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Forecasting the Investors' escalation of commitment in PPP Project at Different Project Stages: A Regression Model Based on the Influence of Social Factors

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ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT JOURNAL 2024年第1期36卷 30-41页

作者： Liu, Jiaqi Liu, Jicai Hu, Jun Southwest Univ Sci & Technol Sch Econ & Management Mianyang Peoples R China Southwest Jiaotong Univ Sch Econ & Management Chengdu Peoples R China Southwest Jiaotong Univ Sch Econ & Management North Sect 1111 2nd Circle Rd Chengdu Peoples R China

In the public-private partnership (PPP) project, social factors are an important reason that leads to the escalation of commitment (EOC) of investors. Firstly, the study identified ten social factors that influence investor's EOC in PPP projects by literature review. Then, 126 valid data were collected by situational questionnaire, and regression models of social factors that influence investors' EOC were built at different stages of project completion. Finally, the study constructed the probability model of the investors' EOC in different stages. It is found that with the progress of the project, investors are more and more inclined to EOC. In different stages, the social factors that play a major role in the investors' EOC are different. Probability models based on the influence of social factors have good prediction ability. The findings can help engineering managers predict the risk of investor's EOC in advance and formulate preventive measures in different stages to promote the success of the project.

关键词： Public-Private Partnership Public-Private Partnership Social Factors Social Factors escalation of commitment escalation of commitment Investor Investor Probability Model Probability Model Decision Making & Risk Management Decision Making & Risk Management Program & Project Management Program & Project Management

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Individual differences in escalation of commitment: a multi-level adaptive learning perspective

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JOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL SOCIAL SCIENCE 2025年第1期8卷 1-23页

作者： Wong, Kin Fai Ellick Kwong, Jessica Y. Y. Yik, Michelle Hong Kong Univ Sci & Technol Dept Management Clear Water Bay Hong Kong Peoples R China Chinese Univ Hong Kong Dept Mkt Shatin Hong Kong Peoples R China Hong Kong Univ Sci & Technol Div Social Sci Clear Water Bay Hong Kong Peoples R China

Previous studies have found stable individual differences in decision-making under escalation situations. Conventionally, the differences have been attributed to dispositional factors. In this paper, we offer multi-level adaptive learning as an alternative, positing that stable individual differences can develop (a) from an equal starting point at which there are no individual differences among all simulated learners, and (b) without the presumption of influences from dispositional factors. The results of three computer simulation studies showed that after sufficient learning trials, simulated individuals developed the key characteristics of stable individual differences in escalation of commitment: (a) a stable escalation tendency, (b) stable individual differences in escalation tendency, (c) decreases in stability of individual differences as more learning occurs, and (d) decreases in test-retest correlation as the test-retest interval increases. The findings suggest that adaptive learning can explain the emergence and development of individual differences in escalation of commitment without the assumption of dispositional factors.

关键词： escalation of commitment Adaptive learning Individual differences Personality Multi-level adaptive learning

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Personality and Crisis Preparedness: The Mediation and Moderation of Narcissistic-Rivalry and escalation of commitment

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SAGE OPEN 2024年第3期14卷

作者： Asnafy-Hetzrony, Dikla Brender-Ilan, Yael Dikla Asnafy Org Consulting Israel Sharon Israel Ariel Univ Ariel Israel

Despite extensive research on organizational crises, there is a need for deeper insight into the personalities of managers involved in crisis management and the interplay of personality traits in crisis preparedness. Crisis management (CM) is pivotal in today's complex and rapidly changing world, involving the strategic process of anticipating, preparing for, and effectively responding to crises that can potentially disrupt an organization. Recent surges in business failures and related corporate crises, along with the varied consequences of COVID-19, emphasize the acute need for effective CM, particularly crisis preparedness (CP). Given that CP in organizations is influenced by various factors, we aimed to develop a model that accurately assesses the impact of individual and situational aspects on CP, drawing on crisis management theory and trait theory as the overarching theoretical basis. Based on a sample of 314 executives and utilizing moderation-mediation analysis, our main findings reveal that narcissistic rivalry fully mediates the positive relationship between conscientiousness and CP. Additionally, escalation of commitment (EoC) moderated the relationship between conscientiousness and narcissistic rivalry, such that managers with high conscientiousness disposed to EoC show a desirable low level of rivalry. In conclusion, while EoC is typically viewed as a negative organizational trait, organizations are advised to prioritize hiring conscientious managers who exhibit a propensity for EoC, provided that the organization can effectively manage this tendency. By taking the proper steps, organizations can benefit from the advantages of managers disposed to EoC while reducing crisis risks. How personality traits affect crisis readiness: The interplay of narcissism, conscientiousness and escalation of commitmentResearch on organizational crises often overlooks the personalities of managers who handle these situations. Effective crisis management is essential in t

关键词： crisis management crisis preparedness personality conscientiousness narcissistic rivalry escalation of commitment

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Sticking with Programs That Do Not Work: The Role of escalation of commitment in Schools

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PREVENTION SCIENCE 2023年第3期24卷 567-576页

作者： Barrett, Courtenay A. Sleesman, Dustin J. Spear, Shelbie E. Clinkscales, Andryce Amin, Tazkira Michigan State Univ E Lansing MI 48824 USA Univ Delaware Newark NJ USA

Schools are the most common site to implement evidence-based prevention programs and practices (EBPs) to improve behavioral and mental health outcomes among children and adolescents. Research has highlighted the critical role of school administrators in the adoption, implementation, and evaluation of such EBPs, focusing on the factors they should consider during the adoption decision and the behaviors needed for successful implementation. However, scholars have only recently begun to focus on the de-adoption or de-implementation of low-value programs and practices to make room for evidence-based alternatives. This study introduces escalation of commitment as a theoretical framework for understanding why school administrators may stick with ineffective programs and practices. escalation of commitment is a robust decision-making bias in which people feel compelled to continue with a course of action even when performance indicators suggest it is not going well. Using grounded theory methodology, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 24 building- and district-level school administrators in the Midwestern United States. Results suggested that escalation of commitment occurs when administrators attribute the underlying causes of poor program performance not to the program itself but instead to issues related to implementation, leadership, or the limitations of the performance indicators themselves. We also identified a variety of psychological, organizational, and external determinants that accentuate administrators' continuance of ineffective prevention programs. Based on our findings, we highlight several contributions to theory and practice.

关键词： escalation of commitment Implementation science Adoption De-adoption De-implementation Strategic abandonment

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Exploring the escalation of commitment to a failing venture in women and men entrepreneurs

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MANAGEMENT RESEARCH REVIEW 2023年第6期46卷 893-913页

作者： Nouri, Pouria Univ Tehran Fac Entrepreneurship Tehran Iran

Purpose escalation of commitment is one of the most influential decision-making biases in entrepreneurs which may incur substantial losses and result in failure by making entrepreneurs allocate an increasing amount of resources to failing plans. Not only is escalation one of the less-researched biases in entrepreneurship but also most of the existing studies have been either limited to specific contexts or exclusively limited to men entrepreneurs. The purpose of this study is to explore the antecedents of escalation of commitment among a sample of Iranian women and men entrepreneurs to address these gaps. Design/methodology/approach By conducting a narrative inquiry, data were collected through semi-structured and in-depth interviews with nine women and 10 men Iranian entrepreneurs who were founder/owners of a small business and had introduced at least one product to the market. Findings According to the findings of this study, the fear of losing autonomy and fear of being blamed by one's family were the main drivers of escalation of commitment among the women entrepreneurs, while overconfidence, sense of responsibility and hoping to gain more profits were the main antecedents of escalation among men entrepreneurs. Originality/value This study is a pioneer in studying the antecedents of the escalation of commitment among women and men entrepreneurs comparatively in the context of a developing country.

关键词： Women entrepreneurs Men entrepreneurs Decision-making biases escalation of commitment Small businesses

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The Effect of Project Names on escalation of commitment in Information Systems Projects

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PROJECT MANAGEMENT JOURNAL 2023年第4期54卷 349-365页

作者： Benschop, Nick Nuijten, Arno L. P. Keil, Mark Wilmink, Kristinka Commandeur, Harry R. Erasmus Univ Erasmus Sch Accounting & Assurance POB 1738 NL-3000 DR Rotterdam Netherlands Open Univ Dept Informat Sci Heerlen Netherlands Georgia State Univ J Mack Robinson Coll Business Dept Comp Informat Syst Atlanta GA USA Erasmus Univ Erasmus Sch Econ Rotterdam Netherlands

This study explores how project names may influence the tendency to escalate commitment through two experiments. Our findings from Experiment 1 show that a positive project name evokes positive affective reactions to the project. These, in turn, are associated with a greater willingness to continue a failing project. Results from Experiment 2 show that a technological project name can similarly evoke more positive affective reactions and a greater willingness to continue but only for decision makers with high technology readiness. For decision makers with low technology readiness the effect was reversed.

关键词： project names project escalation affect heuristic escalation of commitment decision-making

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What does it take to kill a megaproject? The reverse escalation of commitment

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT 2021年第7期39卷 774-787页

作者： Cornelio, Jose Rodrigo Juarez Sainati, Tristano Locatelli, Giorgio Univ Leeds Sch Civil Engn Leeds W Yorkshire England

Polarized political debates can lead to infrastructure megaprojects in advanced stages of construction being left unfinished. Although this scenario is uncommon, there are relevant examples that negatively impact the economy and society. Despite their relevance, unfinished megaprojects are scarcely discussed in project studies. However, political events such as a referendum or government transitions jeopardize the continuation of the megaproject, leading to its termination. This paper focuses on unfinished infrastructure megaprojects and employs the escalation of commitment as a theoretical perspective. It addresses the following research question: How political polarization fosters escalation of commitment leading to unfinished infrastructure megaprojects? The paper employs a longitudinal case study, the USD 13 billion Mexico City New International Airport, recently terminated during the construction phase due to a political decision. The paper describes the interplay between the development of infrastructure megaprojects and political polarization. It shows how political narratives can portray a misleading escalation of commitment to justify project termination, even when it is not rational.

关键词： Infrastructure Megaprojects Governance escalation of commitment Sunk cost

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Construal level theory and escalation of commitment

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THEORY AND DECISION 2021年第1期91卷 135-151页

作者： Benschop, Nick Nuijten, Arno L. P. Keil, Mark Rohde, Kirsten I. M. Lee, Jong Seok Commandeur, Harry R. Erasmus Univ Erasmus Sch Accounting & Assurance Rotterdam Netherlands Open Univ Dept Informat Sci Heerlen Netherlands Georgia State Univ J Mack Robinson Coll Business Dept Comp Informat Syst Atlanta GA 30303 USA Erasmus Univ Erasmus Sch Econ Rotterdam Netherlands Erasmus Univ Tinbergen Inst Rotterdam Netherlands Erasmus Univ Erasmus Res Inst Management Rotterdam Netherlands Univ Tennessee Haslam Coll Business Dept Accounting & Informat Management Knoxville TN USA

escalation of commitment causes people to continue a failing course of action. We study the role of construal level in such escalation of commitment. Consistent with the widely held view of construal level as a primed effect, we employed a commonly used prime for manipulating this construct in a laboratory experiment. Our findings revealed that the prime failed to produce statistically significant differences in construal level, which was measured using the Behavior Identification Form (BIF). Furthermore, there was no effect of the prime on escalation of commitment, or on constructs that have previously been linked to construal level such as the perceived importance of feasibility considerations relative to desirability considerations, and the number of pros and cons that subjects can think of. Interestingly, however, subjects' actual construal level scores on the BIF were found to significantly affect escalation. Specifically, our findings show that people with a low construal level are less willing to continue a failing project. This relation is mediated by the perceived importance of the feasibility of the project relative to its desirability. For people with a low construal level, the perceived importance of feasibility relative to desirability is higher, which in turn makes escalation of commitment less likely. Our findings are consistent with prior research suggesting that priming construal level may not always be effective. Thus, while construal level has typically been regarded as a state-like variable that can be primed, in this study, we show that construal level may also be considered as a trait.

关键词： escalation of commitment Construal level theory (CLT) Project escalation

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When a growth mindset can backfire and cause escalation of commitment to a troubled information technology project

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INFORMATION SYSTEMS JOURNAL 2021年第1期31卷 7-32页

作者： Lee, Jong Seok Keil, Mark Wong, Kin Fai Ellick Univ Tennessee Haslam Coll Business Dept Accounting & Informat Management Knoxville TN 37996 USA Univ Syst Georgia Atlanta GA USA Georgia State Univ J Mack Robinson Coll Business Comp Informat Syst Atlanta GA 30303 USA Hong Kong Univ Sci & Technol Sch Business & Management Clear Water Bay Hong Kong Peoples R China

This research focuses on information technology (IT) project managers' growth mindset concerning IT project management (PM) ability and investigates how such a mindset can promote escalation of commitment to a troubled IT project. Specifically, we suggest that the growth mindset of IT PM ability promotes prospective achievement motivation and can lead IT project managers to escalate their commitment to an IT project despite negative feedback suggesting that the project may not be completed successfully. Through a series of three experiments with 351 IT project managers, we obtained consistent support for our hypotheses suggesting that the growth mindset of IT PM ability promotes IT project escalation and this effect is partially mediated by anticipated regret about project failure and anticipated likelihood of project success. In addition, in the three experiments we found that when the project involves an unfamiliar technology the indirect effect of the growth mindset of IT PM ability through anticipated likelihood of project success is stronger than when the project involves a familiar technology.

关键词： escalation of commitment growth mindset IT project escalation IT project management

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That's why they didn't let it go: exploring the roots of women entrepreneurs' escalation of commitment

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JOURNAL OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN EMERGING ECONOMIES 2021年第2期13卷 213-230页

作者： Nouri, Pouria Univ Tehran Fac Entrepreneurship Dept Business Creat Tehran Iran

Purpose escalation of commitment is one of the most important decision-making biases among entrepreneurs and may deprive them of valuable resources and even result in their eventual failure. Many entrepreneurs become escalated to their ongoing plans by allocating more resources, even after receiving negative feedbacks regarding those plans. Although the escalating behavior is an inherent part of the entrepreneurial cognition, previous studies have mostly ignored its antecedents among entrepreneurs. This dearth of studies is more severe regarding women entrepreneurs, whose biases have rarely been investigated. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the antecedents of the escalation of commitment among women entrepreneurs. Design/methodology/approach To explore the antecedents of the escalation of commitment in women entrepreneurs' decisions based on their lived experiences, this paper used a narrative inquiry. The data were collected by conducting in-depth interviews with three Iranian women entrepreneurs running small businesses and analyzed by narrative data analysis. Findings According to the findings, bitter memories of previous failures, overconfidence and familial pressure are the main antecedents of the escalation of commitment in women entrepreneurs. Practical implications This study has a very important managerial implication for women entrepreneurs, who should know that while decision-making biases may occur unintentionally, they are able to reduce the harmful effects and enhance the benefits of biases by knowing their most common signs. Originality/value This study is a pioneer in exploring women entrepreneurs' biases and took a novel approach by conducting a narrative analysis of women entrepreneurs' escalation of commitment.

关键词： escalation of commitment Narrative inquiry Women entrepreneurs Decision-making biases

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