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An approach for analyzing and managing flexibility in engineering systems design based on decision rules and multistage stochastic programming

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IISE TRANSACTIONS 2017年第1期49卷 1-12页

作者： Cardin, Michel-Alexandre Xie, Qihui Ng, Tsan Sheng Wang, Shuming Hu, Junfei Natl Univ Singapore Dept Ind & Syst Engn Singapore Singapore Univ Chinese Acad Sci Sch Econ & Management Beijing Peoples R China Northwestern Polytech Univ Sch Management Xian Peoples R China

This article introduces an approach to assess the value and manage flexibility in engineering systems design based on decision rules and stochastic programming. The approach differs from standard Real Options Analysis (ROA) that relies on dynamic programming in that it parameterizes the decision variables used to design and manage the flexible system in operations. Decision rules are based on heuristic-triggering mechanisms that are used by Decision Makers (DMs) to determine when it is appropriate to exercise the flexibility. They can be treated similarly as, and combined with, physical design variables, and optimal values can be determined using multistage stochastic programming techniques. The proposed approach is applied as demonstration to the analysis of a flexible hybrid waste-to-energy system with two independent flexibility strategies under two independent uncertainty drivers in an urban environment subject to growing waste generation. Results show that the proposed approach recognizes the value of flexibility to a similar extent as the standard ROA. The form of the solution provides intuitive guidelines to DMs for exercising the flexibility in operations. The demonstration shows that the method is suitable to analyze complex systems and problems when multiple uncertainty sources and different flexibility strategies are considered simultaneously.

关键词： flexibility in engineering design real options analysis stochastic programming decision rule waste-to-energy system

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Generating flexibility in the design of engineering systems to enable better sustainability and lifecycle performance

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RESEARCH IN engineering design 2015年第2期26卷 121-143页

作者： Hu, Junfei Cardin, Michel-Alexandre Natl Univ Singapore Dept Ind & Syst Engn Singapore 117576 Singapore

designing an engineering system that is both environmentally and economically sustainable is a challenging task. designers need to cope with socio-technical uncertainties and design systems to provide high performance during long lifecycles. flexibility in engineering design provides ways to address such challenges by making engineering systems changeable in the face of uncertainty. It is difficult, however, to identify suitable system elements for designing flexibility, especially when subjected to multiple sources of uncertainty and complex interdependency between socio-technical and systems elements. This paper considers embedding flexibility into the engineering design as a mechanism to ensure better sustainability and to improve economic performance in long-term lifecycles. The main contribution is a novel methodology to identify valuable opportunities to embed flexibility as a way to deal pro-actively with uncertainty in market and environment. The proposed methodology integrates Bayesian network into engineering system design to effectively model complex change propagation in the flexibility identification process. It helps structure concept generation activities by identifying candidate areas to embed flexibility in the system. It compares favorably to other concept generation methods (e.g., prompting, brainstorming) that require modeling and evaluation of a large number of concepts generated in order to identify the ones offering better performance. It differs from other flexibility enabler identification methods by considering indirect as well as direct dependencies, in addition to the probabilistic nature and risk resulting from possible changes. Another contribution is the demonstration application of the proposed methodology through the analysis of a waste-to-energy technology in Singapore based on anaerobic digestion. Results show that the expected net present value of the flexible design concepts provides more than 10 % improvement over a fixed benchm

关键词： Sustainability Uncertainty management flexibility in engineering design Waste-to-energy system Real options analysis Change propagation

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The value of jumboization in transportation ships: A real options approach

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IISE TRANSACTIONS 2022年第9期54卷 858-868页

作者： Kucuksayacigil, Fikri Min, K. Jo Univ Calif San Diego Sch Global Policy & Strategy San Diego CA USA Iowa State Univ Ind & Mfg Syst Engn Dept Ames IA 50011 USA

In the presence of budget constraints, "jumboization," has been adopted as a practical solution to meet increased transportation needs. By jumboization, we mean increasing the capacity of a ship by extending its length at a future date. There are, however, two kinds of jumboization: Fixed design (retrofitting) and flexible design. With fixed design, the initial construction cost is lower, but the subsequent jumboization cost is higher. With flexible design, the initial construction cost is higher, but the subsequent jumboization cost is lower. In this article, for both designs, we build and analyze economic decision models, and show how to value the option to jumboize. Our framework utilizes a stochastic optimal control approach that considers the volume of transportation needs (the demand) as an underlying uncertain factor. Under the criterion of cost savings maximization, we determine optimal threshold demand level to jumboize. Through analytical and numerical analyses, we obtain conditions under which the flexible design is preferred over fixed design, and vice versa. A comprehensive, illustrative example is also provided.

关键词： engineering design flexibility in engineering design jumboization vehicle capacity expansion real options

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Empirical evaluation of procedures to generate flexibility in engineering systems and improve lifecycle performance

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RESEARCH IN engineering design 2013年第3期24卷 277-295页

作者： Cardin, Michel-Alexandre Kolfschoten, Gwendolyn L. Frey, Daniel D. de Neufville, Richard de Weck, Olivier L. Geltner, David M. Natl Univ Singapore Dept Ind & Syst Engn Singapore 117576 Singapore Delft Univ Technol Fac Technol Policy & Management NL-2628 BX Delft Netherlands MIT Dept Mech Engn Cambridge MA 02139 USA MIT Engn Syst Div Cambridge MA 02139 USA MIT Dept Aeronaut & Astronaut Cambridge MA 02139 USA MIT Dept Urban Studies & Planning Cambridge MA 02139 USA

The design of engineering systems like airports, communication infrastructures, and real estate projects today is growing in complexity. designers need to consider socio-technical uncertainties, intricacies, and processes in the long-term strategic deployment and operations of these systems. flexibility in engineering design provides ways to deal with this complexity. It enables engineering systems to change in the face of uncertainty to reduce impacts from downside scenarios (e.g., unfavorable market conditions) while capitalizing on upside opportunities (e.g., new technology). Many case studies have shown that flexibility can improve anticipated lifecycle performance (e.g., expected economic value) compared to current design and evaluation approaches. It is a difficult process requiring guidance and must be done at an early conceptual stage. The literature offers little guidance on procedures helping designers do this systematically in a collaborative context. This study investigated the effects of two educational training procedures on flexibility (current vs. explicit) and two ideation procedures (free undirected brainstorming vs. prompting) to guide this process and improve anticipated lifecycle performance. Controlled experiments were conducted with ninety participants working on a simplified engineering systems design problem. Results suggest that a prompting mechanism for flexibility can help generate more flexible design concepts than free undirected brainstorming. These concepts can improve performance significantly (by up to 36 %) compared to a benchmark design-even though users did not expect improved quality of results. Explicit training on flexibility can improve user satisfaction with the process, results, and results quality in comparison with current engineering and design training on flexibility. These findings give insights into the crafting and application of simple, intuitive, and efficient procedures to improve lifecycle performance by means of

关键词： Conceptual design design procedures Empirical evaluation flexibility in engineering design Real options

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Real options and flexibility analysis in design and management of one-way mobility on-demand systems using decision rules

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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART C-EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES 2017年 84卷 265-287页

作者： Cardin, Michel-Alexandre Deng, Yinghan Sun, Chang Natl Univ Singapore Dept Ind Syst Engn & Management Block E1A 06-251 Engn Dr 2 Singapore 117576 Singapore

This study explores the concepts of real options and flexibility analysis as an approach to address uncertain demand growth in mobility on-demand (MoD) vehicle-sharing systems, with the goal of improving expected lifecycle performance. As MoD systems are gaining popularity Worldwide, they inevitably face significant uncertainty in terms of needs and customer demands. designing, planning capacity deployment, and operating such system can be challenging, and require significant capital investments for companies and cities. Two distinct real options analysis (ROA) models are developed to evaluate and optimize flexible strategies for these systems, relying on a novel methodological approach to value flexibility based on decision rules. The decision-rule-based approach differs from standard ROA approaches used to quantify the value of flexibility in irreversible investment projects, typically based on dynamic programming. It emulates the decision-making process by capturing mathematically a triggering mechanism that determines when it is best to exercise the flexibilities embedded in the system design. Two prevalent types of MoD systems are studied in this paper as demonstration of the methodological framework: a station-based system where customers must pick up and return the vehicle at specific locations, and a free-floating system, where customers may pick up and drop the car anywhere within a certain area. A simulation-based approach is used to analyze the station-based system, which models the rebalancing operations from a micro-level perspective. The approach consists of a discrete event simulator for performance estimation, and an optimization algorithm for design space exploration that integrates a population-based search algorithm with Optimal Computing Budget Allocation (OCBA). For the free-floating system, an analytical model is developed where the decision rule is formulated into and solved using stochastic mixed integer programming (MIP). The study provides

关键词： Mobility on-demand transportation flexibility in engineering design Simulation-based optimization Stochastic programming Real options analysis

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flexibility and real options analysis in emergency medical services systems using decision rules and multi-stage stochastic programming

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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART E-LOGISTICS AND TRANSPORTATION REVIEW 2017年第Nov.期107卷 120-140页

作者： Zhang, Sizhe Cardin, Michel-Alexandre Natl Univ Singapore Dept Ind Syst Engn & Management Block E1A 06-251 Engn Dr 2 Singapore 117576 Singapore

A novel approach to EMS infrastructure systems design, planning, and operations under long-term uncertainty is introduced based on multi-stage stochastic programming and decision rules, accounting for strategic flexibility (also known as real options - RO). Different from standard RO analysis, the approach mimics real-world decision-making by exercising flexibility based on conditional-go decision rules. The objective is to minimize the expected total costs over the system's life cycle, and the outputs are the optimal initial configuration and decision rules. A flexible solution provides lower expected cost than stochastically optimal rigid solutions, especially valuable when required incident coverage rate is >95%. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： flexibility in engineering design Real options analysis Emergency medical services Multi-stage stochastic programming Decision rules

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Economic Evaluation of flexibility in the design of IGCC Plants with Integrated Membrane Reactor Modules

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SYSTEMS engineering 2015年第2期18卷 208-227页

作者： Zhang, Juzheng Cardin, Michel-Alexandre Kazantzis, Nikolaos Ng, Simon K. K. Ma, Y. H. Natl Univ Singapore Dept Ind & Syst Engn Singapore 117548 Singapore Worcester Polytech Inst Dept Chem Engn Ctr Inorgan Membranes Worcester MA USA Univ Cambridge Cambridge England

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle with embedded membrane reactor modules (IGCC-MR) represents a new technology option for the coproduction of electricity and pure hydrogen endowed with enhanced environmental performance capacity. It is viewed as an alternative to conventional coal-and gas-fired power generation technologies. An IGCC-MR power plant needs to be techno-economically evaluated in the presence of irreducible regulatory and fuel market uncertainties for the potential deployment of an initial fleet of demonstration plants at the commercial scale. This paper applies a systematic methodological framework to assess the economic value of flexible alternatives in the design and operation of an IGCC-MR plant under the aforementioned sources of uncertainty. The main objective is to demonstrate the potential value enhancements associated with the long-term economic performance of flexible IGCC-MR project investments, by managing the uncertainty associated with future environmental regulations and fuel costs. The paper provides an overview of promising design flexibility concepts for IGCC-MR power plants and focuses on operational and constructional systems flexibility. Operational flexibility is realized through temporary plant shutdown with considerations of regulatory and market uncertainties. Constructional flexibility is realized by considering the installation of a Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) unit at three strategic periods: (1) installation at the initial construction phase, (2) retrofitting at a later stage, and (3) retrofitting at a later stage with preinvestment. Monte Carlo simulations and financial analysis demonstrate that, in the presence of irreducible uncertainty, the most economically advantageous flexibility option is to install CCS in the initial IGCC-MR construction phase. (C) 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

关键词： carbon capture and storage (CCS) flexibility in engineering design integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) membrane reactor technology real options analysis

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A Process to Analyze Strategic design and Management Decisions Under Uncertainty in Complex Entrepreneurial Systems

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SYSTEMS engineering 2015年第6期18卷 604-624页

作者： De Lessio, Mark P. Cardin, Michel-Alexandre Astaman, Angel Djie, Valerie Natl Univ Singapore Dept Ind & Syst Engn Block E1A 06-251 Engn Dr 2 Singapore 117576 Singapore

This paper proposes a process to support strategic design and management of complex entrepreneurial systems under uncertainty. The process is designed to help designers and decisions-makers readily identify valuable opportunities for flexibility as a way to deal pro-actively with uncertainty and improve strategically the lifecycle performance of the system as it is designed, deployed, and managed in operations. The process relies on the novel concept of a layered design structure matrix (DSM), which provides gradually a systems-level representation of the enterprise system starting at an early stage, and gaining more details as more information becomes available about the system and its environment. The resulting layered DSM is used to identify performance-enhancing flexibility strategies in the design and management of the system. The flexibility, providing the "right, but not the obligation, to change the system in the face of uncertainty" provides contingencies to minimize exposure to downside risks, and to enable the system to capture upside opportunities-thereby improving expected lifecycle performance. The process is applied as a demonstration to the analysis of a startup system in the sector of mobility on-demand transportation. Strategic-level opportunities for flexibility are identified systematically, and real options analysis is used to demonstrate quantitatively lifecycle performance improvement as compared to baseline design concepts. (C) 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

关键词： entrepreneurial organization design structure matrix flexibility in engineering design mobility on-demand transportation real options analysis

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Strategic real option and flexibility analysis for nuclear power plants considering uncertainty in electricity demand and public acceptance

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ENERGY ECONOMICS 2017年 64卷 226-237页

作者： Cardin, Michel-Alexandre Zhang, Sizhe Nuttall, William J. Natl Univ Singapore Dept Ind & Syst Engn Block E1A 06-251 Engn Dr 2 Singapore 117576 Singapore Open Univ Dept Engn & Innovat Milton Keynes MK7 6AA Bucks England

Nuclear power is an important energy source especially in consideration of CO2 emissions and global warming. Deploying nuclear power plants, however, may be challenging when uncertainty in long-term electricity demand and more importantly public acceptance are considered. This is true especially for emerging economies (e.g., India, China) concerned with reducing their carbon footprint in the context of growing economic development, while accommodating a growing population and significantly changing demographics, as well as recent events that may affect the public's perception of nuclear technology. In the aftermath of the Fukushima Daiichi disaster, public acceptance has come to play a central role in continued operations and deployment of new nuclear power systems worldwide. In countries seeing importantlong-term demographic changes, it may be difficult to determine the future capacity needed, when and where to deploy it over time, and in the most economic manner. Existing studies on capacity deployment typically do not consider such uncertainty drivers in long-term capacity deployment analyses (e.g., +40 years). To address these issues, this paper introduces a novel approach to nuclear power systems design and capacity deployment under uncertainty that exploits the idea of strategic flexibility and managerial decision rules. The approach enables dealing more pro-actively with uncertainty and helps identify the most economic deployment paths for new nuclear capacity deployment over multiple sites. One novelty of the study lies in the explicit recognition of public acceptance as an important uncertainty driver affecting economic performance, along with long-term electricity demand. Another novelty is in how the concept of flexibility is exploited to deal with uncertainty and improve expected lifecycle performance (e.g. cost). New design and deployment strategies are developed and analyzed through a multistage stochastic programming framework where decision rules are

关键词： Nuclear power plant flexibility in engineering design Real options analysis Decision rules Public acceptance Stochastic programming

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EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF FLEXIBLE design CONCEPT GENERATION PROCEDURES: A STUDY IN EMERGENCY SERVICES

EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF FLEXIBLE DESIGN CONCEPT GENERATION P...

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19th International Conference on engineering design (ICED)

作者： Cardin, Michel-Alexandre Ka-Ho Yue, Howard Jiang, Yixin Deng, Yinghan Santhanakrishnan, Deepak Natl Univ Singapore Singapore 117576 Singapore

ISBN: (纸本)9781904670506

This paper presents the results of an empirical study of concept generation procedures enabling flexibility in engineering systems design. Evaluation of two educational training procedures (analogies vs. explicit) and two ideation procedures (free undirected brainstorming vs. prompting) was done. The procedures aim to improve quantitative lifecycle performance, while providing users with satisfaction with the process. Controlled experiments involved ninety participants working on a design problem in emergency services. Results suggest that combining explicit training on flexibility and free undirected brainstorming was best to improve lifecycle performance, measured as average response time and net present cost of infrastructure. No statistically significant effect was measured when comparing procedures against one another based on lifecycle performance, suggesting that any procedure could be used. Analogies combined with free undirected brainstorming led to better process satisfaction for users. The results give insights on the true effects of concept generation procedures, considering quantitative performance impacts, as well as qualitative user impressions.

关键词： collaborative design creativity design methods flexibility in engineering design real options

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