaction equations in multi-century simulations. After comparing results from ELM simulations (forced with atmospheric reanalysis) with empirical data, we find that implementing into ELM a two-stage firn densification model produces more accurate dry firn densities at intermediate depths of 20-60 m. Compared to modeling firn using the equations in the (12 layer) Community Land model (version 5), switching to the two-stage firn densification model (with 16 layers) significantly decreases root-mean-square errors in upper 60 m dry firn densities by an average of 41 kg m(-3) (31%). Simulations with three different firn density parameterizations show that the two-stage firn densification model should be used for applications that prioritize accurate upper 60 m firn air content (FAC) in regions where the mean annual surface temperature is greater than roughly -31 degrees C. Because snow metamorphism, firn density, and FAC are major components in modeling ice sheet surface albedo, melt water retention, and climatic mass balance, these developments advance broader efforts to simulate the response of land ice to atmospheric forcing in earth system models.

关键词： firn densification earth system model snow metamorphism ice sheets surface mass balance firn air content

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CMIP6 Simulations With the CMCC earth system model (CMCC-ESM2)

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JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN modelING earth systemS 2022年第3期14卷

作者： Lovato, T. Peano, D. Butenschon, M. Materia, S. Iovino, D. Scoccimarro, E. Fogli, P. G. Cherchi, A. Bellucci, A. Gualdi, S. Masina, S. Navarra, A. Fdn Ctr Euro Mediterraneo Sui Cambiamenti CMCC Bologna Italy CNR Inst Atmospher Sci & Climate CNR ISAC Bologna Italy Univ Bologna Dept Biol Geol & Environm Sci BIGEA Bologna Italy

This article introduces the second generation CMCC earth system model (CMCC-ESM2) that extends a number of marine and terrestrial biogeochemical processes with respect to its CMIP5 predecessor. In particular, land biogeochemistry was extended to a wider set of carbon pools and plant functional types, along with a prognostic representation of the nitrogen cycle. The marine ecosystem representation was reshaped toward an intermediate complexity of lower trophic level interactions, including an interactive benthic compartment and a new formulation of heterotrophic bacterial population. Details are provided on the model setup and implementation for the different experiments performed as contribution to the sixth phase of the Coupled model Intercomparison Project. CMCC-ESM2 shows an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3.57 degrees C and a transient climate response of 1.97 degrees C which are close to the CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model averages. The evaluation of the coupled climate-carbon response in the historical period against available observational datasets show a consistent representation of both physical and biogeochemical quantities. However, the land carbon sink is found to be weaker than the current global carbon estimates and the simulated marine primary production is slightly below the satellite-based average over recent decades. Future projections coherently show a prominent global warming over the northern hemisphere with intensified precipitations at high latitudes. The expected ranges of variability for oceanic pH and oxygen, as well as land carbon and nitrogen soil storage, compare favorably with those assessed from other CMIP6 models.

关键词： earth system model CMIP6 coupled climate-carbon cycles climate changes global biogeochemical cycles

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The ICON earth system model Version 1.0

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JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN modelING earth systemS 2022年第4期14卷 p1-39页

作者： Jungclaus, J. H. Lorenz, S. J. Schmidt, H. Brovkin, V Brueggemann, N. Chegini, F. Crueger, T. De-Vrese, P. Gayler, V Giorgetta, M. A. Gutjahr, O. Haak, H. Hagemann, S. Hanke, M. Ilyina, T. Korn, P. Kroeger, J. Linardakis, L. Mehlmann, C. Mikolajewicz, U. Mueller, W. A. Nabel, J. E. M. S. Notz, D. Pohlmann, H. Putrasahan, D. A. Raddatz, T. Ramme, L. Redler, R. Reick, C. H. Riddick, T. Sam, T. Schneck, R. Schnur, R. Schupfner, M. Storch, J-S Wachsmann, F. Wieners, K-H Ziemen, F. Stevens, B. Marotzke, J. Claussen, M. Max Planck Inst Meteorol Hamburg Germany Univ Hamburg Ctr Earth Syst Res & Sustainabil CEN Hamburg Germany Univ Hamburg Inst Oceanog Hamburg Germany Helmholtz Zentrum Hamburg Geesthacht Germany Deutsch Klimarechenzentrum Hamburg Germany Max Planck Inst Biogeochem Jena Germany Deutsch Wetterdienst Hamburg Germany Int Max Planck Res Sch Earth Syst Modelling Hamburg Germany

This work documents the ICON-earth system model (ICON-ESM V1.0), the first coupled model based on the ICON (ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic) framework with its unstructured, icosahedral grid concept. The ICON-A atmosphere uses a nonhydrostatic dynamical core and the ocean model ICON-O builds on the same ICON infrastructure, but applies the Boussinesq and hydrostatic approximation and includes a sea-ice model. The ICON-Land module provides a new framework for the modeling of land processes and the terrestrial carbon cycle. The oceanic carbon cycle and biogeochemistry are represented by the Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle module. We describe the tuning and spin-up of a base-line version at a resolution typical for models participating in the Coupled model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The performance of ICON-ESM is assessed by means of a set of standard CMIP6 simulations. Achievements are well-balanced top-of-atmosphere radiation, stable key climate quantities in the control simulation, and a good representation of the historical surface temperature evolution. The model has overall biases, which are comparable to those of other CMIP models, but ICON-ESM performs less well than its predecessor, the Max Planck Institute earth system model. Problematic biases are diagnosed in ICON-ESM in the vertical cloud distribution and the mean zonal wind field. In the ocean, sub-surface temperature and salinity biases are of concern as is a too strong seasonal cycle of the sea-ice cover in both hemispheres. ICON-ESM V1.0 serves as a basis for further developments that will take advantage of ICON-specific properties such as spatially varying resolution, and configurations at very high resolution.

关键词： earth system model

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