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Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on the Wiener Process with Measurement Error

ENERGIES 2014年第2期7卷 520-547页

作者： Tang, Shengjin Yu, Chuanqiang Wang, Xue Guo, Xiaosong Si, Xiaosheng High Tech Inst Xian Xian 710025 Shaanxi Peoples R China Tsinghua Univ Dept Precis Instrument Beijing 100084 Peoples R China

Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is central to the prognostics and health management (PHM) of lithium-ion batteries. This paper proposes a novel RUL prediction method for lithium-ion batteries based on the Wiener process with measurement error (WPME). First, we use the truncated normal distribution (TND) based modeling approach for the estimated degradation state and obtain an exact and closed-form RUL distribution by simultaneously considering the measurement uncertainty and the distribution of the estimated drift parameter. Then, the traditional maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method for population based parameters estimation is remedied to improve the estimation efficiency. Additionally, we analyze the relationship between the classic MLE method and the combination of the Bayesian updating algorithm and the expectation maximization algorithm for the real time RUL prediction. Interestingly, it is found that the result of the combination algorithm is equal to the classic MLE method. Inspired by this observation, a heuristic algorithm for the real time parameters updating is presented. Finally, numerical examples and a case study of lithium-ion batteries are provided to substantiate the superiority of the proposed RUL prediction method.

关键词： lithium-ion batteries remaining useful life the Wiener process measurement error prediction truncated normal distribution maximum likelihood estimation Bayesian expectation maximization algorithm

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Combining mixed effects hidden Markov models with latent alternating recurrent event processes to model diurnal active-rest cycles

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BIOMETRICS 2023年第4期79卷 3402-3417页

作者： Ren, Benny Barnett, Ian Univ Penn Dept Biostat Epidemiol & Informat Philadelphia PA 19104 USA

Data collected from wearable devices can shed light on an individual's pattern of behavioral and circadian routine. Phone use can be modeled as alternating processes, between the state of active use and the state of being idle. Markov chains and alternating recurrent event models are commonly used to model state transitions in cases such as these, and the incorporation of random effects can be used to introduce diurnal effects. While state labels can be derived prior to modeling dynamics, this approach omits informative regression covariates that can influence state memberships. We instead propose an alternating recurrent event proportional hazards (PH) regression to model the transitions between latent states. We propose an expectation-maximization algorithm for imputing latent state labels and estimating parameters. We show that our E-step simplifies to the hidden Markov model (HMM) forward-backward algorithm, allowing us to recover an HMM with logistic regression transition probabilities. In addition, we show that PH modeling of discrete-time transitions implicitly penalizes the logistic regression likelihood and results in shrinkage estimators for the relative risk. This new estimator favors an extended stay in a state and is useful for modeling diurnal rhythms. We derive asymptotic distributions for our parameter estimates and compare our approach against competing methods through simulation as well as in a digital phenotyping study that followed smartphone use in a cohort of adolescents with mood disorders.

关键词： alternating recurrent event processes expectation maximization algorithm hidden Markov models latent variable modeling longitudinal data

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Time discretization of continuous-time filters and smoothers for HMM parameter estimation

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IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INFORMATION THEORY 1996年第2期42卷 593-605页

作者： James, MR Krishnamurthy, V LeGland, F UNIV MELBOURNE DEPT ELECT & ELECTR ENGNPARKVILLEVIC 3052AUSTRALIA INST NATL RECH INFORMAT & AUTOMAT INST RECH INFORMAT & SYST ALEATOIRESF-35042 RENNESFRANCE

In this paper we propose algorithms for parameter estimation of fast-sampled homogeneous Markov chains observed in white Gaussian noise. Our algorithms are obtained by the robust discretization of stochastic differential equations involved in the estimation of continuous-time Hidden Markov Models (HMM's) via the EM algorithm. We present two algorithms: The first is based on the robust discretization of continuous-time filters that were recently obtained by Elliott to estimate quantities used in the EM algorithm. The second is based on the discretization of continuous-time smoothers, yielding essentially the well-known Baum-Welch re-estimation equations. The smoothing formulas for continuous-time HMM's are new, and their derivation involves two sided stochastic integrals. The choice of discretization results in equations which are identical to those obtained by deriving the results directly in discrete time. The filter-based EM algorithm has negligible memory requirements;indeed, independent of the number of observations. In comparison the smoother-based discrete-time EM algorithm require the use of the forward-backward algorithm, which is a fixed-interval smoothing algorithm and has memory requirements proportional to the number of observations. On the other hand, the computational complexity of the filter-based EM algorithm is greater than that of the smoother-based scheme. However, the filters may be suitable for parallel implementation. Using computer simulations we compare the smoother-based and filter-based EM algorithms for HMM estimation. We provide also estimates for the discretization error.

关键词： Hidden Markov Models robust discretization expectation maximization algorithm parameter estimation

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Structural network inference from time-series data using a generative model and transfer entropy

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PATTERN RECOGNITION LETTERS 2019年 125卷 357-363页

作者： Zhang, Zhihong Zhang, Genzhou Zhang, Zhonghao Chen, Guo Zeng, Yangbin Wang, Beizhan Hancock, Edwin R. Xiamen Univ Xiamen Fujian Peoples R China State Grid Shaanxi Elect Power Co Xian Shaanxi Peoples R China State Grid Shaanxi Informat & Telecommun Co LTD Xian Shaanxi Peoples R China Univ York York N Yorkshire England

In this paper we develop a novel framework for inferring a generative model of network structure representing the causal relations between data for a set of objects characterized in terms of time series. To do this we make use of transfer entropy as a means of inferring directed information transfer between the time-series data. Transfer entropy allows us to infer directed edges representing the causal relations between pairs of time series, and has thus been used to infer directed graph representations of causal networks for time-series data. We use the expectation maximization algorithm to learn a generative model which captures variations in the causal network over time. We conduct experiments on fMRI brain connectivity data for subjects in different stages of the development of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Here we use the technique to learn class exemplars for different stages in the development of the disease, together with a normal control class, and demonstrate its utility in both graph multi-class and binary classifications. These experiments are showing the effectiveness of our proposed framework when the amounts of training data are relatively small. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Transfer entropy Supergraph Time series Network inference expectation maximization algorithm

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Validity index for crisp and fuzzy clusters

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PATTERN RECOGNITION 2004年第3期37卷 487-501页

作者： Pakhira, MK Bandyopadhyay, S Maulik, U Kalyani Govt Engn Coll Dept Comp Sci & Technol Kalyani 741235 W Bengal India Indian Stat Inst Machine Intelligence Unit Kolkata 700108 W Bengal India Kalyani Govt Engn Coll Dept Comp Sci & Technol Kalyani 741235 W Bengal India

In this article, a cluster validity index and its fuzzification is described, which can provide a measure of goodness of clustering on different partitions of a data set. The maximum value of this index, called the PBM-index, across the hierarchy provides the best partitioning. The index is defined as a product of three factors, maximization of which ensures the formation of a small number of compact clusters with large separation between at least two clusters. We have used both the k-means and the expectation maximization algorithms as underlying crisp clustering techniques. For fuzzy clustering, we have utilized the well-known fuzzy c-means algorithm. Results demonstrating the superiority of the PBM-index in appropriately determining the number of clusters, as compared to three other well-known measures, the Davies-Bouldin index, Dunn's index and the Xie-Beni index, are provided for several artificial and real-life data sets. (C) 2003 Pattern Recognition Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： clustering expectation maximization algorithm fuzzy c-means algorithm k-means algorithm unsupervised classification validity index

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Probability graph complementation contrastive learning

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NEURAL NETWORKS 2024年 179卷 106522页

作者： Jiang, Wenhao Bai, Yuebin Beihang Univ Sch Comp Sci & Engn Beijing 100191 Peoples R China

Graph Neural Network (GNN) has achieved remarkable progress in the field of graph representation learning. The most prominent characteristic, propagating features along the edges, degrades its performance in most heterophilic graphs. Certain researches make attempts to construct KNN graph to improve the graph homophily. However, there is no prior knowledge to choose proper K and they may suffer from the problem of Inconsistent Similarity Distribution (ISD). To accommodate this issue, we propose Probability Graph Complementation Contrastive Learning (PGCCL) which adaptively constructs the complementation graph. We employ Beta Mixture Model (BMM) to distinguish intra-class similarity and inter-class similarity. Based on the posterior probability, we construct Probability Complementation Graphs to form contrastive views. The contrastive learning prompts the model to preserve complementary information for each node from different views. By combining original graph embedding and complementary graph embedding, the final embedding is able to capture rich semantics in the finetuning stage. At last, comprehensive experimental results on 20 datasets including homophilic and heterophilic graphs firmly verify the effectiveness of our algorithm as well as the quality of probability complementation graph compared with other state-of-the-art methods.

关键词： Heterophily Graph contrastive learning Graph complementation Beta mixture model expectation maximization algorithm

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Controlling for misclassified land use data: A post-classification latent multinomial logit approach

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REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT 2015年 170卷 203-215页

作者： Martinez, Raymundo Marcos Baerenldau, Kenneth A. Univ Calif Riverside Dept Environm Sci Riverside CA 92521 USA

Terrain and landscape complexities can limit the accurate discrimination of land use categories with similar spectral signatures, as well as the accurate detection of land use change in temporal analyses of landscape dynamics. Studies based on misclassified land use data can generate biased parameter estimates and standard errors, inaccurate predictions, and incorrect policy recommendations. To address these challenges and improve the accuracy of land use analyses, we implement a post-classification strategy to detect misclassified land use observations using a latent multinomial logit model. This strategy is tested using both Monte Carlo simulations and a time series dataset based on supervised classification of remotely sensed data corresponding to land use decisions observed in a Mexican coffee growing region during the period 1984-2006. The results indicate that the strategy is useful for identifying land use observations with a high probability of being wrongly classified, even between categories with low discriminative spectral signatures. Reclassification of the land use data, based on the model results, increases the magnitudes of the marginal effects of the analyzed land use drivers in the theoretically expected directions, and in some cases improves the statistical significance of the parameter estimates. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

关键词： Land use Misclassification Latent multinomial logit model expectation maximization algorithm Transition rules Landsat Agroforests Monte Carlo simulation

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A reassessment of dynamic characteristics of the Quincy Bayview Bridge using output-only identification techniques

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EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING & STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS 2005年第7期34卷 787-805页

作者： Pridham, BA Wilson, JC McMaster Univ Dept Civil Engn Hamilton ON L8S 4L7 Canada

A reassessment of the dynamic characteristics of the 542 m cable-stayed Bayview Bridge in Quincy, Illinois, is presented using a newly developed output-only system identification technique. The technique is applied to an extensive set of ambient vibration response data acquired from the bridge in 1987. Vertical, torsional and transverse modal frequencies of the deck are identified, and uncertainty in damping values are estimated using an automated procedure on several redundant measurements at four locations. Important practical implementation issues associated with the implementation of the procedure and selection of algorithm design parameters for stochastic subspace identification techniques are discussed. An overall mean and standard deviation of damping of 1.0 +/- 0.8% is estimated considering all identified vertical, torsional and transverse modes in the 0-2 Hz band. The mean damping for the fundamental vertical mode (0.37 Hz) is identified as 1.4 +/- 0.5%, and for the first coupled torsion-transverse mode (0.56 Hz) is identified as 1.1 +/- 0.8%. Variability in the damping estimates is shown to decrease as estimated modal RMS acceleration levels increase. Standard deviations on estimated damping range from 0.05% to 2%. The results are shown to be a substantial improvement in the evaluation of damping compared to earlier spectral analysis conducted on the same data set. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

关键词： ambient vibration cable-stayed bridges damping Quincy Bayview Bridge system identification stochastic subspace methods expectation maximization algorithm outputonly identification

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Moving window adaptive soft sensor for state shifting process based on weighted supervised latent factor analysis

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CONTROL ENGINEERING PRACTICE 2017年 61卷 72-80页

作者： Yao, Le Ge, Zhiqiang Zhejiang Univ Coll Control Sci & Engn Inst Ind Proc Control State Key Lab Ind Control Technol Hangzhou 310027 Zhejiang Peoples R China

Process nonlinearity and state shifting are two of the main factors that cause poor performance of online soft sensors. Adaptive soft sensor is a common practice to ensure high predictive accuracy. In this paper, the moving window method is introduced to the supervised latent factor analysis model to capture the state shifting feature of the process. To make the moving window strategy more efficient, the weighted form of the supervised latent factor analysis approach is applied. In this method, contributions of training samples are expressed through incorporating the similarity index into the noise variance of the process variable, which renders strong adaptability of the method for describing nonlinear relationships and abrupt changes of the process. A numerical example and a real industrial process are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive soft sensor.

关键词： Adaptive soft sensor State shifting Moving window Weighted supervised latent factor analysis expectation maximization algorithm

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A New Method for Maximum Likelihood Parameter Estimation of Gamma-Gamma Distribution

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JOURNAL OF LIGHTWAVE TECHNOLOGY 2013年第9期31卷 1347-1353页

作者： Kazeminia, Mahdi Mehrjoo, Mehri Univ Sistan & Baluchestan Dept Telecommun Zahedan 98155987 Iran

We propose a method to obtain the maximum likelihood (ML) parameter estimation of the Gamma-Gamma (Gamma - Gamma) distribution representing the free space optical (FSO) channel irradiance fluctuations. The proposed method is based on the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm and the generalized Newton method using a non-quadratic approximation. The numerical results show that, for all turbulence conditions, the proposed ML method is more accurate than the fractional moments (FMOM) method and the numerical ML method (two dimensional numerical maximization of log-likelihood function using the Nelder-Mead algorithm). Moreover, the proposed ML is a fast and stable iterative method, because the iterations always converge to the global optimum with high convergence rate.

关键词： expectation maximization algorithm free space optical communications generalized Newton method maximum likelihood parameter estimation

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